Huh... so... there are a few ways to deal with that I guess.... which gets us back to the issue of who gets to decide "asymptomatic" (the patient or the doctor) - because "has permanent lesions in their lungs" sure seems like something a doctor would consider "a symptom"....
I guess, either way, we could just add a small chance that "asymptomatic" people develop permanent damage. ----------- Eric P. Charles, Ph.D. Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist American University - Adjunct Instructor <[email protected]> On Sat, Jul 4, 2020 at 12:26 PM Roger Critchlow <[email protected]> wrote: > Eric -- > > There's this from June 23, > https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/06/23/864536258/we-still-dont-fully-understand-the-label-asymptomatic > > The findings are consistent with several studies following asymptomatic >> patients in China, which have found that many can >> <https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7152865/> develop lesions >> in the lungs despite having no outward symptoms, says Dr. Jennifer >> Taylor-Cousar >> <https://www.nationaljewish.org/doctors-departments/providers/physicians/jennifer-l-taylor-cousar>, >> a pulmonologist at National Jewish Health in Denver not involved with the >> paper. "It probably is, at least in this disease, pretty common," she says. > > > There are purely asymptomatic cases which do not progress, but we're still > figuring out how many there are, and how many of them have lesions, and > what the consequences of the lesions might be. > > -- rec -- > > On Sat, Jul 4, 2020 at 10:56 AM Eric Charles < > [email protected]> wrote: > >> Roger, >> Given that the number of confirmed cases in the U.S. is still likely a >> small fraction of the number of actual infections... and infected >> youngsters are still showing infinitesimal risk several months after the >> outbreak started... I think "asymptomatic" directly to "recovered" seems >> very plausible. The real problem when discussing "asymptomatic" is that >> there is a huge difference between a dude who would say "no symptoms here, >> I'm fine" and a person a doctor would thoroughly examine and declare to >> have no symptoms. So "asymptomatic" should really be understood as "cases >> that don't bother people more than whatever normal crap they deal with" or >> something like that. >> >> You're certainly right though that permanent damage is a big concern and >> a big unknown. I think the chart estimates are probably not bad, but we >> won't know for a long time: For the "moderate cases", 2d4 damage but you >> only recover 6, is a 19% chance of permanent damage, which is unlikely to >> make you very disabled. For the "severe" cases, 2d6 damage and you only >> recover 6, is a 50% of permanent damage, and a lot of possibility that you >> will be much worse off afterwards. (And, of course, it depends on the >> constitution level you start with.) >> >> ----------- >> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D. >> Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist >> American University - Adjunct Instructor >> <[email protected]> >> >> >> On Fri, Jul 3, 2020 at 1:39 PM Roger Critchlow <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> Pretty horrible. >>> >>> But the real horror was >>> https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/01/coronavirus-autopsies-findings/ >>> which >>> made me wonder how asymptomatic the asymptomatic infections really are. >>> Like the early report of 3 scuba divers in Austria who self-isolated >>> through mild cases and then found out that their lungs were no longer >>> suitable for diving. So there may be Recovery branches under the >>> Asymptomatic and Moderate Illness branches of the game, with possible never >>> recovered CON penalties on their tail ends. We'll find out when people >>> start going back to the doctor for checkups, or having trouble shaking the >>> flu. >>> >>> And have we actually decided that asymptomatic is anything but a >>> variable length precursor to Moderate or Serious Illness? I thought that >>> was still an open question. >>> >>> -- rec -- >>> >>> On Fri, Jul 3, 2020 at 9:33 AM Eric Charles < >>> [email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> Hey, thought many of you might get a kick out of this (or be >>>> horrified... or both). >>>> >>>> [image: The Covid Game.jpg] >>>> >>>> Note that it starts with someone who is for sure infected, and the >>>> footnote states it is within 1.5% accuracy for people ages 20 to 89. >>>> >>>> So far as I can trace it back, I think the author is a guy named Clay >>>> Dreslough. He posted it with the following guide a guide to help non-gamers >>>> (and the guide assumes people don't own a 100 sided die... which is weird >>>> ;- ): >>>> >>>> For non-nerds: >>>> >>>> The number before the 'd' is the number of dice you roll, the number >>>> after is the number of sides on the die. For example, 2d6 = roll two >>>> 6-sided dice and add them together, giving you a possible range of 2-12. In >>>> the 'Asymptomatic' box, there is an additional step in the formula, where >>>> you subtract a number. For example, the 'Mask' roll is 2d6-8, meaning roll >>>> two 6-sided dice and subtract eight, giving you a range of 0-4 for the >>>> number of people you infect while wearing a mask (results below zero are >>>> treated as zero — you can't infect a negative number of people). >>>> >>>> A d100 roll refers to taking two 10-sided dice, and designating one as >>>> your tens unit, one as your ones unit. The example in the upper right of >>>> the graphic shows a 3 and a 7, which becomes 37. Rolling two 0s yields 100, >>>> not 00. >>>> >>>> So, all the places where it asks for d100 + your age, you'll do just >>>> that. For me, being 49, this gives me a random number from 50 to 149. I >>>> then find the arrow matching my roll and follow it to the next box. >>>> >>>> Finally, CON refers to your "Constitution" stat in Dungeons & Dragons — >>>> a general measure of your physical health and endurance. The average person >>>> has a CON of 10. An olympic athlete has a CON around 18. >>>> >>>> Note that while the fatality rates are pretty accurate for current CDC >>>> data, there's really no data on "permanent damage" (in the same way that, >>>> 19+ years later, we are still arguing about the number of soldiers >>>> suffering from Gulf War Syndrome and the number of first responders >>>> sickened by 9/11). And of course the medical community doesn't define "a >>>> point of constitution", so that's just a guess. But I know more than one >>>> person that's "recovered" and are still incapacitated to some degree. >>>> >>>> ----------- >>>> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D. >>>> Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist >>>> American University - Adjunct Instructor >>>> <[email protected]> >>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>> >>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>> >> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >
- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
