Have computers made inferences? I know the obvious answer but Nick uses language in a special way.
Frank Frank Wimberly Phone (505) 670-9918 On Sep 9, 2016 1:02 PM, "Nick Thompson" <[email protected]> wrote: > M- > > > > No statistic has ever made an inference. > > > > N > > > > Nicholas S. Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology > > Clark University > > http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/ > > > > *From:* Friam [mailto:[email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Marcus > Daniels > *Sent:* Friday, September 09, 2016 2:42 PM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > [email protected]> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics > > > > Fine, “statistical inference” then. > > > > *From:* Friam [mailto:[email protected] > <[email protected]>] *On Behalf Of *Nick Thompson > *Sent:* Friday, September 09, 2016 12:38 PM > *To:* 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' < > [email protected]> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics > > > > And data “mining” is a metaphor. > > > > Now people claim to use metaphors “metaphorically”, by which they mean > that they mean nothing by them. But it is my “teery”* (and it is all mine) > that nobody uses a metaphor but that hizr thinking is influenced by it. > The influence can be inexplicit, in which case the user is blind to its > effects on himmr, or explicit, in which case the user’s imagination is > enhanced by its use and less likely to be misled by its misuse. I would > like to explore this “teery” using “Data Mining” as an example. How does > thinking of data as encased in a non-dynamic subterranean matrix shape our > (your) thinking for good or ill? > > > > *cf, Monte Python’s Flying Circus > > > > Nick Nicholas S. Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology > > Clark University > > http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/ > > > > *From:* Friam [mailto:[email protected] > <[email protected]>] *On Behalf Of *Eric Charles > *Sent:* Friday, September 09, 2016 11:31 AM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > [email protected]> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics > > > > Marcus, > > That's an interesting distinction. Is it the case that by "theory" Nick > was referring to something verbal and explicitly metaphorical, or would the > results of data mining, which one sought to validate on a different sample, > count as a "theory". > > > > So, for example, if my data mining of Marine data found that tying shoes > left-to-right predicted success at Officer Candidate School, and I then > went to test for that "prediction" in a later sample of incoming officer > candidates, to what extent is my prediction based on "a theory". > > > > Of course, "data mining will be a useful way to uncover patterns" is > itself a theory, applicable in some domains but not others (i.e., not all > domains of inquiry will contain the sought after patterns in a long-term > stable form). > > > > Eric > > > > > > ----------- > Eric P. Charles, Ph.D. > Supervisory Survey Statistician > > U.S. Marine Corps > > > > On Fri, Sep 9, 2016 at 10:51 AM, Marcus Daniels <[email protected]> > wrote: > > *“*I know that theories are really useful for making predictions, but can > one actually make a prediction without one?” > > > > Yes, that’s what data mining is: Take a large corpus of data, find some > statistically rare relationships, and then test for their predictive value > on another large corpus of data. In this way one can predict things > without really having any kind of theory or even domain knowledge. > > > > Marcus > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >
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