On Thu, May 28, 2009 at 3:49 PM, Bruno Marchal <marc...@ulb.ac.be> wrote:
> What do you thing is the more probable events that you will live which
> one is the more probable? What is your most rational choice among

So if nothing is riding on the outcome of my choice, then it seems
rational to choose the option that will make me right in the most
futures, which is option 6, white noise.  If there's one world for
each unique pattern of pixels, then most of those worlds will be
"white noise" worlds, and making the choice that makes me right in the
most worlds seems as rational as anything else.

Though, if there is something significant riding on whether I choose
correctly or not, then I have to decide what is most important to me:
minimizing my suffering in the worlds where I'm wrong, or maximizing
my gains in the worlds where I'm right.

If there isn't significant suffering likely in the losing worlds, then
I will be much more likely to base my decision on the observed or
calculated probabilities, as Papineau suggests.

BUT, if there is significant suffering likely in the worlds where I
lose, I might very well focus making a choice that will minimize that
suffering.  In which case I will generally not base much of my
decision on the "probabilities", since it is my view that all outcomes

However, going a little further, this assumes that I only make one
bet.  As I mentioned before, I think that I will make all possible
bets.  So, even if I make the "safe" suffering-minimizing bet in this
branch, I know that in a closely related branch I will make the risky
"gain-maximizing" bet and say to hell with the Kellys in the losing

So I know that even if I make the safe bet, there's another Kelly two
worlds over making the risky bet, which will result in a Kelly
suffering the consequences of losing over there anyway.  So maybe I'll
say, "screw it", and make the risky bet myself.

Ultimately, it doesn't matter.  Every Kelly in every situation with
every history is actualized.  So my subjective feeling that I am
making choices is irrelevant.  Every choice is going to get made, so
my "choice" is really just me taking my place in the continuum of

> And I am asking you, here and now, what do you expect the most
> probable experience you will feel tomorrow, when I will do that
> experiment.

So to speak of expectations is to appeal to my "single world"
intuitions.  But we know that intuition isn't a reliable guide, since
there are many aspects of reality that are unintuitive.  So I think
the fact that I have an intuitive expectation that things will happen
a certain way, and only that way, is neither here nor there.

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