Well consider the example of climate. Nobody can grasp all factors in
climate and their interactions. But we can model all of them in a
global climate simulation. So climatologists+simulations "grasp the
domain" even though humans can't. Now suppose we want to extend these
predictive climate models to include predictions about what humans will
do in response. We don't know how humans will behave except in some
general statistical terms. We don't know whether they will build
nuclear powerplants or not. Whether they will go to war over
immigration or not. An AI might be able to do that, but we certainly
can't. But if it did, would we believe it? It can't explain it to us.
Brent
On 2/4/2022 8:55 AM, Terren Suydam wrote:
I think for programmers to lose their jobs to AIs, AIs will need to
grasp the problem domain, and I'm suggesting that's far too advanced
for today's AI, and I think it's a long way off, because the problem
domain for programmers entails knowing a lot about how humans behave,
what they're good at, and bad at, what they value, and so on, not to
mention the domain-specific knowledge that is necessary to understand
the problem in the first place.
On Thu, Feb 3, 2022 at 8:23 PM Brent Meeker <[email protected]> wrote:
So AI's won't need to "grasp the problem domain" to be effective.
Which may well be true. What we call "grasping the problem"
domain is being able to tell simple stories about it that other
people can grasp and understand, say by reading a book. An AI may
"grasp the problem" in some much more comprehensive way that is
too much for a human to comprehend and the human will say the AI
is just calculating and doesn't understand the problem because it
can't explain it to humans.
That's sort of what we do when we write simulations of complex
things. They are too complex for us to see what will happen and
so we use the computer to tell us what will happen. The computer
can't "explain the result" to us and we can't grasp the whole
domain of the computation, but we can grasp the result.
Brent
On 2/3/2022 4:29 PM, Terren Suydam wrote:
Being able to grasp the problem domain is not the same thing as
being effective in it.
On Thu, Feb 3, 2022 at 6:07 PM Brent Meeker
<[email protected]> wrote:
I think "able to grasp the problem domain we're talking
about" is giving us way to much credit. Every study of stock
traders I've seen says that they do no better than some
simple rules of thumb like index funds.
Brent
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