We can measure the bias is by holding an election, everything else is estimating bias and yielding distributions that probably include the true bias. The election outcome is a population description, polls are samples.
Tired of typing on my phone. -- rec -- On Thu, Oct 29, 2020, 12:55 PM <[email protected]> wrote: > Roger wrote: > > > > However, if there is the tiniest tendency toward voting one way or the > other, then the probability of a close result dwindles with the turnout: > > > > If you are correct here, then why doesn’t it upend small sample theory? > Sample variance = population variance / sample size? > > > > Nick > > > > Nicholas Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > > Clark University > > [email protected] > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > > > *From:* Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Roger Critchlow > *Sent:* Thursday, October 29, 2020 9:33 AM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > [email protected]> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] high turnout and tight races? > > > > You're right, assuming that either vote is equally likely: > > > > julia> for n in [10000, 100000, 1000000] > # run 1000 simulations > close = 0 > for x in 1:1000 > # collect votes > v = rand(Int(n)) > n1 = count(v .< 0.5) > n2 = n-n1 > if (n1-n2)/n < 0.01 > close += 1 > end > end > p = close/1000 > println("pop $n has p(close) $p"); > end > pop 10000 has p(close) 0.841 > pop 100000 has p(close) 0.999 > pop 1000000 has p(close) 1.0 > > > > However, if there is the tiniest tendency toward voting one way or the > other, then the probability of a close result dwindles with the turnout: > > > > bias = 0.51 > for n in [10000, 100000, 1000000] > # run 1000 simulations > close = 0 > for x in 1:1000 > # collect votes > v = rand(Int(n)) > n1 = count(v .< bias) > n2 = n-n1 > if (n1-n2)/n < 0.01 > close += 1 > end > end > p = close/1000 > println("pop $n has p(close) $p"); > end > > > > pop 10000 has p(close) 0.166 > pop 100000 has p(close) 0.001 > pop 1000000 has p(close) 0.0 > > > > -- rec -- > > > > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020 at 10:46 PM <[email protected]> wrote: > > HANG ON, Roger > > > > Variance decreases with N. > > > > Nicholas Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > > Clark University > > [email protected] > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > > > *From:* Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Roger Critchlow > *Sent:* Wednesday, October 28, 2020 7:16 PM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > [email protected]> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] high turnout and tight races? > > > > I would think that the more people who vote the less likely a tie or close > outcome becomes, simply by the larger number of ways you can miss with more > votes in play. > > > > -- rec -- > > > > > > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020 at 8:17 PM Frank Wimberly <[email protected]> > wrote: > > N = 3 is slightly better. But I don't have time or incentive to do a > detailed statistical analysis. > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > > > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:14 PM Frank Wimberly <[email protected]> wrote: > > In 1964 Johnson beat Goldwater by 60 to 40. The Kennedy/Nixon and > Gore/Bush elections were extremely close. In all three elections the > turnout was between 35 and 40 percent. > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > > > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:00 PM Frank Wimberly <[email protected]> wrote: > > I'm saying that in this election there will be high turnout and not a very > close election. > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > > > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:59 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[email protected]> wrote: > > So, what about the question I asked? You have no opinion on whether high > turnout negatively or positively correlates with narrow victories? > > > On 10/28/20 4:52 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote: > > I predict that Biden will win by a large margin and that the outcome > will be clear on election night notwithstanding any outstanding uncounted > votes. Young people are voting in unprecedented numbers and are reportedly > voting against Trump. Similarly the elderly, who favored Trump over > Clinton by 10+ percentage points in 2016 are favoring Biden over Trump by a > similar margin, according to polls. > > > > The good thing about predictions is that they can be evaluated perfectly > after the events have happened. > > > > Frank > > > > --- > > Frank C. Wimberly > > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > > > 505 670-9918 > > Santa Fe, NM > > > > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:20 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[email protected] <mailto: > [email protected]>> wrote: > > > > From: > > > > https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7 < > https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7> > > "6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones Trump > notched in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less likely." > > > > Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher > turnout, which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin > victories, not against them. > > -- > ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >
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