On Thursday, November 7, 2019 at 6:55:47 PM UTC-6, Brent wrote:
>
>
>
> On 11/7/2019 4:35 PM, Philip Thrift wrote:
>
>
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> On Thursday, November 7, 2019 at 6:16:45 PM UTC-6, Brent wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> On 11/7/2019 3:23 PM, Philip Thrift wrote:
>>
>>
>> I've always been a propensitist [
>> https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/probability-interpret/#ProInt ].
>>
>>
>> Fine. But my point is that to connect beliefs, predictions, mathematical
>> theory, observations,...you need to be able to transfer one meaning of
>> probability to another.
>>
>> Brent
>>
>
> I really don't see why.
>
> (When the weatherman says there's a 17% probability of rain tomorrow, I
> don't translate - nor do I think many viewers out there translate -
> anything at all!)
>
>
> Of course you can ignore anything you hear. But if you're going to make
> use of the information you will translate into something related to a
> decision, i.e. what's your expect loss due to getting we tomorrow? Should
> you cancel the department picnic?
>
> Brent
>
Maybe some people do.
I just translate it:
A rain prediction program was run and it output this: 17%.
And that's all I know.
@philipthrift
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