Robert, I think the odds are greater (in the sense that *any* number is greater than zero) for a high-res. simulation to produce higher quality results than what his toy model provided.
You are obviously of the the camp that "there is no such thing as a large, complex simulation which can produce useful results". I occupy the other camp. Further, I contend that if our esteemed (using the next term loosely now) "leaders" had spent one tiny little fraction of the $700B pork-rich bill that they just passed to develop a quality, highly-resolved simulation of the US economic system, say, 6 years ago, and - (a huge assumption coming up here) the project was professionally, as compared to politically managed, and - the results of modeling risky asset management by large financial institutions were heeded by our political (loose usage again) leaders, then we would not be in our current economic situation. The realities of our government's top-level decision-making process being what they are, however, mean that even with a simulation that produced dead-nuts-on results, we'd probably still be in exactly the same situation as we are today. --Doug On Fri, Oct 3, 2008 at 1:15 PM, Robert Holmes <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>wrote: > Look at this way then - if he'd had access to a zillion parameter > mega-simulation, do you think we'd all be safe and cozy and *wouldn't* be > in the middle of a financial crisis? > > R > > On Fri, Oct 3, 2008 at 12:49 PM, Douglas Roberts <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>wrote: > >> You're right of course. I mean, look at the wonderful guidance his model >> has provided so far. Positively robust. It certainly helped predict our >> current "credit crunch". >> >> Didn't it? >> >> Sorry, I believe Bernanke is every bit as inept as many of the rest of our >> top officials, and I don't believe toy models will ever suffice at >> predicting the behavior of large, complex systems such as the US economy. >> >> Sadly, it didn't surprise me to discover that this is exactly what >> Bernanke was trying to do. >> >> --Doug >> >> >> On Fri, Oct 3, 2008 at 12:36 PM, Robert Holmes <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>wrote: >> >>> Kinda depends on what he's trying to model. If you mean "predict $ vs >>> Euro, price of gas, price of Wachovia stock one year from now" you are >>> right. But if he's modeling hugely aggregated stuff (inflation, GDP, >>> unemployment, national debt) and the impact his policies would have then >>> it's quite possible he'll get just as robust results from a "simplistic" >>> model as he would from some zillion parameter simulation. >>> Robert >>> >>> On Fri, Oct 3, 2008 at 8:22 PM, Douglas Roberts <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>wrote: >>> >>>> Answer to #2: No, but I'm pretty damn sure 20 differential equations >>>> don't capture the market dynamics necessary to accurately model the >>>> US/World >>>> economy. >>>> >>>> >>>> On Fri, Oct 3, 2008 at 12:18 PM, Robert Holmes <[EMAIL PROTECTED] >>>> > wrote: >>>> >>>>> A couple of points: >>>>> >>>>> 1. At least he's not using Excel >>>>> 2. Are you really REALLY sure that the ultra-micro sims in which >>>>> you specialise lead to better policy decisions than the supposedly >>>>> simplistic alternatives? (Bear in mind that you posted a couple of >>>>> weeks ago >>>>> saying you could get your simulations to produce pretty much whatever >>>>> result >>>>> your stakeholders wanted). >>>>> >>>>> Robert >>>>> >>>>> On Fri, Oct 3, 2008 at 8:03 PM, Douglas Roberts < >>>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/10/03/us_economy_model/ >>>>>> >>>>>> *"...it implements the 20 equations to describe the economy during a >>>>>> credit crunch in a programming language called Matlab from MathWorks* >>>>>> ." >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> I'm sorry, but all I can say is "Fuck me to tears." The US's head >>>>>> financier is an idiot. >>>>>> >>>>>> -- >>>>>> Doug Roberts, RTI International >>>>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] >>>>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] >>>>>> 505-455-7333 - Office >>>>>> 505-670-8195 - Cell >>>>>> >>>>>> ============================================================ >>>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >>>>>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> ============================================================ >>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >>>>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> ============================================================ >>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >>>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >>>> >>> >>> >>> ============================================================ >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >>> >> >> >> >> >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >> > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > -- Doug Roberts, RTI International [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] 505-455-7333 - Office 505-670-8195 - Cell
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