I used to teach a course called "AI and expert systems" for management students at Carnegie Mellon. I remember that Mycin, a diagnosis system for infectious diseases and one of the most famous expert systems, had some explanation capability. According to Wikipedia, "At the end, it [Mycin] provided a list of possible culprit bacteria ranked from high to low based on the probability of each diagnosis, its confidence <https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_interval> in each diagnosis' probability, the reasoning behind each diagnosis..."
But after publishing a few papers in the area I left that field. I assumed, mistakenly it seems, that later AI implementations did the same. Too bad. By the way, I realize, that AI systems can't assess non-respondent bias in the way it was done in Project Talent but perhaps there is some "machine readable" way to do it. --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 9:05 AM David Eric Smith <[email protected]> wrote: > > > On Nov 11, 2020, at 8:54 AM, Frank Wimberly <[email protected]> wrote: > > Don't some AI systems include subsystems for explaining their reasoning? > > > I don’t know how common that is, Frank. The few people I know who are > active and skilled deep-learning practitioners have told me (if I have > understood) that it is rare and limited. I spent some time looking at the > zero-shot language translation, as something I wanted to convene at SFI, > with the AI goal of unpacking what was the “universal language” internal > representation, and with the linguistics goal of using it in cognate > classification and historical reconstruction. Never could get a call-back > from any of the google people. But I didn’t think at the time that > zero-shot had been unpacked. > > Probably some on this list know much more about the state of play. > > Eric > > > Happy Veterans Day, > > Frank > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 3:25 AM David Eric Smith <[email protected]> > wrote: > >> Friam poll: >> >> How soon until classical telephone polling is just gone? >> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html >> >> If, as boasted, facebook knows when their users are pregnant before the >> users know, they know who someone supports and whether that person is >> likely to vote. >> >> At this stage, trying to get accurate statistics from cold calls on the >> phone seems as quixotic as trying to infer something from the people who >> read books. But if there’s anything we can count on, it is that the number >> of people who don’t leave an internet fingerprint is too small to have any >> political impact at all. >> >> How much effort they put into getting reliable calibrations will depend >> on what ways they see to monetize it, but the diversity of cash-outs should >> be nearly inexhaustible, for years to come. >> >> So one more thing goes into what is both a black box and a private rather >> than public box. It will take over after the first few times it produces >> much more reliable results, but since we won’t know what it is based on — >> AIs don’t explain themselves — we will have no ability to extrapolate out >> of sample. >> >> Eric >> >> >> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,MIlehtrxasGxzXCBAG-Wuptie4wVpHZCod2H9fKLPnfs1yGvGgHBDARSwVq4VdCdtzq4Dow-kWiVv4jc9hIVdl8zyYLkXNCJ81WlPwU_cCV-Wj_FaKxE&typo=1> >> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,eEyTIKAnKXKW32Kg5QjvWagEgRoLZi2PtyoqSEHHUN3kS4q1_QFqepVMevdBzSM8Z9F4aZohLrRrIwqCA-ExUAfBhUBVHO7gf4xaB87f6I6MuI4i&typo=1> >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,owZjlS1njud5BssZPtYtW4jYIrQySTobJWmn1LQwCyeJUf-KLCb4RIvTldGJmHVC8OL-2OunE-nqJmBcsyFM7sBJTgDRQlvwtgQpNHs3-mBAwQlugck,&typo=1> >> > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,ZhFECaCEstC6R1KARgPxbu9IEAqI9wjTi65WxBGjDM4gwbxMCgeSOBQ2EKWK35vV6tuhdQlPpQ3q0AmGgUXMwPCscl0M5mPqvGm002E2VyScyzizkyplPu9NMaOH&typo=1 > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,bcNwVv6Xg-iYdul8iBL7SSR37PBueIDjkSji3dd3y4G3o_reGRlxBEs9K8ZfZPNKeOYrtHreLpQMofHuId25yG_iN3xq5W7MgsWxOvjO&typo=1 > > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >
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