On Mar 25, 2013, at 2:17 PM, GunCite <[email protected]> wrote:
> Speaking of state-level homicide, firearm prevalence, and states as > laboratories... > > Homicide numbers can be sliced and diced to one's heart's discontent by year, > state, race, age, etc., here: > http://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/mortrate10_sy.html and here: > http://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/dataRestriction_inj.html . > > Using the CDC data from above, Miller, et. al > (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953606004898 ) (2007) > published an article stating, "Multivariate analyses found that states with > higher rates of household firearm ownership had significantly higher homicide > victimization rates of men, women and children." > > The above paper didn't divide the groups further by race or ethnicity. > > I recently ran some multiple regressions doing that. I'm still studying the > issue and the following is only *preliminary*. > > After running a regression on white non-Hispanics (using the independent > variables listed in the paper as well as a few others), there was still a > positive correlation between homicides and states with higher firearms > availability. Of course the regression coefficient for firearms availability > was far smaller than it was for the black non-Hispanic group, but it was > still positive (however slight). > > One doesn't have to run a regression analysis to see it (at a simple > bivariate level). If you run the data at either of the two links provided > above, you'll see that states such as Alaska and Arkansas, with high firearms > ownership rates, have higher levels of white homicide than average. > > Currently the available data, such as it is at the state level, favors the > pro-control side allowing the Joyce Foundation to sponsor and crank-out these > studies at will. > > What's missing from the equation, at the state level, are the prior records > of both homicide offenders and victims. As this page shows: > http://www.guncite.com/gun_control_gcgvmurd.html , > most of our homicide problem is probably a result of criminals (or those with > prior criminal behavior) misusing guns. > > I don't think it's controversial to say more guns in the hands of criminals > leads to more homicides. > > Of course this suggests until we have more complete information at the state > level, such analyses are suspect to begin with. > > Parenthetically, the following shouldn't be necessary, but in case there are > some idiots out there who believe analyzing crime stats by race is bigotry, > in and of itself, the racial/ethnic categories serve as a proxy for > socio-economic factors and nothing more. > From: Phil Lee <[email protected]> > To: "Olson, Joseph E." <[email protected]> > Cc: "Firearms Reg, List" <[email protected]> > Sent: Monday, March 25, 2013 12:30 PM > Subject: Re: High, very high, rates of homicide and suicide in Black > communities. > > > If we dare to evade the "bigot embargo" and talk about firearm use by race, > we can note that whites suicide at about 1.8 times the rate of minorities in > Maryland (and likely elsewhere). > > The lack of race based reporting of violence measures over-simplifies the > evaluation of different violence suppression policies and can produce the > wrong conclusions. If you view the states as a laboratory for the US as a > whole, you might wrongly judge a policy good, state A shows lower violence > with that policy, whereas that result is from a favorable demographic mix of > races. A better method of comparison would be to compare race by race (and > age by age). > > The race based violence issues haven't been a secret for a long time, I > talked about it in a posting http://www.mcrkba.org/InternationalCrime.html > ("Comparing International Crime Statistics") where I noted, "No one publishes > crime data using demographically similar populations (accounting for > differences in racial populations, age distributions and migrant populations > – especially considering illegals) to make a comparison between the US and > the UK or Canada." And I was certainly NOT the first to notice race based > violence issues and those related to age and citizenship. > > So, Maryland's suicide rate being lower than the US as a whole isn't like due > to its gun control policies, but more likely due to its large proportion of > minorities and Catholics who typically have low rates of suicide no matter > where they live. > > Both sides use data selectively to make arguments and being aware of these > differences can speed the finding of the data to support an argument, but I > think the side opposing gun control has the better data -- if only > pro-freedom groups would make the investment in good statistical analyses. > > Phil > > > From: "Olson, Joseph E." <[email protected]> > To: Phil Lee <[email protected]> > Cc: "Firearms Reg, List" <[email protected]> > Sent: Monday, March 25, 2013 1:13 PM > Subject: Re: High, very high, rates of homicide and suicide in Black > communities. > > The secret is out now. Last Summer the WSJ had a front page article on > Black-on-Black killings. > > It's cultural. In the 1880's it was hopeless, chemically dependent young > White men in the "wild West." Now it's hopeless, chemically dependent young > Black men in urban areas. Both groups hid the nothing they had behind a > great show of bravado. You "diss" me and I'll kill you. According to > retired UCLA historian Roger D. McGrath the death rate was huge in this class > but narrowly limited to the West's version of the "bad man." Every one else > was safe (safer in 1880 when every other man carried a gun than today when > you have to 'Dial 9-1-1" and wait for the professionals). In Minnesota, at > least the pattern continues in 2013. > > On Mon, Mar 25, 2013 at 10:30 AM, Phil Lee <[email protected]> wrote: > A point to contemplate is the effect of the minority murder rates to effect > rates in the various states. So, southern states have high murder rates > which gun control groups blame on high gun ownership, but is more likely due > to the high proportion of minorities, who have low gun ownership rates. But > we can't talk about this issue lest we be labeled bigots. > > Phil > > Sent from my iPhone > > On Mar 24, 2013, at 7:00 PM, "Olson, Joseph E." <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Yes. You are correct. >> >> But this is politics not academia. Which is why the anti's use whatever >> numbers that support the narrative (learned in J School?). I didn't write >> the original piece and Belgium is a bad choice since it's suicide rate is >> astonishing. >> >> On Sun, Mar 24, 2013 at 5:52 PM, Volokh, Eugene <[email protected]> wrote: >> The CDC, >> http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6001a14.htm, tbl. 2, reports >> (2007 data) that the white non-Hispanic homicide rate was 2.75 (averaging >> the male and the female rates); among black non-Hispanics, it was 24, among >> Hispanics 7.5, among American Indians 7.85, and among Asians 2.4. >> >> But in any event, I don’t think it’s quite right to compare >> the white homicide rate in the U.S. against the total homicide rate in >> Belgium (or any similar country). Belgium presumably has its own minority >> groups, which might well have higher homicide rates for their own social >> reasons. So it seems to me that we should compare the homicide rate among >> the majority racial group in the U.S. against the homicide rate among the >> majority racial (or, as relevant, ethnic) group in the foreign country, not >> among the whole population of the foreign country. >> >> Eugene >> >> From: [email protected] >> [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Olson, Joseph E. >> Sent: Sunday, March 24, 2013 12:37 PM >> To: Firearms Reg, List >> Subject: High, very high, rates of homicide and suicide in Black communities. >> >> I believe this is true. Anyone have the cites to the data? >> >> "The homicide rate among whites in the US is roughly the same as the >> homicide rate in Belgium (1.5-1.7/100,000). Among Blacks, the rare is >> 21/100,000. That's more than double the hispanic rate of 8/100,000. Of those >> three groups, blacks are the least likely to own a gun. Homicide in the US >> is not a gun problem, it is a young black man problem." >> >> Largely (entirely?) caused by social/cultural deficiencies. >> >> -- >> ************************************************************************************************************** >> Professor Joseph Olson, J.D.(Hon. Duke), LL.M.(Tax. Florida) >> o 651-523-2142 >> Hamline University School of Law (MS-D2037) >> f 651-523-2236 >> St. Paul, MN 55113-1235 >> c 612-865-7956 >> [email protected] >> http://law.hamline.edu/constitutional_law/joseph_olson.html >> >> _______________________________________________ >> To post, send message to [email protected] >> To subscribe, unsubscribe, change options, or get password, see >> http://lists.ucla.edu/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/firearmsregprof >> >> Please note that messages sent to this large list cannot be viewed as >> private. Anyone can subscribe to the list and read messages that are >> posted; people can read the Web archives; and list members can (rightly or >> wrongly) forward the messages to others. >> >> >> >> -- >> ************************************************************************************************************** >> Professor Joseph Olson, J.D.(Hon. Duke), LL.M.(Tax. Florida) >> o 651-523-2142 >> Hamline University School of Law (MS-D2037) >> f 651-523-2236 >> St. Paul, MN 55113-1235 >> c 612-865-7956 >> [email protected] >> http://law.hamline.edu/constitutional_law/joseph_olson.html >> _______________________________________________ >> To post, send message to [email protected] >> To subscribe, unsubscribe, change options, or get password, see >> http://lists.ucla.edu/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/firearmsregprof >> >> Please note that messages sent to this large list cannot be viewed as >> private. Anyone can subscribe to the list and read messages that are >> posted; people can read the Web archives; and list members can (rightly or >> wrongly) forward the messages to others. > > > > -- > ************************************************************************************************************** > Professor Joseph Olson, J.D.(Hon. Duke), LL.M.(Tax. Florida) > o 651-523-2142 > Hamline University School of Law (MS-D2037) > f 651-523-2236 > St. Paul, MN 55113-1235 > c 612-865-7956 > [email protected] > http://law.hamline.edu/constitutional_law/joseph_olson.html > > _______________________________________________ > To post, send message to [email protected] > To subscribe, unsubscribe, change options, or get password, see > http://lists.ucla.edu/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/firearmsregprof > > Please note that messages sent to this large list cannot be viewed as > private. Anyone can subscribe to the list and read messages that are posted; > people can read the Web archives; and list members can (rightly or wrongly) > forward the messages to others. > > > _______________________________________________ > To post, send message to [email protected] > To subscribe, unsubscribe, change options, or get password, see > http://lists.ucla.edu/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/firearmsregprof > > Please note that messages sent to this large list cannot be viewed as > private. Anyone can subscribe to the list and read messages that are posted; > people can read the Web archives; and list members can (rightly or wrongly) > forward the messages to others. > > _______________________________________________ > To post, send message to [email protected] > To subscribe, unsubscribe, change options, or get password, see > http://lists.ucla.edu/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/firearmsregprof > > Please note that messages sent to this large list cannot be viewed as > private. Anyone can subscribe to the list and read messages that are posted; > people can read the Web archives; and list members can (rightly or wrongly) > forward the messages to others.
_______________________________________________ To post, send message to [email protected] To subscribe, unsubscribe, change options, or get password, see http://lists.ucla.edu/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/firearmsregprof Please note that messages sent to this large list cannot be viewed as private. Anyone can subscribe to the list and read messages that are posted; people can read the Web archives; and list members can (rightly or wrongly) forward the messages to others.
