List -
BTW, I offered the paper on the "Latin American Growth Paradox" because
it gave a fair thumbnail sketch of what I was referring to as "the
Golden Age of Latin America" and upon reading it in more depth (beyond
the abstract/introduction/conclusion) I find it more detailed
mathematically (statistically) than I choose to dive into, so I can't
fully support or question it's rigor. Some here probably can do that
with a fairly simple scan of the methods and results. It was not
unexpected, but the "things we can measure", and most appropriately in
an "economics" paper tend toward widely measured economic variables
(e.g. GDP) but does give a nod to "polity" and "religion".
I don't know how close these two variables (as explored here, or in our
imaginations) qualify for the ongoing discussions with EricC on
categorical variables under the subject "Idendifying 'types' within
data", but it appears this paper punted on that by sticking to things
which are directly/obviously quantifiable (percent population Roman
Catholic) or developed specifically (polity score) to support
quantitative analysis: http://www.systemicpeace.org/polityproject.html
The Polity Project linked above introduced me to a term I was unfamiliar
with which I found fascinating, at least on the surface:
Anocracy: mixed, or incoherent, authority regimes
and from Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anocracy#Human_rights
</BTW, for those to whom it is not obvious, the image I "linked"
below is not included in the mail, but rather linked back to
Wikipedia's image database and downloaded/rendered by (most)
mailtools on demand... I do wish it were more common in our
threads for folks to include (relevant) graphics that help to
orient/illustrate the topic at hand.../>
I was *expecting* Russia to show as a "closed anocracy", and more of
Latin America as "open anocracies" but that probably just demonstrates
how unfamiliar I am with the term... maybe "defective Democracy" fits
better?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defective_democracy#Types_of_defective_democracies
On 1/13/23 10:32 AM, Steve Smith wrote:
Gary -
Thanks for the on-the-ground response from the "middle of the world".
I realize(d) you (like all of us) live in a bubble and I appreciate
your acknowledging the two impinging bubbles you recognize yourself to
be circumscribed by: 1) retired folk who avoid deep political
thought; 2) locals without the education or experience to see much
beyond the local community.
In some ways this feels like a template for many of our own
bubbles... sort of a 1) personal/professional/socioeconomic bubble;
2) geolocal bubble . There are probably more and they may or may not
overlap significantly. I use FriAM to try to force some of my own
bubbles to impinge on one another, or perhaps to explore the
interstices between the otherwise natural impingements...
I'm not a regular (only dropped in once or twice) vFriam participant,
and I don't know about Merle, I think she may make a better effort
than I and could probably be drawn into making an appearance for a
topic *like* this if you were interested. I'll ping her offline as
well to see if she might be interested/available to vFriAM up on this
(or some vaguely related) topic next week?
- Steve
Regarding "the Golden Age of Latin America", I found this (working)
paper which moderately reflects what I think of as "the Golden Age".
I think they acknowledge (and maybe even explain) what you have
experienced/observed/believe about "keeping Latin America dirt poor":
On the Latin American Growth Paradox: A Hindsight into the Golden Age
Giorgia Barboni∗and Tania Treibich† November 12, 2010
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/89360/1/64049434X.pdf
/In 1950, Latin American countries’ capabilities were promising:
however, some other countries starting at the same level, or even
below, made a better use of their initial endowments. At the time,
countries like Argentina and Venezuela had a higher GDP per capita
than other European countries belonging to the developed world
today (Italy, Spain...) and many East Asian countries that have
managed to catch up with the Western World in the last decades
(see Figure 1 below). Indeed, the data on GDP per capita over the
last 60 years reveals that since 1950, Latin American countries
have diverged from the Western World. With a GDP growth rate
between 4 and 5 percent, they have fallen behind Europe which
economy has reached a 20,000 dollars per capita level today. The
Latin American countries grew slowly until 1980 and, from then,
their GDP per capita growth has been stationary. The only
exception would be Chile which after a period of slow growth
started an expansion period in 1980s, converging to the highest
levels. Asian countries in comparison followed a convergence path,
starting way lower and reaching the European levels of GDP per
capita after fifty years of catching up. Castaldi et al.
(2008(16)) point out that this divergence can also be measured by
the widening productivity gap between Latin America and the
international frontier in the last decades. Other indicators of
education and science may also support the hypothesis that back
then, Latin American countries had a big potential for
convergence. Argentina, for example, was thought to be so
promising that it could join the innovators’ club (Castaldi et
al., 2008(16)). Then, what happened during the Golden Age
(1950-1975) that prevented South American countries to exploit
this potential for growth?/
Which is naturally just one perspective, but provides the basic idea
of what said "Golden Age" was/is/might-be.
On 1/13/23 9:33 AM, Gary Schiltz wrote:
Despite living here in the middle of the world, I'm afraid I don't
give these ideas enogh serious thought these days. I interact mostly
with people who are retired and avoid deep political thought, and with
locals who don't have the education or experience to see much beyond
the local community. I REALLY MUST make myself make it a priority to
start attending the VFriam meetings on Thursday. It might be valuable.
I wonder, does Merle ever tune in? She seems the most socially
concerned (maybe even hopeful?) person on the list.
By the way, I wasn't aware that there ever was a "Golden Age of Latin
America". Care to elaborate? My view (shaped perhaps too much by
reading "Confessions of an Economic Hitman" in the early 2000s) is
that Latin America has always been dirt poor, just like the more
developed world wants it to be. First under the thumb of the USA and
USSR/Russia, and now China. No wonder dictators thrive here.
On Thu, Jan 12, 2023 at 1:31 PM Steve Smith<[email protected]> wrote:
GaryS, et al -
I was recently trying to make a little more sense of the larger sociopolitical
situation across central/south America and realized that your location in
Ecuador might provide some useful parallax.
https://www.as-coa.org/articles/2023-elections-latin-america-preview
I was (not?) surprised to read that there was a renewed interest in "regional
integration". This article references Lula and Obrador and several other Latin
American leaders who might be attempting a broader ideological (and economic)
alignment/cooperation across the region.
https://www.bloomberglinea.com/english/will-lula-achieve-regional-integration-in-latin-america/
With the unrest of the summer triggered? by energy/fossil-fuel prices it seems
like Ecuador has become (temporarily, modestly) unbalanced which seems like an
opportunity for change, whether for better or worse. I see in the first
article (Elections Preview) that Lasso has a very low approval rating and the
upcoming (February) elections might include/yield a recall for him?
I lived on the border of AZ/MX as a teen in the early 70s and the recent
memory/residue of the Golden Age of Latin America was still evident. The
Mexican border town (Agua Prieta) still had moderately grand facilities and
institutions (e.g. A huge library with elaborate fountains on the grounds,
etc) even though they were not able to support them in that grandeur... So I
think I still have an ideation that Latin America has many of the resources or
(hidden) momentum to achieve a resurgence of some sort.
These reflections are partly triggered by this interview/article produced by
WBUR/Boston and distributed via NPR:
https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2023/01/11/8-billion-earth-population-rise-human
Which reminded me that while we *do* have a total-population problem with our
8B and rising numbers (and 90+ % of land animal by mass being human or human
domesticates), the *distribution* of people, and more to the point the
demographic fecundity/fertility distribution is very uneven and in fact seems
to be inversely proportional to various features of human civilization ranging
from GDP to education to technological development. Some (like DJT) turn
this into a judgement and a reason for resentment/fear (e.g. S*hole country
labels) but others have a more progressive view. An excerpt from the WBUR
interview/article:
Jennifer Sciubba: "We're moving toward this aging and shrinking world, and we
are worried because we can't sustain that same huge level of economic growth in the
past. And we do need to think about what that might look like, so we can look relook
at concepts like retirement. We can look at concepts like what is work life. We
also, though, have to start thinking about family and marriage. And, you know, we're
talking about a paradigmatic shift.
"That means we have to look at the world through a completely different lens than
we've looked at the world in the past. But all of our theories about the good life, our
economic theories, our political theories, those were all developed under conditions of
population growth and economic growth, as William said. So it's really hard to get a
paradigmatic shift and say, what if we try to look at the world in a different way? Can
we look at an aging and shrinking society as a good thing? Can we look at growing older
individually as a good thing? We've not been good at that. And so we're kind of taking
that negativity and applying it at the societal level."
This passage specifically references aging (individual and population) but
there are other references to economic/technological disparities.
I also defer here to others who have an international POV (e.g. Pieter in South
Africa, Sarbajit in India, Jochen in Germany, and I believe we have someone
from Cuba, I think we lost (off the list) Mohammed from Egypt a few years ago,
etc.) as well. We are not a very demographicly representative group here but
still offer a somewhat broad samplying by some measures.
I realize this is yet another of my rambly maunderings but I'd be curious to
hear what others are observing/thinking about these issues in this current time
of global flux.
- Steve
-. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p
Zoomhttps://bit.ly/virtualfriam
to (un)subscribehttp://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIChttp://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
archives: 5/2017 thru presenthttps://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/
1/2003 thru 6/2021http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
-. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p
Zoomhttps://bit.ly/virtualfriam
to (un)subscribehttp://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIChttp://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
archives: 5/2017 thru presenthttps://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/
1/2003 thru 6/2021http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
-. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p
Zoomhttps://bit.ly/virtualfriam
to (un)subscribehttp://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIChttp://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
archives: 5/2017 thru presenthttps://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/
1/2003 thru 6/2021http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
-. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom
https://bit.ly/virtualfriam
to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
archives: 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/
1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
