Or maybe give them an "unknown chance" of permanent damage, that they can redeem at some time in the future. Did you win or lose? Only time will tell.
-- rec -- On Sat, Jul 4, 2020 at 1:26 PM Eric Charles <[email protected]> wrote: > Huh... so... there are a few ways to deal with that I guess.... which gets > us back to the issue of who gets to decide "asymptomatic" (the patient or > the doctor) - because "has permanent lesions in their lungs" sure seems > like something a doctor would consider "a symptom".... > > I guess, either way, we could just add a small chance that > "asymptomatic" people develop permanent damage. > > > > ----------- > Eric P. Charles, Ph.D. > Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist > American University - Adjunct Instructor > <[email protected]> > > > On Sat, Jul 4, 2020 at 12:26 PM Roger Critchlow <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Eric -- >> >> There's this from June 23, >> https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/06/23/864536258/we-still-dont-fully-understand-the-label-asymptomatic >> >> The findings are consistent with several studies following asymptomatic >>> patients in China, which have found that many can >>> <https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7152865/> develop lesions >>> in the lungs despite having no outward symptoms, says Dr. Jennifer >>> Taylor-Cousar >>> <https://www.nationaljewish.org/doctors-departments/providers/physicians/jennifer-l-taylor-cousar>, >>> a pulmonologist at National Jewish Health in Denver not involved with the >>> paper. "It probably is, at least in this disease, pretty common," she says. >> >> >> There are purely asymptomatic cases which do not progress, but we're >> still figuring out how many there are, and how many of them have lesions, >> and what the consequences of the lesions might be. >> >> -- rec -- >> >> On Sat, Jul 4, 2020 at 10:56 AM Eric Charles < >> [email protected]> wrote: >> >>> Roger, >>> Given that the number of confirmed cases in the U.S. is still likely a >>> small fraction of the number of actual infections... and infected >>> youngsters are still showing infinitesimal risk several months after the >>> outbreak started... I think "asymptomatic" directly to "recovered" seems >>> very plausible. The real problem when discussing "asymptomatic" is that >>> there is a huge difference between a dude who would say "no symptoms here, >>> I'm fine" and a person a doctor would thoroughly examine and declare to >>> have no symptoms. So "asymptomatic" should really be understood as "cases >>> that don't bother people more than whatever normal crap they deal with" or >>> something like that. >>> >>> You're certainly right though that permanent damage is a big concern and >>> a big unknown. I think the chart estimates are probably not bad, but we >>> won't know for a long time: For the "moderate cases", 2d4 damage but you >>> only recover 6, is a 19% chance of permanent damage, which is unlikely to >>> make you very disabled. For the "severe" cases, 2d6 damage and you only >>> recover 6, is a 50% of permanent damage, and a lot of possibility that you >>> will be much worse off afterwards. (And, of course, it depends on the >>> constitution level you start with.) >>> >>> ----------- >>> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D. >>> Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist >>> American University - Adjunct Instructor >>> <[email protected]> >>> >>> >>> On Fri, Jul 3, 2020 at 1:39 PM Roger Critchlow <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> Pretty horrible. >>>> >>>> But the real horror was >>>> https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/01/coronavirus-autopsies-findings/ >>>> which >>>> made me wonder how asymptomatic the asymptomatic infections really are. >>>> Like the early report of 3 scuba divers in Austria who self-isolated >>>> through mild cases and then found out that their lungs were no longer >>>> suitable for diving. So there may be Recovery branches under the >>>> Asymptomatic and Moderate Illness branches of the game, with possible never >>>> recovered CON penalties on their tail ends. We'll find out when people >>>> start going back to the doctor for checkups, or having trouble shaking the >>>> flu. >>>> >>>> And have we actually decided that asymptomatic is anything but a >>>> variable length precursor to Moderate or Serious Illness? I thought that >>>> was still an open question. >>>> >>>> -- rec -- >>>> >>>> On Fri, Jul 3, 2020 at 9:33 AM Eric Charles < >>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>> >>>>> Hey, thought many of you might get a kick out of this (or be >>>>> horrified... or both). >>>>> >>>>> [image: The Covid Game.jpg] >>>>> >>>>> Note that it starts with someone who is for sure infected, and the >>>>> footnote states it is within 1.5% accuracy for people ages 20 to 89. >>>>> >>>>> So far as I can trace it back, I think the author is a guy named Clay >>>>> Dreslough. He posted it with the following guide a guide to help >>>>> non-gamers >>>>> (and the guide assumes people don't own a 100 sided die... which is weird >>>>> ;- ): >>>>> >>>>> For non-nerds: >>>>> >>>>> The number before the 'd' is the number of dice you roll, the number >>>>> after is the number of sides on the die. For example, 2d6 = roll two >>>>> 6-sided dice and add them together, giving you a possible range of 2-12. >>>>> In >>>>> the 'Asymptomatic' box, there is an additional step in the formula, where >>>>> you subtract a number. For example, the 'Mask' roll is 2d6-8, meaning roll >>>>> two 6-sided dice and subtract eight, giving you a range of 0-4 for the >>>>> number of people you infect while wearing a mask (results below zero are >>>>> treated as zero — you can't infect a negative number of people). >>>>> >>>>> A d100 roll refers to taking two 10-sided dice, and designating one as >>>>> your tens unit, one as your ones unit. The example in the upper right of >>>>> the graphic shows a 3 and a 7, which becomes 37. Rolling two 0s yields >>>>> 100, >>>>> not 00. >>>>> >>>>> So, all the places where it asks for d100 + your age, you'll do just >>>>> that. For me, being 49, this gives me a random number from 50 to 149. I >>>>> then find the arrow matching my roll and follow it to the next box. >>>>> >>>>> Finally, CON refers to your "Constitution" stat in Dungeons & Dragons >>>>> — a general measure of your physical health and endurance. The average >>>>> person has a CON of 10. An olympic athlete has a CON around 18. >>>>> >>>>> Note that while the fatality rates are pretty accurate for current CDC >>>>> data, there's really no data on "permanent damage" (in the same way that, >>>>> 19+ years later, we are still arguing about the number of soldiers >>>>> suffering from Gulf War Syndrome and the number of first responders >>>>> sickened by 9/11). And of course the medical community doesn't define "a >>>>> point of constitution", so that's just a guess. But I know more than one >>>>> person that's "recovered" and are still incapacitated to some degree. >>>>> >>>>> ----------- >>>>> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D. >>>>> Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist >>>>> American University - Adjunct Instructor >>>>> <[email protected]> >>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>>> >>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>> >>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>> >> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >
- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
