Isn’t the case that if the disease kills the most vulnerable people first and is stopped (Italy) then we will see a high death rate. But if the disease kills the most vulnerable people first and is not stopped, (US) then the death rate will fall as the “most vulnerable” are both eliminated and more assiduously protected. Am I missing a point, here?
N Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected] <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[email protected]> On Behalf Of Eric Charles Sent: Thursday, July 23, 2020 1:28 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid graph But compare across the three counties. Italy leads us to believe it is a simple lag between cases and deaths... but the US and Sweden don't go with that at all. And adding more countries doesn't significantly help that confusion. On Thu, Jul 23, 2020, 3:07 PM Barry MacKichan <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > wrote: The deaths curve follows the cases curve (with different scale and time lag) pretty well until about two weeks ago. I think the age distribution started before that. It is possible, I guess, if the age went down around Memorial Day, and the time lag is just so, this could be the age distribution showing, but I would have expected it to show up earlier. We’ll see in a few weeks, and we may know if there were snafus in the reporting process. —Barry On 23 Jul 2020, at 12:26, [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> wrote: B. But I thought that everybody agreed that the age distribution IS changing. N Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected] <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > On Behalf Of Barry MacKichan Sent: Thursday, July 23, 2020 9:40 AM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid graph The method for reporting Covid data changed, and public health people were predicting that it increased the burden for already overburdened hospitals. Is that possibly an explanation for the leveling off? If not, what would cause deaths to level off while cases (and hospitalizations as seen in the Atlantic article ( <https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/second-coronavirus-death-surge/614122/> https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/second-coronavirus-death-surge/614122/) continue to rise? I doubt that the age distribution would be changing suddenly, or that the treatments are suddenly better than two weeks ago. —Barry On 22 Jul 2020, at 21:24, Eric Charles wrote: but the associated uptick in deaths is already leveling off after starting two weeks ago - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam <http://bit.ly/virtualfriam> un/subscribe <http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com> http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/> http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC <http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/> http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam <http://bit.ly/virtualfriam> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
