On 31 October 2013 11:40, meekerdb <meeke...@verizon.net> wrote:

> On 10/30/2013 2:54 PM, LizR wrote:
>
>> Or to be exact, is humanity fucked? Or at least the vast majority of it -
>> I can imagine some of us surviving even a catastrophic ecological collapse.
>> But leaving aside the horrible thought that we might go 99% extinct, is
>> there any chance for the survivors, at least, having a long term future?
>>
>> I suspect not, because the chances are they would be unable to sustain
>> anything like our present level of technology.
>>
>
> We survived about 200Myr with no more technology than flint chipping.
>
> We didn't. When the sky fell, small mammals which hadn't yet lost their
pelts or gone in for huge brains and long childhoods did.

>
>  A tribal or medieval human race is unlikely to last out. All the readily
>> available fossil fuels have been burned, which makes another industrial
>> revolution unlikely - even assuming they could learn the lessons of the
>> past and headed towards sustainability a.s.a.p., they'd need that initial
>> kick-start. And without attaining at least our present level of technology
>> they would have no defence against normal planetary disaster - comet
>> impacts, supervolcanoes, etc.
>>
>
> I don't think we have any defense against those now.  Hell, we don't even
> have a defense against global warming and it's US.
>

My point, such as it is, is that we're at least in a position to create
such defences now, or will be soon if we continue on our current trajectory
(and fix all the attendant problems).

Whereas if we revert to anything prior to the industrial revolution, after
a while we won't even have the *concept* of an asteroid impact (for
example). At which point an impact could easily wipe out the human race
(which by then would probably only be a few million people).

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