One thing that is done is to characterize how important variables are, even though there are often a multiplicity of functions that compose the variables. While a decision tree gives a clear explanation (one composition) for a prediction, it often requires many of them to capture all of the cases. This can arise, say, when there is a population of people that each have their own decision process, e.g. the Trump voters decide one way and the Biden voters decide another way.
-----Original Message----- From: Friam <[email protected]> On Behalf Of Russell Standish Sent: Wednesday, November 11, 2020 12:06 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling? Given that most human explanations are post-hoc rationalisations, I expect that machine learning systems trained to explain the outputs of other systems might work. I believe some people in the ML community are trying this, but it is not all that common yet. It is hard enough to get the black-box predictive models to work as it is. On Wed, Nov 11, 2020 at 11:05:30AM -0500, David Eric Smith wrote: > > > On Nov 11, 2020, at 8:54 AM, Frank Wimberly <[email protected]> wrote: > > Don't some AI systems include subsystems for explaining their reasoning? > > > I don’t know how common that is, Frank. The few people I know who are > active and skilled deep-learning practitioners have told me (if I have > understood) that it is rare and limited. I spent some time looking at > the zero-shot language translation, as something I wanted to convene > at SFI, with the AI goal of unpacking what was the “universal > language” internal representation, and with the linguistics goal of > using it in cognate classification and historical reconstruction. Never > could get a call-back from any of the google people. > But I didn’t think at the time that zero-shot had been unpacked. > > Probably some on this list know much more about the state of play. > > Eric > > > > Happy Veterans Day, > > Frank > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 3:25 AM David Eric Smith <[email protected]> > wrote: > > Friam poll: > > How soon until classical telephone polling is just gone? > > https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html > > If, as boasted, facebook knows when their users are pregnant before > the > users know, they know who someone supports and whether that person is > likely to vote. > > At this stage, trying to get accurate statistics from cold calls on > the > phone seems as quixotic as trying to infer something from the people > who read books. But if there’s anything we can count on, it is that > the number of people who don’t leave an internet fingerprint is too > small to have any political impact at all. > > How much effort they put into getting reliable calibrations will > depend > on what ways they see to monetize it, but the diversity of cash-outs > should be nearly inexhaustible, for years to come. > > So one more thing goes into what is both a black box and a private > rather than public box. It will take over after the first few times > it > produces much more reliable results, but since we won’t know what it > is > based on — AIs don’t explain themselves — we will have no ability to > extrapolate out of sample. > > Eric > > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a= > http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c= > > E,1,ZhFECaCEstC6R1KARgPxbu9IEAqI9wjTi65WxBGjDM4gwbxMCgeSOBQ2EKWK35vV6tuhdQlPpQ3q0AmGgUXMwPCscl0M5mPqvGm002E2VyScyzizkyplPu9NMaOH > &typo=1 > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a= > http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c= > > E,1,bcNwVv6Xg-iYdul8iBL7SSR37PBueIDjkSji3dd3y4G3o_reGRlxBEs9K8ZfZPNKeOYrtHreLpQMofHuId25yG_iN3xq5W7MgsWxOvjO > &typo=1 > > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn > GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe > http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ -- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile) Principal, High Performance Coders [email protected] http://www.hpcoders.com.au ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . 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