Tim reported:

> http://timlambert.org/2003/08#0818
> A study by Kovandzic and Marvell has been published in July issue of
> Criminology and Public Policy. (A draft of their paper is here.) From
> the journal's news release about their findings:
>
>     In the recently published study "Right-to-Carry Concealed
>     Handguns: Crime Control through Gun Decontrol?," Kovandzic and
>     Marvell examine what, if any, impact Florida's right-to-carry law
>     has had on its rate of violent crime.

<snip>

>     First, they point out that
>     few people have taken advantage of the concealed carry law?
>     "despite millions of Floridians being eligible for permits... 12
>     years after the [RTC] law was in effect, there were only 248,O49
>     valid concealed weapons permits in Florida, representing 2.1% of
>     the Florida adult population."

Ever wonder why so few people play Russian Roulette?  Cost/benefit.  Though
the chance of ending your own life is only 1-in-6, the cost is so high few
people are willing to risk it.  Criminals, as thick as they may be, operate
on the same informal analysis.  Sure, only 2.1% of the population carries .
. . but when I mug someone at the ATM, will they be in that 2.1%?  Not worth
the gamble.

I worry about researchers who miss the obvious.  Calls their work into
doubt.

>     They further speculate that the
>     benefits of allowing potential victims to carry concealed handguns
>     might be cancelled out by an increased number of potential
>     criminals securing permits to carry concealed handguns of their
>     own.

Since when have criminals been concerned with obeying carry laws, and why
would their behavior about concealed carry change with the passage of this
law?  Absurd speculation on the part of Kovandzic and Marvell.

--------------------
Guy Smith
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