Tim Lambert <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Guy Smith <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes: > > Ever wonder why so few people play Russian Roulette? Cost/benefit. Though > > the chance of ending your own life is only 1-in-6, the cost is so high few > > people are willing to risk it. Criminals, as thick as they may be, operate > > on the same informal analysis. Sure, only 2.1% of the population carries . > > . . but when I mug someone at the ATM, will they be in that 2.1%? Not worth > > the gamble. > > If criminals were so concerned about the tiny chance of encountering a > gun carrier then they would already have been deterred by the far > larger chance of being arrested and convicted for their crime.
1. Is the risk FAR higher of being arrested and convicted? For murder, clearance rates are quite high: 62.4%. But for robbery, it's only 24.9%. Of course, these are clearances of crimes reported, as measured by arrest only. Murder is well-reported (probably close to 100%), but robbery and rape are quite a bit less reported. 2. Actual risk of being arrested for robbery is probably closer to 18-20%, and risk of being convicted is much lower. In some jurisdictions, a conviction is going to be about half or less of the arrests, so suddenly, the risk of arrest AND conviction for robbery is not dramatically higher than the risk of confronting an armed victim. 2. There is a fundamental difference here, even ignoring the risk, and that's the consequences. If an armed victim shoots a criminal, that's potentially death or permanent disability. Only for murder is there even the remotest possibility that arrest by the police will lead to death, and no chance of spending the rest of his life in a wheelchair. (Some years ago, the Los Angeles Times carried an article about the large number of gang members in wheelchairs for the rest of their lives after being shot in gang encounters--and some of these guys were still engaged in violent attacks on other gangs at rehab centers. And we're supposed to feel sorry for these extraordinarily slow leaners?) Clayton E. Cramer [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.claytoncramer.com Being a citizen of the Republic is not a spectator sport.
