Have computers made inferences?  I know the obvious answer but Nick uses
language in a special way.

Frank

Frank Wimberly
Phone (505) 670-9918

On Sep 9, 2016 1:02 PM, "Nick Thompson" <[email protected]> wrote:

> M-
>
>
>
> No statistic has ever made an inference.
>
>
>
> N
>
>
>
> Nicholas S. Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
>
> Clark University
>
> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam [mailto:[email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Marcus
> Daniels
> *Sent:* Friday, September 09, 2016 2:42 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> [email protected]>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics
>
>
>
> Fine, “statistical inference” then.
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam [mailto:[email protected]
> <[email protected]>] *On Behalf Of *Nick Thompson
> *Sent:* Friday, September 09, 2016 12:38 PM
> *To:* 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <
> [email protected]>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics
>
>
>
> And data “mining” is a metaphor.
>
>
>
> Now people claim to use metaphors “metaphorically”, by which they mean
> that they mean nothing by them.  But it is my “teery”* (and it is all mine)
> that nobody uses a metaphor but that hizr thinking is influenced by it.
> The influence can be inexplicit, in which case the user is blind to its
> effects on himmr, or explicit, in which case the user’s imagination is
> enhanced by its use and less likely to be misled by its misuse.   I would
> like to explore this “teery” using “Data Mining” as an example.  How does
> thinking of data as encased in a non-dynamic subterranean matrix shape our
> (your) thinking for good or ill?
>
>
>
> *cf, Monte Python’s Flying Circus
>
>
>
> Nick Nicholas S. Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
>
> Clark University
>
> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam [mailto:[email protected]
> <[email protected]>] *On Behalf Of *Eric Charles
> *Sent:* Friday, September 09, 2016 11:31 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> [email protected]>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics
>
>
>
> Marcus,
>
> That's an interesting distinction. Is it the case that by "theory" Nick
> was referring to something verbal and explicitly metaphorical, or would the
> results of data mining, which one sought to validate on a different sample,
> count as a "theory".
>
>
>
> So, for example, if my data mining of Marine data found that tying shoes
> left-to-right predicted success at Officer Candidate School, and I then
> went to test for that "prediction" in a later sample of incoming officer
> candidates, to what extent is my prediction based on "a theory".
>
>
>
> Of course, "data mining will be a  useful way to uncover patterns" is
> itself a theory, applicable in some domains but not others (i.e., not all
> domains of inquiry will contain the sought after patterns in a long-term
> stable form).
>
>
>
> Eric
>
>
>
>
>
> -----------
> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
> Supervisory Survey Statistician
>
> U.S. Marine Corps
>
>
>
> On Fri, Sep 9, 2016 at 10:51 AM, Marcus Daniels <[email protected]>
> wrote:
>
> *“*I know that theories are really useful for making predictions, but can
> one actually make a prediction without one?”
>
>
>
> Yes, that’s what data mining is:  Take a large corpus of data, find some
> statistically rare relationships, and then test for their predictive value
> on another large corpus of data.     In this way one can predict things
> without really having any kind of theory or even domain knowledge.
>
>
>
> Marcus
>
>
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