What's the difference between mathematical induction and scientific? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_induction
-- Owen On Mon, Dec 12, 2016 at 10:44 AM, Robert J. Cordingley < [email protected]> wrote: > Based on https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/peirce/#dia - it looks like > abduction (AAA-2) to me - ie developing an educated guess as to which might > be the winning wheel. Enough funds should find it with some degree of > certainty but that may be a different question and should use different > statistics because the 'longest run' is a poor metric compared to say net > winnings or average rate of winning. A long run is itself a data point and > the premise in red (below) is false. > > Waiting for wisdom to kick in. R > > PS FWIW the article does not contain the phrase 'scientific induction' R > > On 12/12/16 12:31 AM, Nick Thompson wrote: > > Dear Wise Persons, > > > > Would the following work? > > > > *Imagine you enter a casino that has a thousand roulette tables. The > rumor circulates around the casino that one of the wheels is loaded. So, > you call up a thousand of your friends and you all work together to find > the loaded wheel. Why, because if you use your knowledge to play that > wheel you will make a LOT of money. Now the problem you all face, of > course, is that a run of successes is not an infallible sign of a loaded > wheel. In fact, given randomness, it is assured that with a thousand > players playing a thousand wheels as fast as they can, there will be random > long runs of successes. But the longer a run of success continues, the > greater is the probability that the wheel that produces those successes is > biased. So, your team of players would be paid, on this account, for > beginning to focus its play on those wheels with the longest runs. * > > > > FWIW, this, I think, is Peirce’s model of scientific induction. > > > > Nick > > > > Nicholas S. Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology > > Clark University > > http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/ > > > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > > > -- > Cirrillian > Web Design & Development > Santa Fe, NMhttp://cirrillian.com281-989-6272 <(281)%20989-6272> (cell) > Member Design Corps of Santa Fe > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >
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