There is well done one study regarding domestic violence in New Orleans that found that all differences could be explained by non-racial factors. Although it's a public health study since it doesn't deal with guns the figures are probably not "cooked." It's Spring Break so I won't be able to post it until next week.
On Mon, Mar 25, 2013 at 7:41 PM, Phil Lee <[email protected]> wrote: > > 4. If you have a scientific justification for your claim that "the > racial/ethnic categories serve as a proxy for socio-economic factors and > nothing more", I would like to see a cite for it. It would be a useful > shield against a bigotry claim. While this claim is an article of faith > among some, I've never seen a study on the subject. > > Phil > > > ------------------------------ > *From:* GunCite <[email protected]> > *To:* Phil Lee <[email protected]>; "Olson, Joseph E." < > [email protected]> > *Cc:* "Firearms Reg, List" <[email protected]> > *Sent:* Monday, March 25, 2013 5:17 PM > > *Subject:* Re: High, very high, rates of homicide and suicide in Black > communities. > > Speaking of state-level homicide, firearm prevalence, and states as > laboratories... > > Homicide numbers can be sliced and diced to one's heart's discontent by > year, state, race, age, etc., here: > http://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/mortrate10_sy.html and here: > http://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/dataRestriction_inj.html . > > Using the CDC data from above, Miller, et. al ( > http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953606004898 ) (2007) > published an article stating, "Multivariate analyses found that states with > higher rates of household firearm ownership had significantly higher > homicide victimization rates of men, women and children." > > The above paper didn't divide the groups further by race or ethnicity. > > I recently ran some multiple regressions doing that. I'm still studying > the issue and the following is only *preliminary*. > > After running a regression on white non-Hispanics (using the independent > variables listed in the paper as well as a few others), there was still a > positive correlation between homicides and states with higher firearms > availability. Of course the regression coefficient for firearms > availability was far smaller than it was for the black non-Hispanic group, > but it was still positive (however slight). > > One doesn't have to run a regression analysis to see it (at a simple > bivariate level). If you run the data at either of the two links provided > above, you'll see that states such as Alaska and Arkansas, with high > firearms ownership rates, have higher levels of white homicide than average. > > Currently the available data, such as it is at the state level, favors the > pro-control side allowing the Joyce Foundation to sponsor and crank-out > these studies at will. > > What's missing from the equation, at the state level, are the prior > records of both homicide offenders and victims. As this page shows: > http://www.guncite.com/gun_control_gcgvmurd.html , > most of our homicide problem is probably a result of criminals (or those > with prior criminal behavior) misusing guns. > > I don't think it's controversial to say more guns in the hands of > criminals leads to more homicides. > > Of course this suggests until we have more complete information at the > state level, such analyses are suspect to begin with. > > Parenthetically, the following shouldn't be necessary, but in case there > are some idiots out there who believe analyzing crime stats by race is > bigotry, in and of itself, the racial/ethnic categories serve as a proxy > for socio-economic factors and nothing more. > *From:* Phil Lee <[email protected]> > *To:* "Olson, Joseph E." <[email protected]> > *Cc:* "Firearms Reg, List" <[email protected]> > *Sent:* Monday, March 25, 2013 12:30 PM > *Subject:* Re: High, very high, rates of homicide and suicide in Black > communities. > > > If we dare to evade the "bigot embargo" and talk about firearm use by > race, we can note that whites suicide at about 1.8 times the rate of > minorities in Maryland (and likely elsewhere). > > The lack of race based reporting of violence measures over-simplifies the > evaluation of different violence suppression policies and can produce the > wrong conclusions. If you view the states as a laboratory for the US as a > whole, you might wrongly judge a policy good, state A shows lower violence > with that policy, whereas that result is from a favorable demographic mix > of races. A better method of comparison would be to compare race by race > (and age by age). > > The race based violence issues haven't been a secret for a long time, I > talked about it in a posting > http://www.mcrkba.org/InternationalCrime.html("Comparing International Crime > Statistics") where I noted, "No one > publishes crime data using demographically similar populations (accounting > for differences in racial populations, age distributions and migrant > populations – especially considering illegals) to make a comparison between > the US and the UK or Canada." And I was certainly NOT the first to notice > race based violence issues and those related to age and citizenship. > > So, Maryland's suicide rate being lower than the US as a whole isn't like > due to its gun control policies, but more likely due to its large > proportion of minorities and Catholics who typically have low rates of > suicide no matter where they live. > > Both sides use data selectively to make arguments and being aware of these > differences can speed the finding of the data to support an argument, but I > think the side opposing gun control has the better data -- if only > pro-freedom groups would make the investment in good statistical analyses. > > Phil > > > *From:* "Olson, Joseph E." <[email protected]> > *To:* Phil Lee <[email protected]> > *Cc:* "Firearms Reg, List" <[email protected]> > *Sent:* Monday, March 25, 2013 1:13 PM > *Subject:* Re: High, very high, rates of homicide and suicide in Black > communities. > > The secret is out now. Last Summer the WSJ had a front page article on > Black-on-Black killings. > > It's cultural. In the 1880's it was hopeless, chemically dependent young > White men in the "wild West." Now it's hopeless, chemically dependent > young Black men in urban areas. Both groups hid the *nothing* they had > behind a great show of bravado. You "diss" me and I'll kill you. > According to retired UCLA historian Roger D. McGrath the death rate was > huge in this class but narrowly limited to the West's version of the "bad > man." Every one else was safe (*safer* in 1880 when every other man > carried a gun than today when you have to 'Dial 9-1-1" and wait for the > professionals). In Minnesota, at least the pattern continues in 2013. > > On Mon, Mar 25, 2013 at 10:30 AM, Phil Lee <[email protected]>wrote: > > A point to contemplate is the effect of the minority murder rates to > effect rates in the various states. So, southern states have high murder > rates which gun control groups blame on high gun ownership, but is more > likely due to the high proportion of minorities, who have low gun ownership > rates. But we can't talk about this issue lest we be labeled bigots. > > Phil > > Sent from my iPhone > > On Mar 24, 2013, at 7:00 PM, "Olson, Joseph E." <[email protected]> > wrote: > > Yes. You are correct. > > But this is politics not academia. Which is why the anti's use whatever > numbers that support the narrative (learned in J School?). I didn't write > the original piece and Belgium is a bad choice since it's suicide rate is > astonishing. > > On Sun, Mar 24, 2013 at 5:52 PM, Volokh, Eugene <[email protected]>wrote: > > The CDC, > http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6001a14.htm, tbl. 2, reports > (2007 data) that the white non-Hispanic homicide rate was 2.75 (averaging > the male and the female rates); among black non-Hispanics, it was 24, among > Hispanics 7.5, among American Indians 7.85, and among Asians 2.4.**** > ** ** > * But in any event, I don’t think it’s quite right to > compare the white homicide rate in the U.S. against the total homicide rate > in Belgium (or any similar country). Belgium presumably has its own > minority groups, which might well have higher homicide rates for their own > social reasons. So it seems to me that we should compare the homicide rate > among the majority racial group in the U.S. against the homicide rate among > the majority racial (or, as relevant, ethnic) group in the foreign country, > not among the whole population of the foreign country.***** > ** ** > Eugene**** > ** ** > *From:* [email protected] [mailto: > [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Olson, Joseph E. > *Sent:* Sunday, March 24, 2013 12:37 PM > *To:* Firearms Reg, List > *Subject:* High, very high, rates of homicide and suicide in Black > communities.**** > ** ** > I believe this is true. Anyone have the cites to the data?**** > ** ** > "The homicide rate among whites in the US is roughly the same as the > homicide rate in Belgium (1.5-1.7/100,000). Among Blacks, the rare is > 21/100,000. That's more than double the hispanic rate of 8/100,000. Of > those three groups, blacks are the least likely to own a gun. Homicide in > the US is not a gun problem, it is a young black man problem."**** > ** ** > Largely (entirely?) caused by social/cultural deficiencies. > **** > ** ** > -- **** > > ************************************************************************************************************** > Professor Joseph Olson, J.D.(*Hon*. Duke), LL.M.(*Tax*. Florida) > o 651-523-2142 > Hamline University School of Law (MS-D2037) > f 651-523-2236 > St. Paul, MN 55113-1235 > c 612-865-7956**** > [email protected] > http://law.hamline.edu/constitutional_law/joseph_olson.html**** > > _______________________________________________ > To post, send message to [email protected] > To subscribe, unsubscribe, change options, or get password, see > http://lists.ucla.edu/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/firearmsregprof > > Please note that messages sent to this large list cannot be viewed as > private. Anyone can subscribe to the list and read messages that are > posted; people can read the Web archives; and list members can (rightly or > wrongly) forward the messages to others. > > > > > -- > > ************************************************************************************************************** > Professor Joseph Olson, J.D.(*Hon*. Duke), LL.M.(*Tax*. Florida) > o 651-523-2142 > Hamline University School of Law (MS-D2037) > f 651-523-2236 > St. Paul, MN 55113-1235 > c 612-865-7956 > [email protected] > http://law.hamline.edu/constitutional_law/joseph_olson.html > > _______________________________________________ > To post, send message to [email protected] > To subscribe, unsubscribe, change options, or get password, see > http://lists.ucla.edu/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/firearmsregprof > > Please note that messages sent to this large list cannot be viewed as > private. Anyone can subscribe to the list and read messages that are > posted; people can read the Web archives; and list members can (rightly or > wrongly) forward the messages to others. > > > > > -- > > ************************************************************************************************************** > Professor Joseph Olson, J.D.(*Hon*. Duke), LL.M.(*Tax*. Florida) > o 651-523-2142 > Hamline University School of Law (MS-D2037) > f 651-523-2236 > St. Paul, MN 55113-1235 > c 612-865-7956 > [email protected] > http://law.hamline.edu/constitutional_law/joseph_olson.html > > _______________________________________________ > To post, send message to [email protected] > To subscribe, unsubscribe, change options, or get password, see > http://lists.ucla.edu/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/firearmsregprof > > Please note that messages sent to this large list cannot be viewed as > private. Anyone can subscribe to the list and read messages that are > posted; people can read the Web archives; and list members can (rightly or > wrongly) forward the messages to others. > > > _______________________________________________ > To post, send message to [email protected] > To subscribe, unsubscribe, change options, or get password, see > http://lists.ucla.edu/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/firearmsregprof > > Please note that messages sent to this large list cannot be viewed as > private. Anyone can subscribe to the list and read messages that are > posted; people can read the Web archives; and list members can (rightly or > wrongly) forward the messages to others. > > > > -- ************************************************************************************************************** Professor Joseph Olson, J.D.(*Hon*. Duke), LL.M.(*Tax*. Florida) o 651-523-2142 Hamline University School of Law (MS-D2037) f 651-523-2236 St. Paul, MN 55113-1235 c 612-865-7956 [email protected] http://law.hamline.edu/constitutional_law/joseph_olson.html
_______________________________________________ To post, send message to [email protected] To subscribe, unsubscribe, change options, or get password, see http://lists.ucla.edu/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/firearmsregprof Please note that messages sent to this large list cannot be viewed as private. Anyone can subscribe to the list and read messages that are posted; people can read the Web archives; and list members can (rightly or wrongly) forward the messages to others.
