I'll assume you meant something generic like: "*focus its play on those wheels with the longest runs [of unusual results, whatever form that might take]."*
With that in mind, your test better work. If it doesn't, then casinos and players have wasted a lot of time worrying about loaded equipment. Or, to phrase it differently, if I'm the casino manager, and you tell me we have a problem with a loaded wheel, you'll have my attention. However, if you also tell me that someone following the proposed plan couldn't possibly detect the difference between the loaded wheel and a non-loaded one, then you'll lose my attention, because apparently you don't know what the word "loaded" means. Now, you (Nick) might be pointing out that if we spun each wheel a million times, then concluded which one was *the* loaded one, *and* made a fortune betting smartly for the next million spins... it is still the case that our conclusion may be drawn into suspicion during the third million spins. That strikes me as a different problem... That is, the question of the best way to make money off of a loaded wheel shouldn't be held up by generic reference to the problem of induction. ----------- Eric P. Charles, Ph.D. Supervisory Survey Statistician U.S. Marine Corps <[email protected]> On Mon, Dec 12, 2016 at 12:44 PM, Robert J. Cordingley < [email protected]> wrote: > Based on https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/peirce/#dia - it looks like > abduction (AAA-2) to me - ie developing an educated guess as to which might > be the winning wheel. Enough funds should find it with some degree of > certainty but that may be a different question and should use different > statistics because the 'longest run' is a poor metric compared to say net > winnings or average rate of winning. A long run is itself a data point and > the premise in red (below) is false. > > Waiting for wisdom to kick in. R > > PS FWIW the article does not contain the phrase 'scientific induction' R > > On 12/12/16 12:31 AM, Nick Thompson wrote: > > Dear Wise Persons, > > > > Would the following work? > > > > *Imagine you enter a casino that has a thousand roulette tables. The > rumor circulates around the casino that one of the wheels is loaded. So, > you call up a thousand of your friends and you all work together to find > the loaded wheel. Why, because if you use your knowledge to play that > wheel you will make a LOT of money. Now the problem you all face, of > course, is that a run of successes is not an infallible sign of a loaded > wheel. In fact, given randomness, it is assured that with a thousand > players playing a thousand wheels as fast as they can, there will be random > long runs of successes. But the longer a run of success continues, the > greater is the probability that the wheel that produces those successes is > biased. So, your team of players would be paid, on this account, for > beginning to focus its play on those wheels with the longest runs. * > > > > FWIW, this, I think, is Peirce’s model of scientific induction. > > > > Nick > > > > Nicholas S. Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology > > Clark University > > http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/ > > > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > > > -- > Cirrillian > Web Design & Development > Santa Fe, NMhttp://cirrillian.com281-989-6272 <(281)%20989-6272> (cell) > Member Design Corps of Santa Fe > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >
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