> > No, in the past rents were too close to the cost of buying a 
house, 
> > now it is  more expensive to buy a house than to rent, and this 
is a 
> > normal market correction. Normal.
> 
> Huh? It is normal, the market is in equillibrium, when rents =
> mortgage payments (after tax, after homeowner costs). The fact that
> rents are at or below 50% of mortgage payments in many areas 
indicates
> that the housing market is seriously out of what and a correction>>


No it doesn't. It has always been the case that it is cheaper to 
rent than to buy. If someone gets a bit better job and perhaps works 
a bit harder, they may say to themselves it is worth it, so that I 
can buy my own place and they will go ahead and do it. A lot of 
people rent because they want quality time and not be workaholics 
and they are happy that way. Others want to work a bit harder or 
focus on increasing income, and then buy a house. This is the way it 
has always been.

 
> > 
> > 2) An extraordinary
> > > jump in the rate of housing construction; >>>
> > 
> > Only in parts of the country, where there has been an increase 
in 
> > jobs. Normal.
> 
> 
> The construction increases have been in areas where housing prices
> have risen sharply. Contributing to a potential  emerging over-
supply
> situation -- that will put downward pressure on prices.>>>


No because in those areas you speak of there has been a constant 
rise in population over the last few decades. The trend will 
continue in those areas, although parts of the midwest are 
depopulating.


>  
> > 
> > <<  3) A sharp decline in
> > > the savings rate, driven by a housing wealth effect.>>>
> > 
> 
> This means people have been drawing heavily on home equity loans
> supported by increased paper profits in the recent rises equity in
> their homes. This means people are spending more, as a % of income,
> thus savings rates are declining -- a bad thing for future interest
> rates and productivity.>>>>


So they are not as rich as the roaring 90's , big deal. 
They are better off buying than renting. Until I bought my house, I 
was pouring at least $100,000 every 10 years down the drain ! And I 
was not in a high cost rental for the area (I was lucky , I had a 
nice place for a bit less than was usual)

Let me repeat: $100,000 minimum (not including for inflation which 
would increase that figure)  EVERY 10 YEARS.


> 
> > This means people have less savings than they had when they were 
> > renting and were pouring $10 to 20,000 a year down the drain in 
> > rent. 
> 
> People either rent property or rent money to buy property. We are 
all
> renters. >>>


I know, ultimately, the Chinese OWN my house. 
I don't care.


> 
> In initial years of a mortgage, only about 15% of mortgage 
payments go
> towards equity -- the rest is interest.
> 
> The primary driver of equity build up for buyers is home 
appreciation
> -- which all the fundamentals in the market point to leveling off 
or
> declining.
>  
> If one can rent the same property for 1500/mo, rather than buy it 
with
> a mortgage of 3000/month, the renter is saving $1500 / month. >>>



No they are pouring $180,000 every 10 years down the drain. 
Burning it. 

OffWorld





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