> On Jan 4, 2017, at 6:33 PM, Henry Schaffer <[email protected]> wrote:
> 
> I'd like to distinguish between using an epidemic *model* and considering 
> that what's being modeled is actually a disease epidemic. 

> After going through this article, I see no mention or advocacy of gun 
> control. The entire emphasis is on how social ties plus 
> demographics/social-ties may predict who will be involved in shootings, 
> either as the shooter or the victim.

> So might gun control advocates advance their ideas on *gun* control and claim 
> that they are supported by this publication? Of course this might happen - 
> but that would not be truthful. The publication does *not* say that guns are 
> a disease or disease agent.

Truthful or untruthful, fully expect it to happen.  We've seen precisely this 
dodge used previously, by the very author who performed and published one such 
study.

The paper in question was published in a prestigious medical journal, and 
contained the following peer-reviewed caveats against assuming causality:

   ...it is possible that reverse causation accounted for some
   of the association we observed between gun ownership and homicide --
   i.e., in a limited number of cases, people may have acquired a gun
   in response to a specific threat...  Finally, we cannot exclude
   the possibility that the association we observed is due to a third,
   unidentified factor.

Once the paper had been published and the peer reviewers were out of the loop, 
the author went on CNN Headline News (October
6, 1993), and (using the name of the publishing journal to lend authority to 
his "finding") made a flat statement of causality:

  ...guns in fact increase the risk of homicide in the home almost
   three times over comparable homes without guns.

Unfortunately, there's what the study says, and then there's what the news says 
the study says.  And we know the news is never kind to gun rights.
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