> Steve, > > > > I like your long wind. > > > > I am grateful for your attempt to imagine a world in the interim > between the wave and the vaccine. > In the world pre-vaccine (including among wild animal populations), the only thing keeping a disease from extincting a population IS a combination of herd-immunity through antibody formation and death itself. Highly deadly things like Ebola burn out because they kill nearly everyone who contracts it, leaving nobody in the village to re-infect. Entire populations can get wiped out in the wild... (early 2000s, the magpies on the Rio Grande were decimated and are only just now starting to return)
Our modern hyper-mixing (travel at many scales yielding contact graphs at many scales) really aggravates disease spread cum epidemic cum pandemic. > > > Has china actually eliminated the virus from the population and the > are merely putting out sparks that have blown in from other places? > I doubt it... and your reference to a "fire" analogy is apt... the sparks are more likely coming from smoldering areas *within*... catching flame in a wind and tosssing sparks into the next unburned patch... > > > > Nick > > > > Nicholas Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > > Clark University > > [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > > > *From:* Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Steven A Smith > *Sent:* Tuesday, April 7, 2020 11:38 PM > *To:* [email protected] > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState > > > > > > Nick - > > I wrote (yet) another long-winded answer but am trying to give you the > most succinct version I can: > > > > I think you are nearly correct. > > > > First: Yes, "community transmission" is somewhat another name for our > ignorance... but it is a critical threshold. As soon as you have one > case you don't know where it came from, it is very likely that you > have more, and for each of those, you will have yet more... so it > isn't quite as benign as simple "ignorance" implies... > > > > Second: The virus will spread exponentially until we reduce the > average number of people to be infected by a given infected person. > This is what is called R0. As people get infected and recover and > therefore become (very likely) immune, the number of susceptible > individuals in the population goes down, and the R0 with it. If you > encounter 10 people a day on average, and have a 20% chance of > infecting them but half of them are immune, then your R0 becomes > 10*.2/2 = 1.0 ! When R0 drops to 1.0, the exponential growth > flattens to linear and anything below 1.0 leads to an eventual dying > out. A widely deployed vaccine allows you to skip the step of > having to become infected, survive, and recover. > > > > In the meantime (before sufficient herd-immunity is reached naturally, > augmented by vaccines eventually) we need to practice some amount of > social distancing to keep R0 down. As we learn more about the modes > of transmission, add early detection (through widespread testing, and > possibly wide-spread citizen-reporting) then our best hope is > significant social distancing. Meanwhile, more severe social > distancing protects our most vulnerable (elderly and those with > conditions known to go badly with COVID19). We will see properly > vetted/tested anti-virals and symptom-reducers (e.g. cytokine storm > prevention) before a vaccine which will reduce the number of people > needing hospitalization as well as mortality. And lastly, > antibody/plasma transfusions may help some of the more at-risk or > critical workers have temporary immunity while they wait for a vaccine. > > > > Right now, many of us are isolated at the individual, the couple or > possibly the nuclear family unit. In principle, once we believe we > have isolated sufficiently well to not have much risk of contagion and > sufficiently long to have either had symptoms or to have been infected > asymptomatically but recovered. This might mean, for example, that > if you and your wife and your children and their children have all > remained separated but isolated, then you might be safe reuniting with > them as long as NONE OF YOU are mixing with a larger population. > > > > But like with the STD issue, all it takes is one promiscuous (outside > the group) person at the orgy to ruin the "safe space". The larger > the (extended) group, the more chance someone will defect and bring it > into the group unexpectedly. > > > > So yes, much of what you call tourism will be blunted/modified... so > will casino gambling, church attendance, public transit, etc. I > believe that buses are still running some places, but most passengers > are likely wearing gloves/masks, sitting one per seat-row and the > staff is wiping down hand-rails and other surfaces often. Airlines > will probably stand back up under similar restrictions soon. Churches > and maybe sporting events, and theater as well. But probably not for > (many?) months... > > > > I still remember when auditoriums and movie theaters had ashtrays in > the backs of seats... we will probably remember fondly when seats > were packed side-by-by side and our great grandchildren will ask > "grandpa... why are there all those holes in the floor between the > seats? People didn't *really* sit so close did they? Don't they know > that isn't safe?" and "why weren't you wearing your masks in all the > old pictures?". > > > > Hope this helps a little? > > > > - Steve > > Steve (Smith), > > > > I have always assumed that “community transmission” is one of > those bullshit terms that refers to our own ignorance. If we were > unable to find out how it got transmitted then it was an instance > of “community transmission”. Am I wrong about that? > > > > So, community transmission is just the residue after we have > failed at contact tracing. My assumption is that until we have a > vaccine, we have to maintain sufficient social distancing to make > rigorous contact tracing (and isolation) possible. In other > words, I have to have contacted so few people (because of social > isolation) that when I get sick, all the people I have contacted > can be isolated for two weeks. Such a policy might permit the > reopening of offices on a alternative shift basis and the re > opening of some stores with policies equivalent to those the food > stores are adopting, but it wont permit reopening of entertainment > venues, hair dressers, concerts, churches, lecture halls, bars, > festivals, large scale air travel, and other activities that we > think of when we think of “tourism”. > > > > I WANT to think different, and therefore I am interested in the > fact that you seem to disagree with me on this point. > > > > > > Nick > > > > > > > > > > Nicholas Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > > Clark University > > [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > > > *From:* Friam <[email protected]> > <mailto:[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Steven A Smith > *Sent:* Tuesday, April 7, 2020 6:07 PM > *To:* [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > *Subject:* [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState > > > > > > > Steve, > > > > Perhaps we might talk about this on Friday. I guess the > questions are, > > > > > “Can we eliminate community transfer?” > > By this, I assume you mean the "crypto" transfer where the > *source* of infection isn't recognized even in retrospect? > > The conventional/modeling wisdom is keeping R0 (the number of > people each infected person infects... or the *exponent* of the > exponential growth) below 1.0... > > and, if so, “At what level of social distancing do we have to > maintain in order to make sure that a program of testing, > vigorous contact tracing and isolation is assured?” > > I would claim that the *quality* of social distancing is very > important... but those "qualities" haven't been determined yet. > In principle, keeping > > > > Not clear how to do that in the blue states if the red states > are still going exponential. > > Re: Balkanization > > I speculated in another thread (another forum?) that if the Red > States continue to be reluctant to self-isolate, they will pay the > price in a tall curve, mitigated somewhat by the lower population > densities and "enclave" nature of many small towns... compared > for example to big cities connected by a carpet of suburbs mixing > commuters from multiple urban centers in every neighborhood. > > And then that Blue States might manage to flatten their curves > more quickly but aggravated by the nature of denser urban/suburban > landscapes. > > In the end, the Red States may have more (percentage) infections > and deaths, but what goes with that is higher herd-immunity. So > Blue States might want to close their borders to Red States during > the first wave, but then the Red States might want to close them > the other direction when "infiltrating" Blues are more likely to > be crypto-infected? > > I didn't like that Zombie Apocalypse series that was so popular a > few years ago because I felt it promoted xenophobia and rapid > dehumanization of "the other"... a "friend" can become a > "dangerous enemy" at the drop of a splash of blood (or spittle in > this case)? Or maybe we can follow @POTUS lead and "vote by > tweet"? then the battle will be between Russian, Chinese, and > Anonymous Bots stuffing the @USElectionBallotBox ;) ? > > > > Also, I would like to hear a lot of wisdom about how we > arrange and conduct an election during this mess. > > I think this is not so much a technical problem as a social one. > FOX and their most famous audience in the White House are already > making sounds against the idea of voting by mail as A) Unamerican; > B) likely to be cheated (only Democrats cheat of course). I > don't think it is an insurmountable technical problem (vote by > mail). Expanded "early voting" can help a lot, as can absentee > ballots. > > The scene in Wisconsin today is a good advanced test-case of how > refactoring the mechanics of an election (timing, absentee, mail, > etc.) will be politicized immediately. I'm hoping that the > remaining Democrat primaries and the Convention will serve as a > lightning rod to bring some of that out *before* the main > elections which will be much more controversial. > > I am hoping that we collectively have a much better handle on > things by then and the problem becomes *mostly* moot... though I > can imagine there will be more demand for early/absentee voting in > all venues. > > - STeve > > > > > > N > > Nicholas Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > > Clark University > > [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > > > *From:* Friam <[email protected]> > <mailto:[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Steven A Smith > *Sent:* Tuesday, April 7, 2020 9:16 AM > *To:* [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] SFI virtual workshop: After the Wave > > > > SG > > I found Meyers' talks from the Fall which preceded (presaged?) > this and thought you had just linked those! I'm glad to see > our "big siblings on the hill" are on this with full attention. > > > > Did anyone else watch this 2 hour presentation? I'm working > my way through it now in the background. > > > > SS > > > > I mentioned this on the close of Virtual Friam today: > > > https://santafe.edu/news-center/news/after-first-wave-virtual-workshop-covid-19-pandemic > > > The first wave of COVID-19 is well underway, and social > distancing will hopefully bend the curve downward (after > far too high a price is paid). But what comes next? Under > what circumstances and in what way can we lift quarantine? > On March 31, five speakers from epidemiology and economics > discussed strategies for both public health and economic > recovery and answered questions from the SFI community. > This was the first of multiple “lightning workshops” that > will be convened to address this crisis. > > Speakers: Lauren Ancel Meyers, Integrative Biology, > University of Texas, Austin; SFI Sara Del Valle, Los > Alamos National Laboratory Caroline Buckee, T.H. Chan > School of Public Health, Harvard Rajiv Sethi, Economics, > Barnard College, Columbia University; SFI Glen Weyl, > Microsoft and RadicalxChange Foundation > > > > _______________________________________________________________________ > [email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]> > > CEO, Simtable http://www.simtable.com > <http://www.simtable.com/> > > 1600 Lena St #D1, Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > office: (505)995-0206 mobile: (505)577-5828 > > twitter: @simtable > > zoom.com/j/5055775828 <http://zoom.com/j/5055775828> > > > > > > -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / --- ..-. / ..-. .-. .. .- -- > / ..- -. .. - . > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Zoom meeting Fridays 9:30a-12p Mountain USA GMT-6 > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > > to unsubscribe > http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > > > > > ..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. > --- .. > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > > > ..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- .. > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > > ..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- .. > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
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