On 7/1/2019 12:18 PM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:


Le lun. 1 juil. 2019 à 20:01, 'Brent Meeker' via Everything List <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> a écrit :



    On 7/1/2019 5:16 AM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:


    Le lun. 1 juil. 2019 à 13:35, Bruce Kellett
    <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> a écrit :

        On Mon, Jul 1, 2019 at 5:32 PM Quentin Anciaux
        <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:

            Le lun. 1 juil. 2019 à 09:19, Bruce Kellett
            <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> a
            écrit :

                On Mon, Jul 1, 2019 at 5:11 PM Quentin Anciaux
                <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:

                    Le lun. 1 juil. 2019 à 07:02, 'Brent Meeker' via
                    Everything List <[email protected]
                    <mailto:[email protected]>> a écrit :

                        On 6/30/2019 11:48 AM, Bruno Marchal wrote:
                        >> On 28 Jun 2019, at 22:31, 'Brent Meeker'
                        via Everything List
                        <[email protected]
                        <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
                        >>
                        >>
                        >>
                        >> On 6/28/2019 8:06 AM, Bruno Marchal wrote:
                        >>> Quentin is right on this, we cannot
                        sample a random “observer moment” (cf ASSA,
                        Absolute Self-Sampling Assumption) without
                        taking the structure of that set into
                        account. With Mechanism, we can use only a
                        Relative SSA, both intuitively and formally,
                        by incompleteness which distinguish between
                        provable(p) and “provable(p) & consistent”.
                        >> The structure Quentin cited is ordering.
                        > Good insight, but very natural for being
                        supported by computations, which can be
                        typically seen as growing trees. It is the
                        state of knowledge of some subject, and this
                        fit well with its S4Grz logic, which provides
                        an Intuionist logic for the subject, often
                        having semantics in term of order, or partial
                        order.
                        >
                        >
                        >
                        >> But how does that force RSSA in my example
                        of taking a journey, which is also ordered?
                        > It is the whole bayesian idea which does
                        not make sense. I state of consciousness
                        cannot be sampled on all states, the
                        probabilities are related to
                        histories/computations, with a relative
                        measure conditioned by some mental state (of
                        a Löbian machine in arithmetic to do the math).
                        >
                        > Nothing is obvious here. That is why I
                        “interview” the (Löbian) universal machine,
                        like PA and ZF.  Both agrees, the traditional
                        nuance brought by the neoplatonic on truth
                        are differentiated due to incompleteness, and
                        the probabilities are on the sigma_1 true
                        propositions structured by the provability
                        logics and the intensional variants given by
                        those definitions.
                        >
                        > Also, how do you know that we are we not
                        already very old? Perhaps even more so if the
                        Big-bang admits a long preceding history,
                        like branes wandering before colliding … (not
                        that I believe in Brane or string except in
                        arithmetic and Number theory). But that is
                        irrelevant, because the self-sample is not on
                        all the moments, but more on the consistent
                        histories, structure by the laws of computer
                        science/arithmetic, …

                        So what?  If QI is true then there are
                        infinitely long consistent
                        histories.  Are you saying that the measure
                        is just the number of
                        consistent histories, independent of their
                        length?...a measure likely to
                        be dominated by fetuses.


                    The problem with your argument is it rely on the
                    "fact" that we should only *ever* really live one
                    moment and to expect to be in that moment (either
                    old or fetuses or whatever doesn't matter)... But
                    life is not a single moment, it is a succession
                    of ordered moments... so your argument is absurd.
                    You don't come into existence into a random "moment".


                But you spend more 'time' living between the ages of
                40 and 90 than you do between the ages of 1 and 20!


            And so what ? you have to have been 20 to be then between
            40 and 90... your moments are successive *and not picked
            up at random*.


        That does not address the point that I made -- there are more
        moments between 40 and 90 than between 1 and 20, so you spend
        more time in your mature years. Pick a time at random, you
        are likely to be mature. Your points about ordering and
        succession are completely irrelevant to the main point being
        made.


    Again *we don't pick our life moment at random*... I'm living
    *every day, every second* of my life, there is no wonder to live
    your life, if your theory is that every human should be between
    40 and 90, because they have more moments between 40 and 90 than
    between 1 and 20, it's absurd... and false.

    Actually it's true that there are more humans between 40 and 90
    than between 1 and 20.  But that's what you would call ASSA.  The
    original point was about one's personal experience and why is it
    not, with high probability, about being very, very old compared to
    those around you?



Because the premise of the question implies there is an absolute probability associated to every moment or range of moments, that premise is non sensical. Life is a succession of ordered moment, like a program is a succession of ordered steps, it's not meaningful to ask the absolute probability of step n of program x. To be at step N you had to do every previous step.

You can't seem to draw any conclusions from your theory, except that other theories are wrong.  So I guess I'll have to try to guess what you think your theory implies.  For example, it implies that the whatever the probability of finding yourself at age X, the probability of finding yourself at age X-1 is greater.  Right?

Brent

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups 
"Everything List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email 
to [email protected].
To view this discussion on the web visit 
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/e4159df0-567d-cf85-d775-2ab675914afc%40verizon.net.

Reply via email to