Hi Nick, Thanks for the great metaphor! I'm an omelet too, and OMG I've just become Visiting Professor in Conflict Studies at Saint Paul University in Ottawa, Canada. Stu Kauffman and I spent some time together at his house on Crane Island two weeks ago, and he's helping me stir the omelet. I'm teaching a course to Canadian government officials on how to use CAS for what they call "Integrative Peacebuilding"--they have Trudeau, we have Trump. Agghh!
Warmest regards as always, On Fri, Sep 9, 2016 at 8:46 AM, Nick Thompson <[email protected]> wrote: > Hi, Roger. > > > > That was some hurricane, huh? I thought of you in Boston Harbor, battened > against the lashing gales. > > > > Speaking of analytics, I was struck by the notion of having a prediction > without a theory. I am wondering if that is actually possible. I know > that theories are really useful for making predictions, but can one > actually make a prediction without one? Perhaps meteorology would be a > good domain in which to think this through. The lowest level of prediction > (and one that works remarkably and embarrassingly well) is to predict that > tomorrow’s weather will be the same as todays …. “persistence > forecasting.” But even that entails a theory that the weather is stable. > Then one can have dynamic persistence theories, which one would apply to > the stuff floating down a river ... the river will continue to flow down to > me. The jet stream is sometimes like that. And jet “stream” is, after > all, a metaphor. And this is making me think that we ought perhaps to talk > about “levels of theory”, rather than “theory/non-theory”, persistence > forecasting being the application of a VERY low level theory. > > > > Anyway, I am probably bending this thread horribly. Off on my own cloud. > Age has addled my brain, and now the heat has cooked it. I am an omelet. > > > > Take care and keep afloat. > > > > Nick > > > > Nicholas S. Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology > > Clark University > > http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/ > > > > *From:* Friam [mailto:[email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Roger > Critchlow > *Sent:* Thursday, September 08, 2016 7:21 PM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > [email protected]> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics > > > > See the result of the AI judged beauty contest? Apparently the training > set needed more curation. Very teachable moment. > > -- rec -- > > > > On Sep 8, 2016 7:10 PM, "Marcus Daniels" <[email protected]> wrote: > > Racial profiling is a single dimensional predictor. It's bad because it > is regressive, not because race is a useless predictor. > There are lots of attributes like that, and big data is just puts them > together to predict aggregate behaviors about people without really having > a theory of mind of that individual or a theory of mind at all. Like > trying to learn from Google without understanding the reading and writing > of human language. I think the FOIA type concerns should be fixable in > principle. But in practice, these databases and algorithms are tightly > held intellectual property that the government licenses from companies. > Without sweeping legislation, the government can't get their hands on it, > and the people interested in applying these systems, like law enforcement, > aren't necessarily the most curious people in the world to begin with. > Push a button and get an authoritative answer. What could be better? > You're guilty because the system said so. > > -----Original Message----- > From: Friam [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of glen ? > Sent: Thursday, September 08, 2016 4:54 PM > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]> > Subject: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics > > > The case against big data: "It’s like you’re being put into a cult, but > you don’t actually believe in it" > http://www.salon.com/2016/09/08/the-case-against-big-data- > it-is-like-youre-being-put-into-a-cult-but-you-dont- > actually-believe-in-it/ > > > But it’s opaque right? Which is also what a lot of these things have in > common. > > > > It’s opaque, and it’s unaccountable. You cannot appeal it because it is > opaque. Not only is it opaque, but I actually filed a Freedom of > Information Act request to get the source code. And I was told I couldn’t > get the source code and not only that, but I was told the reason why was > that New York City had signed a contract with this place called VARK in > Madison, Wisconsin. Which was an agreement that they wouldn’t get access to > the source code either. The Department of Education, the city of New York > City but nobody in the city, in other words, could truly explain the scores > of the teachers. > > > > It was like an alien had come down to earth and said, "Here are some > scores, we’re not gonna explain them to you, but you should trust them. And > by the way you can’t appeal them and you will not be given explanations for > how to get better." > > -- > ☣ glen > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe > http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > -- Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D. President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA [email protected] mobile: (303) 859-5609 skype: merle.lelfkoff2
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