Unless I missed it Mexico wasn't mentioned. I've been there multiple times and I cultivated friendships with university students and young employees in the early 90s. Although I initially contacted these people via internet Debby and I eventually met a number of them and their families during our trips there. Two of them came to Pittsburgh to work or study at Carnegie Mellon. These interactions led to our adopting a Mexican child.
An observation: most of those people have 5 or 6 siblings but only 2 or 3 children. With a couple of exceptions they are substantially more educated than their parents. Perhaps a new Golden Age is looming, at least for Mexico. The narcotraficantes aren't helping. --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Fri, Jan 13, 2023, 2:49 PM Steve Smith <[email protected]> wrote: > Ed - > > Thanks for weighing in from your current SA location. While I > specifically called out the distribution of places that our members *live*, > I failed to think (much) about how widely traveled (currently and over a > career) many of our members are. I did not know you had so much > experience with South America. > > When my sister and young family moved to Santiago Chile (just as Pinochet > was finally deposed) I became aware of the *deep history* of Santiago in > particular the early Spanish colonization (founded well before Santa Fe, > for example)... and the strong role in European colonization around the > world, with Santiago (founded mid 1500s) as a powerful precursor to what we > in the US think of as San Francisco (founded late 1700s) being. > > Unfortunately, their grasp of *contemporary* politics was colored by the > fact that her husband worked for a major Copper Mining company and his > peers in Chile were all pretty much apologists for Pinochet since they had > "grown up" under his version of neoliberalism influenced by the "Chicago > Boys" and (covertly?) backed by the US (e.g. operation Condor). Before all > of this, most of what I knew about the politics of South America came from > an outdated/lame public-high-school world history class taught by a > football coach, and the reactive populist left-wing movement who was > (trying to) calling out the CIA, etc. which I mostly dismissed as > kneejerk-liberal-hysteria. History strongly suggests otherwise (to the > hysteria). > > I do agree that references to "Golden Ages" such as the paper I linked are > part of a larger *post-colonial* golden-age period throughout the part of > the world that (at that time) was recently freed from *overt political > euro-american dominance* but was on the rise of multinational corporations > (such as the one my brother-in-law worked for). > > I appreciated your categorization of the southern Big-three, the Andean > and the Central American. The main things they would seem to have in > common was the initial Spanish Colonization and the more modern > manipulation by the USA, it's allies and enemies (USSR) for political and > corporate gain. > > The main thing I'm interested in *myself* is the question of "what is > next" for the world-at-large, but in particular the huge population tail > represented by the "developing world"... What challenges (and more to the > point, opportunities) do these huge regions of the world represent (beyond > the semi-infinite source of natural resources they have been to the US, > Europe, and China)? > > - Steve > On 1/13/23 4:01 PM, Ed Angel wrote: > > Gary, you may remember that I lived in Quito not far from where I think > you are while on sabbatical; half in Ecuador and half in Venezuela. I’ve > also spent time in most South American and half of Central American > countries. This email chain reached me in Argentina. > > It strikes me as silly to refer to a "Latin American" Golden Age or any > other term. > > The southern big three (Argentina, Brazil, Chile) are completely different > historically and culturally from the Andean countries (Ecuador, Peru, > Columbia, Venezuela) and both are very differemt from most of Central > America (Guatemala, Panama, Honduras, Nicaragua). > > What I suspect the reference is about is the period before and after WW 2 > when the southern three were doing quite well. The Europeans had eliminated > almost all the native population and all had large numbers of European > immigrants about the same as the U.S. Because they were not participants in > WW2 they not only escaped the destruction in Europe but were able to profit > from exports such the beef from Argentina and various natural resources. > > Ed > ____________ > > Ed Angel > > Founding Director, Art, Research, Technology and Science Laboratory (ARTS > Lab) > Professor Emeritus of Computer Science, University of New Mexico > > 1017 Sierra Pinon > Santa Fe, NM 87501 > 505-984-0136 (home) [email protected] > 505-453-4944 (cell) http://www.cs.unm.edu/~angel > > > > > On Jan 13, 2023, at 11:09 AM, Gary Schiltz <[email protected]> > wrote: > > Steve, thanks for the perspective. It's interesting that the authors > of the paper dub the period of 1950-1975 as the "Golden Age" and then > go on to point out how badly Latin America has failed to exploit it. I > haven't read the paper yet (only your quote from it), but it seems > they are defining a golden age globally, not for Latin America. I > guess that would be the post-WWII era. > > I'll try to break out of these darned bubbles :-) > > On Fri, Jan 13, 2023 at 12:33 PM Steve Smith <[email protected]> wrote: > > > Gary - > > Thanks for the on-the-ground response from the "middle of the world". I > realize(d) you (like all of us) live in a bubble and I appreciate your > acknowledging the two impinging bubbles you recognize yourself to be > circumscribed by: 1) retired folk who avoid deep political thought; 2) > locals without the education or experience to see much beyond the local > community. > > In some ways this feels like a template for many of our own bubbles... > sort of a 1) personal/professional/socioeconomic bubble; 2) geolocal > bubble . There are probably more and they may or may not overlap > significantly. I use FriAM to try to force some of my own bubbles to > impinge on one another, or perhaps to explore the interstices between the > otherwise natural impingements... > > I'm not a regular (only dropped in once or twice) vFriam participant, and > I don't know about Merle, I think she may make a better effort than I and > could probably be drawn into making an appearance for a topic *like* this > if you were interested. I'll ping her offline as well to see if she might > be interested/available to vFriAM up on this (or some vaguely related) > topic next week? > > - Steve > > Regarding "the Golden Age of Latin America", I found this (working) paper > which moderately reflects what I think of as "the Golden Age". I think > they acknowledge (and maybe even explain) what you have > experienced/observed/believe about "keeping Latin America dirt poor": > > On the Latin American Growth Paradox: A Hindsight into the Golden Age > Giorgia Barboni∗and Tania Treibich† November 12, 2010 > https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/89360/1/64049434X.pdf > > > In 1950, Latin American countries’ capabilities were promising: however, > some other countries starting at the same level, or even below, made a > better use of their initial endowments. At the time, countries like > Argentina and Venezuela had a higher GDP per capita than other European > countries belonging to the developed world today (Italy, Spain...) and many > East Asian countries that have managed to catch up with the Western World > in the last decades (see Figure 1 below). Indeed, the data on GDP per > capita over the last 60 years reveals that since 1950, Latin American > countries have diverged from the Western World. With a GDP growth rate > between 4 and 5 percent, they have fallen behind Europe which economy has > reached a 20,000 dollars per capita level today. The Latin American > countries grew slowly until 1980 and, from then, their GDP per capita > growth has been stationary. The only exception would be Chile which after a > period of slow growth started an expansion period in 1980s, converging to > the highest levels. Asian countries in comparison followed a convergence > path, starting way lower and reaching the European levels of GDP per capita > after fifty years of catching up. Castaldi et al. (2008(16)) point out that > this divergence can also be measured by the widening productivity gap > between Latin America and the international frontier in the last decades. > Other indicators of education and science may also support the hypothesis > that back then, Latin American countries had a big potential for > convergence. Argentina, for example, was thought to be so promising that it > could join the innovators’ club (Castaldi et al., 2008(16)). Then, what > happened during the Golden Age (1950-1975) that prevented South American > countries to exploit this potential for growth? > > Which is naturally just one perspective, but provides the basic idea of > what said "Golden Age" was/is/might-be. > > > On 1/13/23 9:33 AM, Gary Schiltz wrote: > > Despite living here in the middle of the world, I'm afraid I don't > give these ideas enogh serious thought these days. I interact mostly > with people who are retired and avoid deep political thought, and with > locals who don't have the education or experience to see much beyond > the local community. I REALLY MUST make myself make it a priority to > start attending the VFriam meetings on Thursday. It might be valuable. > I wonder, does Merle ever tune in? She seems the most socially > concerned (maybe even hopeful?) person on the list. > > By the way, I wasn't aware that there ever was a "Golden Age of Latin > America". Care to elaborate? My view (shaped perhaps too much by > reading "Confessions of an Economic Hitman" in the early 2000s) is > that Latin America has always been dirt poor, just like the more > developed world wants it to be. First under the thumb of the USA and > USSR/Russia, and now China. No wonder dictators thrive here. > > On Thu, Jan 12, 2023 at 1:31 PM Steve Smith <[email protected]> > <[email protected]> wrote: > > GaryS, et al - > > I was recently trying to make a little more sense of the larger > sociopolitical situation across central/south America and realized that > your location in Ecuador might provide some useful parallax. > > https://www.as-coa.org/articles/2023-elections-latin-america-preview > > I was (not?) surprised to read that there was a renewed interest in > "regional integration". This article references Lula and Obrador and > several other Latin American leaders who might be attempting a broader > ideological (and economic) alignment/cooperation across the region. > > > https://www.bloomberglinea.com/english/will-lula-achieve-regional-integration-in-latin-america/ > > With the unrest of the summer triggered? by energy/fossil-fuel prices it > seems like Ecuador has become (temporarily, modestly) unbalanced which > seems like an opportunity for change, whether for better or worse. I see > in the first article (Elections Preview) that Lasso has a very low approval > rating and the upcoming (February) elections might include/yield a recall > for him? > > > I lived on the border of AZ/MX as a teen in the early 70s and the recent > memory/residue of the Golden Age of Latin America was still evident. The > Mexican border town (Agua Prieta) still had moderately grand facilities and > institutions (e.g. A huge library with elaborate fountains on the grounds, > etc) even though they were not able to support them in that grandeur... > So I think I still have an ideation that Latin America has many of the > resources or (hidden) momentum to achieve a resurgence of some sort. > > These reflections are partly triggered by this interview/article produced > by WBUR/Boston and distributed via NPR: > > > https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2023/01/11/8-billion-earth-population-rise-human > > Which reminded me that while we *do* have a total-population problem with > our 8B and rising numbers (and 90+ % of land animal by mass being human or > human domesticates), the *distribution* of people, and more to the point > the demographic fecundity/fertility distribution is very uneven and in fact > seems to be inversely proportional to various features of human > civilization ranging from GDP to education to technological development. > Some (like DJT) turn this into a judgement and a reason for > resentment/fear (e.g. S*hole country labels) but others have a more > progressive view. An excerpt from the WBUR interview/article: > > Jennifer Sciubba: "We're moving toward this aging and shrinking world, and > we are worried because we can't sustain that same huge level of economic > growth in the past. And we do need to think about what that might look > like, so we can look relook at concepts like retirement. We can look at > concepts like what is work life. We also, though, have to start thinking > about family and marriage. And, you know, we're talking about a > paradigmatic shift. > > "That means we have to look at the world through a completely different > lens than we've looked at the world in the past. But all of our theories > about the good life, our economic theories, our political theories, those > were all developed under conditions of population growth and economic > growth, as William said. So it's really hard to get a paradigmatic shift > and say, what if we try to look at the world in a different way? Can we > look at an aging and shrinking society as a good thing? Can we look at > growing older individually as a good thing? We've not been good at that. > And so we're kind of taking that negativity and applying it at the societal > level." > > This passage specifically references aging (individual and population) but > there are other references to economic/technological disparities. > > I also defer here to others who have an international POV (e.g. Pieter in > South Africa, Sarbajit in India, Jochen in Germany, and I believe we have > someone from Cuba, I think we lost (off the list) Mohammed from Egypt a few > years ago, etc.) as well. We are not a very demographicly representative > group here but still offer a somewhat broad samplying by some measures. > > I realize this is yet another of my rambly maunderings but I'd be curious > to hear what others are observing/thinking about these issues in this > current time of global flux. > > - Steve > > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > > > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >
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