Thus spake Robert Holmes circa 10/03/2008 12:15 PM: > Look at this way then - if he'd had access to a zillion parameter > mega-simulation, do you think we'd all be safe and cozy and *wouldn't* be in > the middle of a financial crisis?
[You guys need to trim the cruft off the bottom of your e-mails.] I think we would be in a better position. If nothing else, the existence and use of zillion parameter mega-simulations _force_ us to concede that models are often wrong and useless. Granted, there are still morons who think that there _can_ be accurate or True models. But if more people in powerful positions knew, tacitly, how bad most models are, they would be much more suspicious of their and others' policy decisions (which are all based on models of one sort or another). At least these guys had the sense to reify their models in some way, rather than merely shooting from the hip and listening to their gut. You gotta give them that much credit. We may not avert crises; but, we might soften them considerably. NPC: a, b, and d are satisfied. (c) might be a stretch. [grin] -- glen e. p. ropella, 971-219-3846, http://tempusdictum.com ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
