What I think I have read in this thread, so far: 1. There are tons of potential homes for 'intelligent life' 2. These potential homes have come to be only 'recently' - perhaps too recently for them to have lived up to their potential. 3. Our only example of success is, at best (and only if some of the semaphore signals using mirrors and sunlight at places like Chaco managed to hit open sky and leave the planet) a couple of thousand years old - a mere blink even in the foreshortened window of type two stars. 4. The probability of two or more successes overlapping in time while simultaneously being within communication / observation (SETI or otherwise) distance starts to become extremely small. 5. Successes that meet the criteria of #4 might not recognize each other because they are mutually alien.
It seems to me that #5 is the real key. When it comes to recognizing "intelligence" the Anthropomorphic Principle is not only strong - it approaches absolute. davew On Sun, Apr 1, 2012, at 11:41 PM, Tom Carter wrote: > Owen - > > Can't remember if I've recommended this here in the past . . . but > apropos various of these topics is "The Anthropic Cosmological > Principle" by Barrow and Tipler. It's getting a bit old now (1988), > but I think still worth the read . . . they cover tons of fascinating > stuff . . . (and are likely to annoy more than a few :-) > > > http://www.amazon.com/Anthropic-Cosmological-Principle-Oxford-Paperbacks/dp/0192821474 > > Thanks . . . > > tom > > On Apr 1, 2012, at 8:25 PM, Owen Densmore wrote: > > > Doug: I'm not sure if we're on the same page. Let me be as simple as > > possible. > > > > Because I had earlier belonged to the Sagan school of Billions being > > Important, I had assumed the possibility of life was pretty much spread > > over the era of galaxy formation. > > > > But after being a bit more analytic, it occurred to me that one could > > reduce one of the billions .. the percent of the life of the universe w/in > > life formation might occur .. by a considerable amount. > > > > What I found interesting was that (considering star generations of import) > > that all life may be starting at about the same time .. w/in a billion or > > two years of each other. > > > > Does that make sense? You keep blinding me with science and billions, > > about which I am already aware. I'm interested in a different phenomenon > > .. adding stellar evolution (and why would you presume I don't understand > > evolution, of all things) and using that to be a bit more intelligent about > > boundary conditions. > > > > I think the answer is: You don't care about trimming the era of life > > formation from 12BY say, to 2-4BY. Right? > > > > -- Owen > > > > On Sun, Apr 1, 2012 at 7:16 PM, Douglas Roberts <[email protected]> > > wrote: > > As to being the first, we've only been civilized, if you can call it that, > > for a mere 5,000 years - the working definition for that descriptive being > > the length of recorded history. Cripes, we've only existed as a unique > > species for ~20,000 year. At the rate we're going, I'd place even money on > > us no lasting another 20,000. > > > > So, given this, and the fact that there has been evolved multicellular, > > animate life on the planet for the last ~500 million years, who can state > > with authority that we are the first "intelligent" specie to evolve? > > > > Unless you don't believe in evolution... Oh wait, I guess we decided not > > to go there. Back to our main program. > > > > Anyhow, 500 million years on a geological time scale is sufficient for > > subduction to have completely obliterated sizable portions of earthly real > > estate. Evidence of some unfortunate prior specie's ephemeral 20,000 year > > claim to having become civilized could well never be found by today's > > archaeologists. > > > > This is not a new concept, several science fiction writers have written > > stories that transpire over geological time periods. Frederich Pohl, Larry > > Niven, and more recently, Michael Seimsen who wrote The Dig which addresses > > this very proposition. In his story, a hominid species rose to > > approximately iron-age levels of technology ~120 million years ago, before > > having been being wiped out in the Cretaceous era mass extinction. These > > unfortunate individuals had a rough go of it, what with all the dinosaur > > predators roaming around at the time (Sarah Palin would have *loved* this > > story, presuming she could have gotten past the 6,000 year issue). As a > > result of the relative hard times they were living in, these hominids did > > not expand to the point of becoming a global blight, unlike the current > > inhabitants. The did have art, though. > > > > On a much broader scale, we have what: 200 billion galaxies that we can > > see, each with tens to hundreds of billions of potentially habitable > > planets? I have a sneaky suspicion we are not the first to have > > experienced "the quickening", universally speaking. > > > > --Doug > > > > On Sun, Apr 1, 2012 at 12:42 PM, Owen Densmore <[email protected]> wrote: > > Gentle readers, as much as I like /.-like digressions, interesting humor > > (but not religious rants), has anyone anything to add to the idea that life > > origins may be bound to the era after Population II star formation? > > > > If so, we may be among the first of these very young life forms, +/- a > > billion years or so. > > > > -- Owen > > > > ============================================================ > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > > > > > > > -- > > Doug Roberts > > [email protected] > > [email protected] > > http://parrot-farm.net/Second-Cousins > > > > 505-455-7333 - Office > > 505-670-8195 - Cell > > > > > > ============================================================ > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > > > ============================================================ > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
