The deaths curve follows the cases curve (with different scale and time
lag) pretty well until about two weeks ago. I think the age distribution
started before that. It is possible, I guess, if the age went down
around Memorial Day, and the time lag is just so, this could be the age
distribution showing, but I would have expected it to show up earlier.
We’ll see in a few weeks, and we may know if there were snafus in the
reporting process.
—Barry
On 23 Jul 2020, at 12:26, [email protected] wrote:
B.
But I thought that everybody agreed that the age distribution IS
changing.
N
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
<mailto:[email protected]> [email protected]
<https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/>
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
From: Friam <[email protected]> On Behalf Of Barry MacKichan
Sent: Thursday, July 23, 2020 9:40 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
<[email protected]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid graph
The method for reporting Covid data changed, and public health people
were predicting that it increased the burden for already overburdened
hospitals. Is that possibly an explanation for the leveling off? If
not, what would cause deaths to level off while cases (and
hospitalizations as seen in the Atlantic article (
<https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/second-coronavirus-death-surge/614122/>
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/second-coronavirus-death-surge/614122/)
continue to rise? I doubt that the age distribution would be changing
suddenly, or that the treatments are suddenly better than two weeks
ago.
—Barry
On 22 Jul 2020, at 21:24, Eric Charles wrote:
but the associated uptick in deaths is already leveling off after
starting two weeks ago
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