Based on https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/peirce/#dia - it looks like
abduction (AAA-2) to me - ie developing an educated guess as to which
might be the winning wheel. Enough funds should find it with some degree
of certainty but that may be a different question and should use
different statistics because the 'longest run' is a poor metric compared
to say net winnings or average rate of winning. A long run is itself a
data point and the premise in red (below) is false.
Waiting for wisdom to kick in. R
PS FWIW the article does not contain the phrase 'scientific induction' R
On 12/12/16 12:31 AM, Nick Thompson wrote:
Dear Wise Persons,
Would the following work?
*/Imagine you enter a casino that has a thousand roulette tables. The
rumor circulates around the casino that one of the wheels is loaded.
So, you call up a thousand of your friends and you all work together
to find the loaded wheel. Why, because if you use your knowledge to
play that wheel you will make a LOT of money. Now the problem you all
face, of course, is that a run of successes is not an infallible sign
of a loaded wheel. In fact, given randomness, it is assured that with
a thousand players playing a thousand wheels as fast as they can,
there will be random long runs of successes. But the longer a run of
success continues, the greater is the probability that the wheel that
produces those successes is biased. So, your team of players would be
paid, on this account, for beginning to focus its play on those wheels
with the longest runs. /*
FWIW, this, I think, is Peirce’s model of scientific induction.
Nick
Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
Clark University
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
<http://home.earthlink.net/%7Enickthompson/naturaldesigns/>
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