Or to be exact, is humanity fucked? Or at least the vast majority of it - I can imagine some of us surviving even a catastrophic ecological collapse. But leaving aside the horrible thought that we might go 99% extinct, is there any chance for the survivors, at least, having a long term future?
I suspect not, because the chances are they would be unable to sustain anything like our present level of technology. A tribal or medieval human race is unlikely to last out. All the readily available fossil fuels have been burned, which makes another industrial revolution unlikely - even assuming they could learn the lessons of the past and headed towards sustainability a.s.a.p., they'd need that initial kick-start. And without attaining at least our present level of technology they would have no defence against normal planetary disaster - comet impacts, supervolcanoes, etc. So in the long run it's goodnight Vienna, and the silence of the stars, as noted by SETI, continues. On 31 October 2013 10:12, meekerdb <[email protected]> wrote: > > -------- Original Message ------- > >> On the subject of completely fucked up : >> >> In December 2012, a pink-haired complex systems researcher named Brad >> Werner made his way through the throng of 24,000 earth and space scientists >> at the Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, held annually in San >> Francisco. This year’s conference had some big-name participants, from Ed >> Stone of Nasa’s Voyager project, explaining a new milestone on the path to >> interstellar space, to the film-maker James Cameron, discussing his >> adventures in deep-sea submersibles. >> >> But it was Werner’s own session that was attracting much of the buzz. It >> was titled “Is Earth F**ked?” (full title: “Is Earth F**ked? Dynamical >> Futility of Global Environmental Management and Possibilities for >> Sustainability via Direct Action Activism”). >> >> Standing at the front of the conference room, the geophysicist from the >> University of California, San Diego walked the crowd through the advanced >> computer model he was using to answer that question. He talked about system >> boundaries, perturbations, dissipation, attractors, bifurcations and a >> whole bunch of other stuff largely incomprehensible to those of us >> uninitiated in complex systems theory. But the bottom line was clear >> enough: global capitalism has made the depletion of resources so rapid, >> convenient and barrier-free that “earth-human systems” are becoming >> dangerously unstable in response. When pressed by a journalist for a clear >> answer on the “are we f**ked” question, Werner set the jargon aside and >> replied, “More or less.” >> >> Read the rest: http://www.newstatesman.com/2013/10/science-says-revolt >> > It is the case that our situation is beyond rescue. Even if a turn > around is to happen it may not be until 2025 before the political direction > is seriously changed. Even then one has to consider the economic inertia > still to overcome, where this inertia is fossil fueled economic activity. > This then means we will have to engage in geo-engineering, which will be a > part of trying to manage our situation that is becoming increasingly > unstable and that involves exponential trends in growth, change and > complexity. We might only at best be shifting the collapse or implosion > time a few decades; a century if we are lucky.**** > > ** ** > > It is curious that science and religion do seem to be converging on one > point; the end is nigh. The “end” here though is somewhat different, and > religion proposes a certain faith based escape or end-run plan around the > implosion. Science offers no such thing, except maybe a way to hunker > down on the moon or Mars long enough in order to come back to Earth. The > source of this end is also different, science tells us things about energy > and environment, religion focuses on our moral failings and sexual > peccadilloes. > LC > > > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
