For an ordinary sum of values, as described by the central limit theorem with finite variance, variance increases linearly with N.
It is relative variance — variance normalized by the square of the mean — that decreases with N as 1/N. Eric > On Oct 28, 2020, at 10:46 PM, <[email protected]> > <[email protected]> wrote: > > HANG ON, Roger > > Variance decreases with N. > > Nicholas Thompson > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > Clark University > [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,JpIZN4i-yJIZ3nSFKQVodYv2Ly1HWZoKAqszi3I-n6LurxDMqTHolpMDI76QMgxqfRW4JWJNyrNPap9LQzH1zbNsfyYEnHD3o3kqMNyV5ClOewKj&typo=1> > > > From: Friam <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> On > Behalf Of Roger Critchlow > Sent: Wednesday, October 28, 2020 7:16 PM > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] high turnout and tight races? > > I would think that the more people who vote the less likely a tie or close > outcome becomes, simply by the larger number of ways you can miss with more > votes in play. > > -- rec -- > > > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020 at 8:17 PM Frank Wimberly <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: >> N = 3 is slightly better. But I don't have time or incentive to do a >> detailed statistical analysis. >> >> --- >> Frank C. Wimberly >> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >> >> 505 670-9918 >> Santa Fe, NM >> >> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:14 PM Frank Wimberly <[email protected] >> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: >>> In 1964 Johnson beat Goldwater by 60 to 40. The Kennedy/Nixon and >>> Gore/Bush elections were extremely close. In all three elections the >>> turnout was between 35 and 40 percent. >>> >>> --- >>> Frank C. Wimberly >>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >>> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >>> >>> 505 670-9918 >>> Santa Fe, NM >>> >>> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:00 PM Frank Wimberly <[email protected] >>> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: >>>> I'm saying that in this election there will be high turnout and not a very >>>> close election. >>>> >>>> --- >>>> Frank C. Wimberly >>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >>>> >>>> 505 670-9918 >>>> Santa Fe, NM >>>> >>>> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:59 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[email protected] >>>> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: >>>>> So, what about the question I asked? You have no opinion on whether high >>>>> turnout negatively or positively correlates with narrow victories? >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On 10/28/20 4:52 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote: >>>>> > I predict that Biden will win by a large margin and that the outcome >>>>> > will be clear on election night notwithstanding any outstanding >>>>> > uncounted votes. Young people are voting in unprecedented numbers and >>>>> > are reportedly voting against Trump. Similarly the elderly, who >>>>> > favored Trump over Clinton by 10+ percentage points in 2016 are >>>>> > favoring Biden over Trump by a similar margin, according to polls. >>>>> > >>>>> > The good thing about predictions is that they can be evaluated >>>>> > perfectly after the events have happened. >>>>> > >>>>> > Frank >>>>> > >>>>> > --- >>>>> > Frank C. Wimberly >>>>> > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >>>>> > Santa Fe, NM 87505 >>>>> > >>>>> > 505 670-9918 >>>>> > Santa Fe, NM >>>>> > >>>>> > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:20 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[email protected] >>>>> > <mailto:[email protected]> <mailto:[email protected] >>>>> > <mailto:[email protected]>>> wrote: >>>>> > >>>>> > From: >>>>> > >>>>> > https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7 >>>>> > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.electoral-vote.com%2fevp2020%2fPres%2fMaps%2fOct28.html%23item-7&c=E,1,3R5-SLwhyeJQbthWDBlxAt16YrH15rD0P_-VBW59uGNp9HZJJE3AT5JAzdreT8oFrKqT1lWi-JNLZ-doFp0UZ0KNVVTZ_7gV8hSceUx81MbMtuDvaYx4pjLsGQ,,&typo=1> >>>>> > <https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7 >>>>> > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.electoral-vote.com%2fevp2020%2fPres%2fMaps%2fOct28.html%23item-7&c=E,1,bXYSsq70zdX7RpHGBMmz8GczNqObKoxd3aoM-giya3dZ_Qbzmb5ka_WQ0is5kHTuA76TFPDK_jWeVMoFv0zCGre-WYf2dJ2nmd1rQtPMdK7mzaLLCfcwpEHzGxOb&typo=1>> >>>>> > "6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones Trump >>>>> > notched in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less >>>>> > likely." >>>>> > >>>>> > Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher >>>>> > turnout, which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin >>>>> > victories, not against them. >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ >>>>> >>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,Wxafx_7WIJ4cbe6kG4vPFgG-t2jmxEB6dHPaV6Pvm3U_JgbnIKM24dWPGFstj7TkhMYdO29j5_xX1TYa1ep-2h9RXJt1vuY0d38oW7ODl-ZzzYXvOMQhUdk12JUv&typo=1> >>>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,Z9AfwH6YQqwwbAdgX4_VgANFcMou21nCiq71srt6HjYuND_0R5QEzcsxOjc6kxJnjEo5ymGhj81VL60H7Mrj15ukEAxrfZVA-VnYAzOw6LBr8ps9j32qpWY,&typo=1> >>>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>>> FRIAM-COMIC <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/FRIAM-COMIC> >>>>> http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,ZZ_7b0lScZFmgrB-bGEkocamtcSS5fyN8uIYws4t7C3Q5IgpJgDKdIdrp0PpzP1j2P81Rqkc6duXtVign5ZM60_F03iuw57hAVr-M6_qgNPih4ad70_uGR8vvbk,&typo=1> >> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,DRWJXksKt7vOfV-s9FjkswNAM4YaehYsWDRbJLYyVMgWNIjD7JSgjOjFaIUmI7eHTEtAw-DSvCIr2WIqtMUpKBRSYY7qZRpXXFo_0o1y62x6Vmida-6J58fckw,,&typo=1> >> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,PswNUvo0HISe1vFma441w7oa_46gpqXlnvYO4VNEX7NulhP2duiRmF-XkAoKlOzA0EEeuQv3d7J8rFx47YuINCJd1mCWGaYMzYFOmX0toyT9DRgiSvo,&typo=1> >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/> >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,oDADh7IgujvqKdxLZGC9eEQ-5wozeEfLT_VhP95u2_BBHPHRXWJ1_mqlgsjuYKpcO3Sqt6ilmRGLeAu7qrLQhQcXdwJD1QybTBcTt7tVcSvp8gD_lV3bVYOiiw,,&typo=1>- >> .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > <http://bit.ly/virtualfriam> > un/subscribe > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,M3M6TwpBzzmPpiCi0gX07yf68iB1C0CAxUsrqgb0awD9l_wSWpG486LijQfNIwytic-3KcpqJxPff5Jg-bjDKDhK-wJWH8ny8Eo6lIv7qJFfuzIZsh_2-RUVj5_d&typo=1 > > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,M3M6TwpBzzmPpiCi0gX07yf68iB1C0CAxUsrqgb0awD9l_wSWpG486LijQfNIwytic-3KcpqJxPff5Jg-bjDKDhK-wJWH8ny8Eo6lIv7qJFfuzIZsh_2-RUVj5_d&typo=1> > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/> > FRIAM-COMIC > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,mW-yJ2YzILMmiLaRm8lbiMDdr94Mx_3iCJLMI0k9myPAb7LOyIN7btz_mcHmIOdI6sKVZhU46BRwh49F9JwYbo7AZlhLpVrtEUAnuBDqtNgq5WPU&typo=1 > > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,mW-yJ2YzILMmiLaRm8lbiMDdr94Mx_3iCJLMI0k9myPAb7LOyIN7btz_mcHmIOdI6sKVZhU46BRwh49F9JwYbo7AZlhLpVrtEUAnuBDqtNgq5WPU&typo=1>
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