On Sat, Jan 17, 2009 at 5:43 PM, Jon S. Berndt wrote:
> Many of you recall the hijacked airliner than ran out of fuel ten or
> fifteen years ago. The resulting ditching didn't turn out so well, with most
> people drowning. That was on the ocean near the shore. In the recent case,
> it appears that everything worked right. The crew - trained for such an
> emergency - reportedly performed admirably. The passengers did well.
> Emergency services and boat captains played a vital role.
>
> I can imagine that a ditching in the open sea and on a river are in two
> remarkably different environments, with the river being much more conducive
> to a ditching. If one engine catches a wave before the other, that could be
> enough to finish everyone off. I'd imagine that the aircraft *must* land
> straight forward without rolling, and maintain structural integrity and
> buoyancy long enough to allow everyone to get out.
>
> On my recent trip from Houston to Honolulu (with my entire family,
> including four kids aged 6 to 12), this was one of my concerns, flying in a
> two engine aircraft. No matter how skillful the pilot is, [s]he cannot
> control the ocean state. At the time we flew, there were two tropical storms
> south of us.
>
> I'd imagine that this recent case will be a valuable data point for study
> to make future ditchings more survivable.
I was on a 224' NOAA research ship last spring about 1000 nm north of
Hawaii. We were up past San Francisco latitudes and water and air temps
were in the low 50's. We were way out of any helicopter range, hardly a
ship any where near that area ... if we had to ditch the ship out there, it
could have been really ugly ... and that's without the need to survive a
water landing in 10-20' swells. We had days with 35 kt winds and you just
don't want to be above deck very long (not to mention in the water) in those
conditions.
I agree that with the A320 incident in New York, a tremendous amount of
skill, talent, and preparation was involved. Without all of that coming
together at the same time, there wouldn't have even been a chance. Also
setting down in a long stretch of flat water gives you a much better chance
than trying to set down in ocean swells.
But given the circumstances, and given that all aboard survived, I have a
hard time not calling it a miracle myself.
Curt.
--
Curtis Olson: http://baron.flightgear.org/~curt/
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