--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, "shempmcgurk" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> 
wrote:
>
> --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, new.morning <no_reply@> 
> wrote:
> >
> > >
> > > shempmcgurk wrote:
> > > >In light of the fact that only 19 of 100 contacted had seen 
the 
> > > >movie, do you think it was fair of the AP to lead with: "The 
> > > >nation's top climate scientists are giving 'An Inconvenient 
> Truth,' 
> > > >Al Gore's documentary on global warming, five stars for 
> accuracy." ?
> > 
> > I am not sure I yet understand what occurred. 
> > 
> > There are clearly more than 100 climate scientists in the US / 
> world.
> > I have heard the figure 10,000 used. Though perhaps not explicitly
> > stated in the article, its strongly implied that these 100 
> scientists
> > contacted were a sample of the 10,000 (or so) qualified 
scientists.
> > Probably a reasonable sample size. Hopefully the list was drawn 
in 
> a
> > random fashion. At a minumum, I presume no one has pointed to any
> > extreme biases in the sample.
> > 
> > That 19 of the 100 in the sample responded is pretty typical. Most
> > research, marketing and political samples have high non-respondent
> > rates. Its an issue, but not an unsurmountable problem. 
> Particllary if
> > the sample size was targeted at being larger than necessary, to
> > account for non-respondents.
> > 
> > Did all 19 that did respond support Gore's main points? If so, 
> thats
> > phenomenal. To have 100% of a sample (respondents) supporting the 
> same
> > view, indicates a high degree of concensus among the larger 
> population
> > of 10,000 (or so). Very little divergence (low sigman, low 
standard
> > deviation from the population mean.)
> 
> Your questions above sound similar to what the GOP writer's of that 
> majority report wanted to know.

Which majority report was that, Shemp?

> And I'd like to know it, too.

Of course, new.morning's questions are based on a
misunderstanding of how the survey was conducted, so
they aren't valid.  But I'm sure that's exactly the
kinds of questions those reflexively opposed to the
consensus view on global warming would attempt to
raise, in order to confuse the issue as much as
possible.






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