On Tue, Aug 2, 2016 at 2:56 PM, Bruno Marchal <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> The question is not about duplication.
OK.
>
> Do you agree that if today, someone is "sure" that tomorrow (or any
> precise time later) he will be uncertain of an outcome of a certain
> experience, then he can say, today, that he is uncertain about that future
> outcome.
>
Sure, he can say whatever he wants because being sure and being correct
are two entirely different things.
>
> For example, if I promise myself to buy a lottery ticket next week. I am
> pretty sure now that next week I will
>
> be unsure winning something
>
I've been known to break promises to myself before. If I didn't buy the
ticket I'd absolutely certain I won't win the lottery next week, if I do
buy the ticket I'd be almost certain I won't win next week. I'll have to
wait till next week to find out if in addition to being certain I was also
correct.
And because you said right at the start that people duplicating machines
are not involved this time personal pronouns can be used without
ambiguity.
> >
> or not with that ticket, so I consider myself to be uncertain right now
> about winning or not the lottery next week.
>
> So I repeat, the principle questioned here says that if at t_0
>
> P("I will be uncertain of the outcome of some experience at t_1") = 1
>
> then
>
> The outcome of the experience at t_1 is uncertain at t_0.
>
You can be certain and wrong, and uncertain and correct. I will say that
if I don't know fact X tomorow but I do know fact X now then sometime
between today and tomorrow part of my memory must have been be erased. It's
called "forgetting". But I haven't forgotten you said " The question is not
about duplication" and that means "*I"* duplicating Machines are not
involved, and that is the only reason it wasn't gibberish when you said "*I
*will be uncertain of the...".
John K Clark
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