Nick, I was bracing myself for you to say "*Yes, it's progress, but at what cost to the environment?*"
I'm not defending the undefendable, human progress came at a huge cost to the environment. On Wed, 5 May 2021 at 17:28, <[email protected]> wrote: > Hi, Pieter, > > > > I am tempted to say: > > > > *“Yes. But what have you done for me, LATELY?” *[Joke} > > > > And > > > > *I have always been suspicious of Pinker; too much HAIR.** [worse joke]* > > > > *And * > > > > *“But where’s the PROGRESS?”** [Even worse joke]* > > > > *And* > > > > *But is it sustainable?** [perhaps not a joke?]* > > > > But I am stalling. Your argument is of the form, “Thompson, bugger your > Jesuitical term splitting. These things are PROGRESS and you damn well > know it.” > > > > I find that argument compelling. > > > > Nick > > > > Nick Thompson > > [email protected] > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > *From:* Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Pieter Steenekamp > *Sent:* Tuesday, May 4, 2021 10:11 PM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > [email protected]> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] The case for universal basic income UBI > > > > I'd like to address a point Nick made earlier: > > > > *Well, the first step would be to make a distinction between "progress" > and "change", with the former being a subset of the latter. Now, the task > is to see if there is any way to define "progress" transculturally. For > me, culture bound as I am, hand and foot, the wordprocessor program was > progress because it made it easier to do the things I love to do, and > facebook was regress because it demanded I do things I did not want to do.* > > > > I'm quoting from https://rootsofprogress.org/enlightenment-now, > discussing Steven Pinker's Enlightenment Now: > > > " the bulk of the book is devoted to an empirical analysis of human > progress along several dimensions—practical, intellectual and > moral—including: > > *Life:* Life expectancy is up, from a world average of less than 30 years > in the mid-18th century to over 70 years today; and the increases are seen > by all age groups and all continents. Child mortality and maternal > mortality in particular have been drastically reduced: “for an American > woman, being pregnant a century ago was almost as dangerous as having > breast cancer today.” > > *Health:* The threat of infectious disease has been greatly reduced via > sanitization, sterilization, vaccination, antibiotics, and other scientific > and medical advances, which together have saved billions of lives. > > *Sustenance:* Hunger and famine were a normal part of life throughout > most of history. Today, people have access to, on average, over 2,500 > calories per day (including an average of 2,400 in India, 2,600 in Africa, > and 3,100 in China). And the extra food isn’t all going to the wealthy; > measures of stunted growth and undernourishment are declining in some of > the world’s poorest regions, and worldwide deaths from famine are also > down. Technology was critical in this achievement: mechanization of > farming, synthetic fertilizer (thanks especially to the Haber-Bosch > process <https://rootsofprogress.org/turning-air-into-bread>), better > crop varieties (thanks to Norman Borlaug and his Green Revolution), and now > genetic engineering. The fall of Communism was also significant, since “of > the seventy million people who died in major 20th-century famines, 80 > percent were victims of Communist regimes’ forced collectivization, > punitive confiscation, and totalitarian central planning.” > > *Wealth:* Gross World Product was stagnant or slowly growing for most of > human history, but it has grown “almost two hundredfold from the start of > the Enlightenment in the 18th century.” And again, the increases are not > only seen in a minority of the world. Western countries pulled away from > the rest first, starting in the 18th century, in what is known as the Great > Escape (from the Malthusian trap > <https://rootsofprogress.org/the-malthusian-trap>). Pinker attributes > this achievement to science; institutions that create open economies by > protecting rule of law, property rights, and enforceable contracts; and a > change in values that conferred “dignity and prestige upon merchants and > inventors rather than just on soldiers, priests, and courtiers.” But the > Great Escape was followed in the 20th century by the Great Convergence, as > poor countries around the world catch up in economic progress and close the > gap. In all, the portion of the world living in “extreme poverty” (using > the definition of $1.90/day in 2011 international dollars) has fallen from > almost 90% in 1820 to 10% today. > > *Safety:* Deaths from virtually all kinds of accidents have drastically > fallen. Deaths from motor vehicle accidents alone are down 24 times since > 1921; pedestrian deaths and plane crashes are also down. Workplaces are > safer. Deaths have decreased from falls, fire, drowning, you name it. Even > natural disasters kill fewer people than they used to, as better technology > and practices make us safer from everything from earthquakes to lightning > strikes. > > *Quality of life:* Work hours have decreased from over 60 hours per week > in both the US and Western Europe in 1870, to around 40 hours today. > Housework has decreased from 58 hours per week in 1900 to 15.5 hours in > 2011, liberating everyone from drudge work, although owing to who > historically has performed housework, this is in practice a great > liberation of women. As a result, people report more hours of leisure, and > more are retiring in old age. Not only our time but our money has been > liberated: spending on necessities in the US is down from over 60% of > disposable income in 1929 to about a third in 2016. And as a result of > economic progress and better technology, people are doing more travel > (including international travel), eating more varied and interesting diets, > and have much greater access to the knowledge of the world. > > *Peace:* In Pinker’s previous book > <https://rootsofprogress.org/the-most-peaceful-time-in-history>, *The > Better Angels of our Nature*, he chronicled the decline of violence and > its causes. War between great powers has not occurred since World War 2, > and the wars that rage today cover less of the world than in the past. > Deaths are down from both battles and genocide. And violent crime has been > reduced as well. He credits these declines to causes including the > advancement of reason and education, the spread of global commerce, and > international forums such as the UN. > > *Democracy:* Democracy is taking over the world (that is, democratic > republics, as opposed to authoritarian regimes). After suffering setbacks > from socialist regimes in the mid-20th century, it is rebounding, with the > defeat of Nazism followed by the fall of Communism. Two-thirds of the > world’s population now lives in “free or relatively free societies”, vs. > one percent in 1816 (according to projects that track this sort of thing, > such as the Polity Project). > > *Equal rights:* Racist, sexist, and anti-homosexual opinions are on the > decline; “emancipative values” (such as freedom, autonomy and > individuality) are growing more popular. Also down: hate crimes, rape / > domestic violence, and child abuse / bullying. > > *Knowledge:* Around the world, children are going to school longer, and > literacy is on the rise. Women are closing the education gap with men, as > more cultures decide to educate their girls. Even IQ scores are increasing > (a phenomenon known as the Flynn Effect), likely as a result of the spread > of education. > > He makes this case with dozens of charts and far more data and analysis > than a summary can do justice to, much of it sourced from Max Roser’s Our > World in Data <https://ourworldindata.org/> and similar projects." > > > > > > > > > > On Wed, 5 May 2021 at 05:42, <[email protected]> wrote: > > Dave, > > > > No you can’t have read it. Otherwise your life would have been completely > transformed because you would have come to belief that sex- and mone- > seeking are pathological distortions of human ambition. > > > > I pretty sure nobody has read it because, so far as I know, nobody has > been thus affected. Ergo, … > > > > Nick > > Nick Thompson > > [email protected] > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > *From:* Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Prof David West > *Sent:* Tuesday, May 4, 2021 8:45 PM > *To:* [email protected] > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] The case for universal basic income UBI > > > > *Diamond Age: Or, A Young Woman's Illustrated Primer* by Neal Stephenson > > > > Required reading for any discussion of economics when the robots produce > abundance, or things are too cheap to meter. > > > > Nick won'ty read, pretty sure Steve and other already have. > > > > davew > > > > > > On Tue, May 4, 2021, at 3:31 PM, Steve Smith wrote: > > > I'm glad I held back from throwing in my own $.002 on this topic > > > earlier... I like the general arc it is on and is being articulated much > > > more gesturally than I think I am capable of. I can't say I *fully* > > > follow Glen's use of reduction and reconstruction in technical detail > > > well, but it suggests an abstraction that rings hopeful if not > > > (necessarily) true for me. > > > > > > Given that my trite belief that "when the road hazards are coming at us > > > faster than we can see much less avoid, that we should pump the brakes > > > and downshift" is based in an inapt (inept?) metaphor, and that in any > > > case we aren't going to do a whole lot of self-limiting under the > > > current aesthetic we (mostly) share (pedal to the metal and let 'er > > > roar!). > > > > > > The Prepper/Survivalist community is mostly about trying to gather up > > > the resources they think will help them survive a crash or more > > > importantly the aftermath. The post/transhumanists seem to be trying > > > to figure out how to strapon (or grow out of their own bodies') wings > > > and jet packs and road armor to escape or survive the inevitable crash. > > > > > > Careening vehicle metaphors aside, I'm pleased to hear more and more > > > discussion that frames the economic aspect of "the culture war" as > > > *post* rather than *anti* capitalism. Whether technology makes > > > *everything* too cheap to meter or not, I think the relative abundance > > > of manufactured goods as well as commodities for the top 50% of the > > > first world is confronting the *scarcity* model that was (maybe?) > > > necessary to keep the engine (oops, vehicles made it back in) of > > > consumerist markets accelerating. > > > > > > I am not sure that Yang has all (or even many) of the answers but I do > > > give him great credit for having promoted the question on the national > > > (and world?) stage with his run for President. I had thought about UBI > > > and similar mechanisms before but somehow his presentation or affect or > > > maybe just timing brought it to me in a much more compelling way than > > > before. > > > > > > I very much appreciate Glen's point about UBI being an intrinsically > > > capitalist proposal to try to keep their system going as long as > > > possible, I just hope we will use whatever time that buys us without > > > significant disruption to plan out what things might/could look like on > > > the other side of a revolution in (socioeconomic?) thinking that now > > > seem inevitable to me. When I used to ski (poorly), on any given run, > > > there was likely a brief period of time when I realized I as absolutely > > > going to crash and burn, and if I had any choice in the matter it was > > > whether I was going to do it earlier rather than later and whether I was > > > going to take a big bite of ice-slicked mogul, some off-run powder, or > > > maybe a tree. Maybe I'll just leap off a mogul and evaporate in the > > > sunlight mid-air (Kurzweil's Singularity)? > > > > > > - Steve > > > > > > On 5/4/21 12:52 PM, uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ wrote: > > > > Reduction. All things in moderation, including moderation. Reduction > is a triumph, if it captures what you're looking for. And fiat currency has > done great things for the world, a cultural technology that allows us to > explore possibilities we wouldn't have otherwise explored. Financial > instruments have allowed us to spread ownership across demographics that > would never have been allowed based on real property. > > > > > > > > But those instruments are a reconstruction of the space that currency > reduced out. And I think we're seeing that the reconstruction is trending > dysfunctional. So, it's time to reconsider the initial reduction and, > importantly, why the reconstruction isn't a cover for the original (full) > space. > > > > > > > > We are doing that in both ad-hoc ways (e.g. the Psychology today > article, finding other dimensions by which to bolster the reduction) and > fundamental ways (e.g. transhumanist experimentation of "what are we"). UBI > is a reasonable suggestion to reduce suffering. But, ultimately, it's a > capitalist suggestion, proposed by *conservatives* who want to prolong the > status quo, to milk the current system for as long as they can. That's OK, > of course. We try to balance exploitation with exploration and nobody knows > crisply when to emphasize which. > > > > > > > > > > > > On 5/4/21 11:16 AM, [email protected] wrote: > > > >> Ah, now THIS is the Glen I know and love. Your 10:00 post rekindled > old rage concerning the incentive-value of money. Here I go. Up on my > high horse. Hi, Ho, Silver. Budda bump, budda bump, budda bump, bump, bump. > > > >> > > > >> The very little Marxism I know tells me that it is the "triumph" of > capitalism to reduce all relationships to money. This seems right to rich > people because the richer you get, the truer it becomes. I can imagine > Besos, Gates, and Musk falling asleep at night, musing about which of them > will first reach a trillion. If you've lost your soul and you've lost your > wife, what else could they possibly want. Such people even turn women into > a kind of coinage. (Cue Waspish Moral Outrage). But isn't that the point > of UBI; that it frees people to think about something else? And yes, what > IS this so-called "productivity"? The "happy ditch digger" and the > "carefree slave" are all part of the same self-serving capitalist > iconography. I am sure there are people who love to dig ditches, but if > that's what they love to do, give them a thousand dollars a month for free > and let them dig ditches for Habitat for Humanity in Peru, if that's what > they feel like doing. > > > >> > > > >> Glen, keeping your ad hominem firmly in mind, I am again going to use > your post as opportunity to flog my old work which argues that it is > capitalism's reduction of all ambition to coinage that makes it so toxic. > > > > > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > > > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > > > > > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >
- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
