I'd like to distinguish between using an epidemic *model* and considering that what's being modeled is actually a disease epidemic. Note this language, "predicted by modeling gun violence as an epidemic that is transmitted between individuals through social interactions." which says the model is used - it does not say gun violence is caused by a pathogen. So the publication uses "epidemic models based on person-to-person transmission through a social network." They are consistent in pointing out that this is a model: "Conclusions and Relevance Gunshot violence follows an epidemic-like process of social contagion that is transmitted through networks of people by social interactions. Violence prevention efforts that account for social contagion, in addition to demographics, have the potential to prevent more shootings than efforts that focus on only demographics."
They emphasize that previous studies have emphasized the locations where people live, and they are changing the emphasis to the personal contacts and being together in activities, e.g. being arrested together for the same offense. They feel that this "co-offending" is an important aspect of social contagion and allows better predictions than geographical area, they would like to see additional information on social ties included. After going through this article, I see no mention or advocacy of gun control. The entire emphasis is on how social ties plus demographics/social-ties may predict who will be involved in shootings, either as the shooter or the victim. The predictions can then be used to, "advance a preventive approach to mitigating the effects of gun violence that looks not simply to respond to shootings that have already happened but also to bolster networks that might inoculate from the potential for future shootings." So might gun control advocates advance their ideas on *gun* control and claim that they are supported by this publication? Of course this might happen - but that would not be truthful. The publication does *not* say that guns are a disease or disease agent. --henry schaffer On Wed, Jan 4, 2017 at 12:16 PM, Will Brink <[email protected]> wrote: > Is the very term "gun violence" not an artificial construct to have people > focus on the tool used vs tool user? As you all know, cars, knives, and > screw drivers all used regularly to harm/kill people, but are not given > special or magical powers or categories to create crime on their own. In > the UK they like to focus on "knife crime" for similar (illogical) > reasons. > > > Kessler, Raymond wrote: > > Agreed. Calling gun violence a public health problem and calling gun > > control, "gun safety" is a propaganda technique to mask the fact that > > additional gun control increase the power of the state and will be > > enforced by criminal sanctions. Do we need more criminal cases in our > > courts, more people in our prisons, more unlawful search and seizures? > > How many of the defendants will be harmless people? How much will they > > infringe on the 2nd Amendment and the fundamental right of self-defense? > > See the book "Law Abiding Criminals" and my article, "Enforcement > > Problems of Gun Control, A Victimless Crime Analysis." > > Ray Kessler > > ________________________________________ > > From: [email protected] > > [[email protected]] on behalf of Dean Cascio > > [[email protected]] > > Sent: Wednesday, January 04, 2017 2:28 AM > > To: [email protected]; 'firearmsregprof' > > Subject: RE: Another study considers gun violence as a public health > issue > > > > > > So true. > > Thank you. > > > > > > > > > > > > Sent from Yahoo Mail on > > Android<https://overview.mail.yahoo.com/mobile/?.src=Android> > > > > > > On Tue, Jan 3, 2017 at 6:53 PM, [email protected] > > <[email protected]> wrote: > > Just when I thought the politicization of science could not get stranger > … > > it does. > > > > Summarizing the abstract, they say that because the Feds do not fund a > > lot of gun violence research (for well-known historical reasons) this is > > a problem. I find this to be an odd assumption. Frankly, gun violence and > > gun control policy is one of the most insanely over studied topics in > > criminology. > > > > Start at the Bureau of Justice Statistics and search on "firearm > > violence". Thousands of studies, reports and raw data tables to the > > taking. > > > > Next, do a Google Scholar search for the same and similar terms, adding > > the word "criminology" (this helps you avoid the intellectual malpractice > > committed by doctors posing as criminologists). The number of peer review > > papers is nearly unmeasurable. > > > > Now add up all the books published by criminologists and economists on > > the topic. Some of these tomes cover every angle of the field. > > > > Federal research dollars is not a relevant proxy for the depth or quality > > of available research. The paper’s methodology appears to be flawed from > > the start. > > > > Guy Smith > > [email protected] www.linkedin.com/in/gunfacts/ > > > > > > > > From: [email protected] > > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Henry > > Schaffer > > Sent: Tuesday, January 3, 2017 4:45 PM > > To: firearmsregprof <[email protected]> > > Subject: Another study considers gun violence as a public health issue > > > > > > This on the air this evening on NPR's All Things Considered > > http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/01/03/508037642/ > study-says-gun > > -violence-should-be-treated-as-a-public-health-crisis > > > > > > It has a link which is supposed to go to the study in JAMA (Journal of > > the American Medical Assoc) but mistakenly links to a 30 year old study. > > > > NPR says, "David Stark, one of the study's leaders ..." - so I searched > > JAMA for his name, and found this just published article: > > ------------------ > > JAMAResearch LetterJanuary 3, 2017 > > Funding and Publication of Research on Gun Violence and Other Leading > > Causes of DeathDavid E. Stark, MD, MS; Nigam H. Shah, MBBS, PhD > > JAMA. 2017; 317(1):84-85. doi: 10.1001/jama.2016.16215 > > > > > > This study uses Centers for Disease Control and Prevention mortality and > > federal agency research funding data to compare funding for and > > publication of gun violence research with that for 30 other leading > > causes of death in the United States. > > > > Abstract: > > The United States has the highest rate of gun-related deaths among > > industrialized countries, with more than 30 000 fatalities annually.1 To > > date, research on gun violence has been limited. A 1996 congressional > > appropriations bill stipulated that “none of the funds made available for > > injury prevention and control at the Centers for Disease Control and > > Prevention [CDC] may be used to advocate or promote gun control.”2 > > Similar restrictions were subsequently extended to other agencies > > (including the National Institutes of Health), and although the > > legislation does not ban gun-related research outright, it has been > > described as casting a pall over the research community.2,3 This study > > sought to determine whether funding and publication of gun violence > > research are disproportionately low relative to the mortality rate from > > this cause. --------------- > > > > > > which doesn't quite fit the story of what I heard on the air, (which had > > a lot about violence in social networks in Chicago- and there is no link > > the the recording of the on-air item. Maybe there will be tomorrow?) but > > it does have that Figure 1 shown on the web. > > > > --henry schaffer > > _______________________________________________ > > To post, send message to [email protected] > > To subscribe, unsubscribe, change options, or get password, see > > http://lists.ucla.edu/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/firearmsregprof > > > > > > Please note that messages sent to this large list cannot be viewed as > > private. Anyone can subscribe to the list and read messages that are > > posted; people can read the Web archives; and list members can (rightly > > or wrongly) forward the messages to others. > > > -- > Sincerely, > > Author and industry consultant, Will Brink @ www.BrinkZone.com > > Free articles, free ebook, and other stuff of interest to fitness > enthusiasts, see my site at: > > http://www.brinkzone.com/ > > Remember, "Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from > mediocre > minds." -- Einstein > > _______________________________________________ > To post, send message to [email protected] > To subscribe, unsubscribe, change options, or get password, see > http://lists.ucla.edu/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/firearmsregprof > > Please note that messages sent to this large list cannot be viewed as > private. Anyone can subscribe to the list and read messages that are > posted; people can read the Web archives; and list members can (rightly or > wrongly) forward the messages to others. >
_______________________________________________ To post, send message to [email protected] To subscribe, unsubscribe, change options, or get password, see http://lists.ucla.edu/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/firearmsregprof Please note that messages sent to this large list cannot be viewed as private. Anyone can subscribe to the list and read messages that are posted; people can read the Web archives; and list members can (rightly or wrongly) forward the messages to others.
