Likely bunk. Though I haven't ground the numbers myself, the strongest forces for violent crime rate drops in the 1990s were demographics (the percent of young males was lower than normal) and rapidly toughening violent offender laws (lock up the other young males).
I'd love to see this paper, but it does not sound worth the $5. _____ From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Joseph E. Olson Sent: Friday, October 30, 2009 7:21 PM To: List Firearms Reg Subject: Fwd: Gasoline lead exposure and crime Is this B. S.? ******************************************************************* Professor Joseph Olson, J.D., LL.M. o- 651-523-2142 Hamline University School of Law (MS-D2037) f- 651-523-2236 St. Paul, MN 55113-1235 c- 612-865-7956 [email protected] http://law.hamline.edu/node/784 >>> Eric J. 10/30/2009 6:36 PM >>> http://www.nber.org/papers/w13097 Environmental Policy as Social Policy? The Impact of Childhood Lead Exposure on Crime Jessica Wolpaw Reyes NBER Working Paper No. 13097 May 2007 ABSTRACT Childhood lead exposure can lead to psychological deficits that are strongly associated with aggressive and criminal behavior. In the late 1970s in the United States, lead was removed from gasoline under the Clean Air Act. Using the sharp state-specific reductions in lead exposure resulting from this removal, this article finds that the reduction in childhood lead exposure in the late 1970s and early 1980s is responsible for significant declines in violent crime in the 1990s, and may cause further declines into the future. The elasticity of violent crime with respect to lead is estimated to be approximately 0.8. Jessica Wolpaw Reyes Department of Economics Amherst College
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