I'm not following the public debate/discussion on this, but I think we discussed this here a few months ago?

Even though I lived and worked in the belly of the (Nuclear Weapons Complex) beast for decades, I admit to not knowing with any degree of certainty how direct the "Launch Codes" and mechanisms in the various command centers (white house situation, Cheyenne Mtn, ???) or via the "Nuclear Football" are connected to the actual launching mechanisms.


I understand that the Nuclear Football is carried by an aide-de-camp (who is this for Trump, someone different every day/week?) and can imagine that person wrestling it away from him when he is in a fit of pique, as might the Sec'y of Defense or one of the Joint Chiefs body-check him as he reaches for the "FIRE!" button (is there actually a lock-out switch or something involved?). According to Wikipedia, the President's identity must be verified (the purpose of the launch code?) which the Sec'y of Defense is burdened with authenticating? In principle, he does not have veto power, but in practice I like to visualize "Mad Dog" Madis decking "The Donald" when he tries to launch agains NK (or anyone), then politely reaching out to help him up off the floor and asking him "are you OK? are you having a siezure?" and then decking him again, eventually getting some help to haul him off to a hospital bed (with restraints) in a padded room in a coma.

I also understand that every "launch site" implements a two-man rule for the actual mechanism for arming/launching which I believe means that at each launch site we have two more people with "practical" (if not legal) veto power. Meanwhile a (small) host of maintenance and operational staff in the subs/silos/bombers have some practical opportunity to at least disable (or fail to enable) the warheads or launch capabiities as well.

With that model, I would say there are a "few" fuses in the circuit that *might* prevent an other-than-sane President from actually effectively launching any missiles. I'm waiting for the "Presidential Order" to come down directing that the launch mechanisms be connected directly to a twitter feed so that he can launch with nothing more than a clever hashtag "#nukemYooge @NK" or somesuch?!

With the various leaky leaks and the leaking leakers who leak them afoot in spite of the AG's "don't do it!" admonition afoot, I would not be surprised if there aren't many Silo/Sub/Bomber operations people discussing among themselves in 2's and 3's or entire teams "what we do if he pulls the trigger??!!!"

I think I'm more worried for Japan than SK or US protectorates or the US west coast... seems like an easier target might be Japan (Okinawa is fat, but there are several other US Military targets as well).

If Putin was the friend Trump seems to want him to be, HE would take care of any retaliation for us I would think? Let one bully's bully-friend smack down the little bully-wanna-be for the first bully? Trump is a whackadoodle loose cannon, but Putin is more of a Junkyard Dog, probably more intimidating to Kim Jong-Un than the Donald is? But then that probably wouldn't play well with the third nuclear Super Power.

It probably doesn't matter which side of the equator you live in in Ecuador, but "back in the day" nuclear winter (and less outrageous alternatives) models were more gentle in the southern Hemisphere.

I hate to realize that I am even spending cycles thinking about this!?!

- Steve


On 8/9/17 5:05 PM, Gary Schiltz wrote:
It's bad enough that he's "out of his friggin' mind", but a CNN piece today asks, "Could Congress stop Trump from bombing North Korea?" The reporter's conclusion is basically that no, it couldn't. I think we all should scared witless that Trump may well pull the trigger. My only hope is that enough high-level generals would risk court martial and refuse to follow his orders. If the USA did launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike, the consequences for S Korea (and Japan?) would be horrific. And then there is the question of what China and Russia would do in response. This is really, really serious crap.

On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 5:05 PM, Nick Thompson <nickthomp...@earthlink.net <mailto:nickthomp...@earthlink.net>> wrote:

    Jochen,

    He’s out of his friggin mind.  There are those who feel that the
    risk arising from the stultification of our political system was
    so bad that it justified taking this sort of existential risk
    (Hey, Dave!), but I am not one of them.  Small interesting things
    ARE starting to happen, (meetings amongst scared non-crazy people
    in congress) and I am grateful for those, but whether they will
    develop in time to rescue us, is by no means certain.

    People keep offering me as comfort the fact that the South Koreans
    aren’t worried …. 30 million people on the edge of obliteration
    from conventional shells full of sarin.  Why does that not comfort
    me?

    No, we are back to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

    Nick

    Nicholas S. Thompson

    Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

    Clark University

    http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
    <http://home.earthlink.net/%7Enickthompson/naturaldesigns/>

    *From:*Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com
    <mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>] *On Behalf Of *Jochen Fromm
    *Sent:* Wednesday, August 09, 2017 3:34 PM
    *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
    <friam@redfish.com <mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
    *Subject:* [FRIAM] The apocalypse

    What's the matter with your president? I am worried we are heading
    to the apocalypse. The "fire and fury" threat feels like the Cuban
    missile crisis or worse.

    http://blog.cas-group.net/2017/08/the-apocalypse/
    <http://blog.cas-group.net/2017/08/the-apocalypse/>

    And then there is the issue of global warming which the Trump
    administration ignores now. This is not just one apocalypse, it is
    two.

    -J.


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