HANG ON, Roger
Variance decreases with N. Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected] <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[email protected]> On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow Sent: Wednesday, October 28, 2020 7:16 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] high turnout and tight races? I would think that the more people who vote the less likely a tie or close outcome becomes, simply by the larger number of ways you can miss with more votes in play. -- rec -- On Wed, Oct 28, 2020 at 8:17 PM Frank Wimberly <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > wrote: N = 3 is slightly better. But I don't have time or incentive to do a detailed statistical analysis. --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:14 PM Frank Wimberly <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > wrote: In 1964 Johnson beat Goldwater by 60 to 40. The Kennedy/Nixon and Gore/Bush elections were extremely close. In all three elections the turnout was between 35 and 40 percent. --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:00 PM Frank Wimberly <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > wrote: I'm saying that in this election there will be high turnout and not a very close election. --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:59 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > wrote: So, what about the question I asked? You have no opinion on whether high turnout negatively or positively correlates with narrow victories? On 10/28/20 4:52 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote: > I predict that Biden will win by a large margin and that the outcome will be > clear on election night notwithstanding any outstanding uncounted votes. > Young people are voting in unprecedented numbers and are reportedly voting > against Trump. Similarly the elderly, who favored Trump over Clinton by 10+ > percentage points in 2016 are favoring Biden over Trump by a similar margin, > according to polls. > > The good thing about predictions is that they can be evaluated perfectly > after the events have happened. > > Frank > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:20 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]> <mailto:[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]> >> wrote: > > From: > > https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7 > <https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7> > "6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones Trump notched > in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less likely." > > Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher turnout, > which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin victories, not > against them. -- ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam <http://bit.ly/virtualfriam> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/FRIAM-COMIC> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam <http://bit.ly/virtualfriam> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
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