Peter Boucher <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes: > Using data from > http://149.101.22.40/dataonline/Search/Crime/State/statebystaterun.cfm?s > tateid=9 > (you may need to cut-and-paste both lines of the above URL to get it to > work), I calculated the following, the entries of which show the average > homicide rate over the surrounding five years (e.g., the entry for 1971 > shows the average homicide rate for the period 1969-1973).
> I'm no statistician, so this method of evening out the bumps may be > wrong-headed, It is, I'm afraid, inappropriate. Consider this example: year rate average -3 10 10 -2 10 9 -1 10 8 0 5 7 1 5 6 2 5 5 The rate drops from 10 to 5 in year 0, but your moving average makes it look like the decrease started two years earlier. > but assuming they're not hopelessly wrong, these data show > that Tim's charge of cherry-picking is baseless. Lott's assertion that > the rate started to trend down well before the law appears to be > correct. Lott did not use moving averages in his analysis, so your numbers are not relevant to what he did. -- Tim
