Thanks Nick,

I will have to read your longer-form work.  Your use of all this is so far from 
my own, and so far from any literature and user community that I work with or 
in, that I don’t even know what you mean different words to be doing in your 
sentences, and thus what you believe yourself to be asserting.  (If I could 
track that much, I could then come back to whether I think the assertions “go 
through”, or under what analysis one would make such a judgment.) 

Clearly this is going to be a matter of just blanking my mind (giant 
magnetostimulation of the brain) and submerging in your writing for a while, to 
try to “get a feel” for your language usage.  Then come back to these short 
forms and see if I can follow them any better.

Eric



> On Apr 6, 2026, at 7:42, Nicholas Thompson <[email protected]> wrote:
> 
> DES -- One urgent point.  I asked George to look at our correspondence to see 
> what I was missing.  He caught one thing immediately "Fitness causes 
> selection, selection causes fitness" is not necessarily a tautology nor do i 
> think of it as such.  Its a virtuous circle, or "spiral" so long as  
> selection and fitness can be independently known.  
> 
> I apologise for wiring text that was open to that misinterpretation. 
> 
> N
> 
> On Sun, Apr 5, 2026 at 5:39 AM Santafe <[email protected] 
> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
>> Hi Nick,
>> 
>> I’m kind of relieved that I posted “I promise I really will shut up” on Apr 
>> 1, before Gil’s brief blast of exasperation, which I kind of get.  I think I 
>> should keep my word, as much as possible without being obnoxious.  
>> 
>> At the same time, thank you for taking the time to reply, including what I 
>> actually wrote, and responding to it in-frame. 
>> 
>> Your two papers are attached to the later email, too, so we have them.  I 
>> will read if and as I am able.  The abstracts sound like they make a much 
>> more normal reference to the routine work that people actually do, than many 
>> of the post-string here have (to me); so that is hopeful. 
>> 
>> I tried a couple of times to come up with some kind of reply, and decided it 
>> is hopeless.  There is a perfectly good language to address the problem 
>> that, after we have identified and characterized traits, and observed that 
>> sometimes they change frequencies in populations, we don’t generally know at 
>> the outset whether there is something about the traits’ functions in 
>> organisms’ lives (in their population contexts) that is eligible to be a 
>> “cause” of that change in frequency.  We would like to know, for which 
>> traits in what settings, variations in trait parameters result in variations 
>> in function performance that (through the vast noise of everything else that 
>> is going on too) poke through to result in changes in trait frequency.  
>> There are no tautologies in the statistical reduction that defines different 
>> components of change (among which one is fitness, though its definition is 
>> partly by convention), and there are no other problems than the ordinary 
>> problems of functional characterization and statistical analysis in figuring 
>> out which variations in trait parameters and functions correlate with 
>> changes in trait frequency robustly enough to be candidates for cause of the 
>> change in frequency.  It’s all so terribly ordinary and understandable.
>> 
>> Meanwhile, you have a program: to assert that there are some tautologies and 
>> some ambiguities etc.  Therefore I understand that, since we can observe a 
>> field of people who get from problem statements to answers, by completely 
>> ordinary and conventional steps with standard methods, without tautologies, 
>> whatever those people are doing is simply irrelevant to your program.
>> 
>> I will admit, so that it doesn’t just seem irritating, that at a half-dozen 
>> points below, I am sure that you are just throwing up verbal chaff and 
>> playing word games to try to make something that is actually completely 
>> ordinary and orderly “look” all mangled and messed up.  But it doesn’t look 
>> that way to me.  At every one of these, I trip over some string of words 
>> that looks like complete nonsense, which doesn’t make the idea we were on 
>> “look” like anything; it just veers away from the track of that idea to put 
>> a word game in its place.  (An example: "success causes fitness, and that 
>> fitness causes success")  It was after trying to call out two or three of 
>> these that I realized i need to just give up.  I suspect you could follow an 
>> ordinary mathematical argument about as well as the next guy, and you just 
>> don’t want to.  Thus anything I try to reply will just yield another round 
>> with the same form as this one.  I will add to irritating the list, which is 
>> what I wanted to cut away from doing earlier.  
>> 
>> I appreciated your introduction of placeholders, and of course I am quite 
>> open to that kind of thing.  Not so open to the Chalmers kind, which is 
>> defined as having _no_ added content from what our ordinary, understandable 
>> language, is already doing.  I don’t know why you think you see a 
>> non-Chalmers-like placeholder here; but okay.
>> 
>> So, is it the English who say: Please Proceed.
>> 
>> I do hope you will be able to push through to the book you were writing.  We 
>> accumulate all these unfinished efforts, and it is a shame if they can’t get 
>> to some safe harbor in some output. 
>> 
>> Eric
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>>> On Apr 4, 2026, at 14:23, Nicholas Thompson <[email protected] 
>>> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
>>> 
>>>> DES  -- I hate to drag you back into our den and maul you some more but 
>>>> your last post was fascinating to me and so akin to difficulties we have 
>>>> had with Elliott Sober and difficulties I have had understanding entropy 
>>>> (ugh) that I want to pursue them with you further  
>>> 
>>> 
>>> --for me, “fitness” is a name given to (something like) the units (or 
>>> dimension) in which reproductive success is measured, or quantified.  Not 
>>> sure “units” is quite the right term, but the point is that it’s about 
>>> defining a quantification program for observed outcomes, or the model 
>>> variables that we try to fit to them.  I had taken the state of modern work 
>>> to show that this is the only actual meaning the term was ever given.
>>>  
>>> I am happy to have a variable with a name to represent that dimension.  I 
>>> just think "fitness" is an appalling name for it.  Call it selectedness.  
>>> Call it success.  Just don't call it fitness or adaptedness or anything 
>>> that might confuse a reader into thinking that you have any information 
>>> about the morphological or behavioral synchrony of the organism with its 
>>> environment.  The essence of D's theory is that success causes fitness, and 
>>> that fitness causes success.  If one calls oneself a Darwinist it must be 
>>> because those connections between the two ideas are empirical, not logical. 
>>> 
>>>  — are you two claiming otherwise; that my supposition is not at all the 
>>> case?  That there are biologists for whom there is some other meaning, 
>>> instead of or in addition to the one I gave above, about being a 
>>> measurement unit? 
>>> 
>>> Indeed, we are
>>> 
>>> Something like: “fitness” is a name for “the cause of reproductive 
>>> success”.  As if to say: Well, there’s this thing with the form of a name, 
>>> so there must be something it names, that is a kind of causal force 
>>> responsible for generating what we witness as reproductive success.  And 
>>> since there is one name, there must be some one kind of causal force it 
>>> names.
>>> 
>>> Well, if we do believe that the relative success of every genetic type of 
>>> organism is systematic then it has a cause.  Now I suppose that it's 
>>> possible that each instance of success has a different cause, in which we 
>>> would have reduced Darwin's theory to, "whatever causes an animal's sucess 
>>> causes its success".  But I think even FW would rate that a tautology.  To 
>>> escape that bind, we have to find some class of relations that leads to 
>>> success which is other than the class that leads to failure.  And to be a 
>>> proper Darwinian you have to at least be able to entertain the possibility 
>>> that selection would produce something other than fitness and vice versa.  
>>> 
>>> — to me, an interpretation like that is so bizarre, it would never have 
>>> occurred to me to that there is anyone making it.  
>>> 
>>> Well, here we are. We stand before you.  I have been making such a claim in 
>>> print for 56 years, so either I have managed to pull the wool over many 
>>> editors' and reviewr's eyes, or it has some resonance somewhere among 
>>> biologists. I hope calling it "bizarre" isn't the first step toward putting 
>>> your fingers in your ears and shrieking.
>>> 
>>> .  
>>> It seems very similar to taking an expression like “elan vital”, and saying 
>>> that, since it has the shape of a name, there must be something it names.  
>>> 
>>> Well, exactly!  The example I like to use is the "dormitive virtue"..Years 
>>> ago, before the dinosaurs, Lipton and I wrote a paper in which we talked 
>>> about such expressions that purport to be explanatory but which include a 
>>> reference to the explanandum within the explanans as "recursive".  (eg. 
>>> life is caused by the Life Force) The dormitive virtue was a place-holder 
>>> for what came to be known as the very specific chemical properties of 
>>> morphine.  The Moliere play makes fun of people who imagine that the 
>>> assignment of a placeholder has solved the problem.   We thought of these 
>>> place holders as serving to keep the goal in sight while scientists looked 
>>> for it.  Science consists a lot in filling in or dividing up these place 
>>> holders.  The progress in the identification of the AIDS virus is a 
>>> wonderful example. See, if tempted, Comparative Psychology and the 
>>> recursive nature of filter explanations 
>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fcommons.clarku.edu%2ffacultyworks%2f66%2f&c=E,1,k4G28ruXzTMikjk22fWt55DQZBrY8oTBaFPZetykCEmKkrdW7Zgm_InoVrTc91PCgHYC1XjdS7pzs2zz_HaX2PnsGuZtad3L3YiDf1g2E2bBiY5y9m0Lp_g,&typo=1>
>>> 
>>> To me, those are strings of words that satisfy rules of syntax and that 
>>> don’t have any semantic referents at all.  They may as well be Chomsky’s 
>>> “colorless green dreams” or something.  I would not have imagined that 
>>> there was anything anyone expected, beyond the working out of the mechanics 
>>> of lots of cases of how-lifecycles-play-out-in-contexts, which can fill out 
>>> some vast taxonomy that has no singular “essence” underneath it.  That 
>>> could well be my lack of empathy for how many other people think, like my 
>>> lack of empathy for their thoughts about God (along with my ignorance about 
>>> who is in the world).  
>>> 
>>> Indeed.  That would explain a lot. Please understand that I am a lifelong 
>>> unbeliever.  I am not even an atheist.  My family had no interest in 
>>> religion whatsoever.  You might call me a religious Ignoramist.  I have 
>>> never been cuffed on the ears by nuns.  
>>> 
>>> — I guess, since there are people who continue to talk about Strong 
>>> Emergence, and Philosophical Zombies, and who sound to me much like people 
>>> who talk about God today, and maybe like people who would have talked about 
>>> Elan Vital some generations ago, I should have right away imagined this 
>>> reading of what you were writing.
>>> 
>>> Again, that explains a lot of our difficulties.  But I beg to suggest that 
>>> there is a more generous reading. 
>>> 
>>> the above is what you were claiming, it would explain why my long Emily 
>>> Litella-like replies seemed like a tiresome recital of what population 
>>> geneticists already do (Nick’s point that “all that would be left is 
>>> EricS’s 2a and 2b”), which everybody already knows anyway, and which isn’t 
>>> interesting and wasn’t to your point. So, were you claiming that there are 
>>> biologists operating that way? And are there really biologists operating 
>>> that way?y 
>>> 
>>> Indeed there are.  They are called comparative biologists, comparative 
>>> anatomists,comparative ethologists, comparative physiologists, anybody who 
>>> studies the form of classes of organisms in relation to their 
>>> circumstances.  Natural design didn't get eliminated by Darwinism; it got 
>>> partially, and incompletely and in some cases wrongly explained by it.  
>>> Some effort needs to be expended in finding out the degree to which natural 
>>> design actually accounts for natural selection and vice versa.  Please see 
>>> Toward a Falsifiable Theory of Evolution 
>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fcommons.clarku.edu%2ffacultyworks%2f67%2f&c=E,1,uEqHnsI2N6agATrwVIuvnLowDECLxZG4KT5Za_GJiyC2lUxcNNve9iY0ZctgPVn2cXHp3MIF_4h0exfyKRO9KdPS6nCz0uerbqjb5nNIWBw,&typo=1>
>>>  
>>> 
>>> Nick
>>>   
>>> 
>>> 
>>> On Fri, Apr 3, 2026 at 2:17 PM Nicholas Thompson <[email protected] 
>>> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
>>>>> DES  -- I hate to drag you back into our den and maul you some more but 
>>>>> your last post was fascinting to me and so akin to difficulties we have 
>>>>> had with Elliott Sober and difficulties I have had understnding entropy 
>>>>> (ugh) that I want to pursue them with you further  
>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>> --for me, “fitness” is a name given to (something like) the units (or 
>>>> dimension) in which reproductive success is measured, or quantified.  Not 
>>>> sure “units” is quite the right term, but the point is that it’s about 
>>>> defining a quantification program for observed outcomes, or the model 
>>>> variables that we try to fit to them.  I had taken the state of modern 
>>>> work to show that this is the only actual meaning the term was ever given.
>>>> 
>>>> — are you two claiming otherwise; that my supposition is not at all the 
>>>> case?  That there are biologists for whom there is some other meaning, 
>>>> instead of or in addition to the one I gave above, about being a 
>>>> measurement unit?  Something like: “fitness” is a name for “the cause of 
>>>> reproductive success”.  As if to say: Well, there’s this thing with the 
>>>> form of a name, so there must be something it names, that is a kind of 
>>>> causal force responsible for generating what we witness as reproductive 
>>>> success.  And since there is one name, there must be some one kind of 
>>>> causal force it names.
>>>> 
>>>> — to me, an interpretation like that is so bizarre, it would never have 
>>>> occurred to me to that there is anyone making it.  It seems very similar 
>>>> to taking an expression like “elan vital”, and saying that, since it has 
>>>> the shape of a name, there must be something it names.  To me, those are 
>>>> strings of words that satisfy rules of syntax and that don’t have any 
>>>> semantic referents at all.  They may as well be Chomsky’s “colorless green 
>>>> dreams” or something.  I would not have imagined that there was anything 
>>>> anyone expected, beyond the working out of the mechanics of lots of cases 
>>>> of how-lifecycles-play-out-in-contexts, which can fill out some vast 
>>>> taxonomy that has no singular “essence” underneath it.  That could well be 
>>>> my lack of empathy for how many other people think, like my lack of 
>>>> empathy for their thoughts about God (along with my ignorance about who is 
>>>> in the world).  
>>>> 
>>>> — I guess, since there are people who continue to talk about Strong 
>>>> Emergence, and Philosophical Zombies, and who sound to me much like people 
>>>> who talk about God today, and maybe like people who would have talked 
>>>> about Elan Vital some generations ago, I should have right away imagined 
>>>> this reading of what you were writing.
>>>> 
>>>> If the above is what you were claiming, it would explain why my long Emily 
>>>> Litella-like replies seemed like a tiresome recital of what population 
>>>> geneticists already do (Nick’s point that “all that would be left is 
>>>> EricS’s 2a and 2b”), which everybody already knows anyway, and which isn’t 
>>>> interesting and wasn’t to your point.
>>>> 
>>>> So, were you claiming that there are biologists operating that way?
>>>> 
>>>> And are there really biologists operating that way?  
>>>>  
>>>> 
>>>> On Wed, Apr 1, 2026 at 5:15 AM Santafe <[email protected] 
>>>> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
>>>>> Can I ask one last question? after which I promise I really will shut up:
>>>>> 
>>>>> The content of EricC’s note below (about the key in a lock), reflecting 
>>>>> back on things Nick said in the early posts about selection’s being a 
>>>>> tautology, which got me started digging a hole, have bothered me through 
>>>>> the night, and made me wonder if I can understand how I have been missing 
>>>>> both-of-y’all’s point.  Was it something like the following:?
>>>>> 
>>>>> — for me, “fitness” is a name given to (something like) the units (or 
>>>>> dimension) in which reproductive success is measured, or quantified.  Not 
>>>>> sure “units” is quite the right term, but the point is that it’s about 
>>>>> defining a quantification program for observed outcomes, or the model 
>>>>> variables that we try to fit to them.  I had taken the state of modern 
>>>>> work to show that this is the only actual meaning the term was ever given.
>>>>> 
>>>>> — are you two claiming otherwise; that my supposition is not at all the 
>>>>> case?  That there are biologists for whom there is some other meaning, 
>>>>> instead of or in addition to the one I gave above, about being a 
>>>>> measurement unit?  Something like: “fitness” is a name for “the cause of 
>>>>> reproductive success”.  As if to say: Well, there’s this thing with the 
>>>>> form of a name, so there must be something it names, that is a kind of 
>>>>> causal force responsible for generating what we witness as reproductive 
>>>>> success.  And since there is one name, there must be some one kind of 
>>>>> causal force it names.
>>>>> 
>>>>> — to me, an interpretation like that is so bizarre, it would never have 
>>>>> occurred to me to that there is anyone making it.  It seems very similar 
>>>>> to taking an expression like “elan vital”, and saying that, since it has 
>>>>> the shape of a name, there must be something it names.  To me, those are 
>>>>> strings of words that satisfy rules of syntax and that don’t have any 
>>>>> semantic referents at all.  They may as well be Chomsky’s “colorless 
>>>>> green dreams” or something.  I would not have imagined that there was 
>>>>> anything anyone expected, beyond the working out of the mechanics of lots 
>>>>> of cases of how-lifecycles-play-out-in-contexts, which can fill out some 
>>>>> vast taxonomy that has no singular “essence” underneath it.  That could 
>>>>> well be my lack of empathy for how many other people think, like my lack 
>>>>> of empathy for their thoughts about God (along with my ignorance about 
>>>>> who is in the world).  
>>>>> 
>>>>> — I guess, since there are people who continue to talk about Strong 
>>>>> Emergence, and Philosophical Zombies, and who sound to me much like 
>>>>> people who talk about God today, and maybe like people who would have 
>>>>> talked about Elan Vital some generations ago, I should have right away 
>>>>> imagined this reading of what you were writing.
>>>>> 
>>>>> If the above is what you were claiming, it would explain why my long 
>>>>> Emily Litella-like replies seemed like a tiresome recital of what 
>>>>> population geneticists already do (Nick’s point that “all that would be 
>>>>> left is EricS’s 2a and 2b”), which everybody already knows anyway, and 
>>>>> which isn’t interesting and wasn’t to your point.
>>>>> 
>>>>> So, were you claiming that there are biologists operating that way?
>>>>> 
>>>>> And are there really biologists operating that way?  
>>>>> 
>>>>> As always, I appreciate whatever patience or indulgence, 
>>>>> 
>>>>> Eric
>>>>> 
>>>>> 
>>>>> 
>>>>> 
>>>>>> On Mar 31, 2026, at 15:47, Eric Charles <[email protected] 
>>>>>> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> I'm a bit confused here... 
>>>>>> The initial dog pile on Nick seemed (to me) to have as one of its main 
>>>>>> points something like "Look, old man, once you formalize something 
>>>>>> mathematically we don't need to care what any of the words might mean or 
>>>>>> imply in any other context, it is just math, stop thinking that the 
>>>>>> words matter!" 
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> And now there have been several posts by EricS, at least one by Glen, 
>>>>>> and I think Marcus and Frank are in there somewhere as well, claiming 
>>>>>> that the words are crucially important and we need to take them much 
>>>>>> more seriously. 
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> So.... where does that leave us? Is everyone now onboard with the 
>>>>>> metaphors mattering quite a bit? 
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> I'll also note that "function" can't do the work on its own to explain 
>>>>>> evolution. We still need to know why some functions are favored by 
>>>>>> selection and others are not. EricS seemed to indicate that we assess 
>>>>>> "fit" by determining if animals are "happy".... but the metaphor of 
>>>>>> "fit" is like a key in a lock. To explain evolution you need the 
>>>>>> matching of form-and-function-to-a-particular-environment.  That 
>>>>>> matching *sometimes* increases reproductive success, and *sometimes* the 
>>>>>> traits in question are hereditary. 
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> Population genetics combined with field research can be very powerful 
>>>>>> along those lines, but the math of population genetics on its own, 
>>>>>> floating out in the ether, can't do it at all. 
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> Best,
>>>>>> Eric
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> 
>>>>>>  <mailto:[email protected]>
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> On Tue, Mar 31, 2026 at 6:10 AM Santafe <[email protected] 
>>>>>> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
>>>>>>> Hi Nick,
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> Two smaller replies to what have become two sub-threads:
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> > On Mar 30, 2026, at 15:42, Nicholas Thompson <[email protected] 
>>>>>>> > <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
>>>>>>> > 
>>>>>>> > DES, EPC, FW
>>>>>>> > 
>>>>>>> > So far as I understand, the argument flowing from Fisher makes no 
>>>>>>> > claims about the kind of trait that produces reproductive success 
>>>>>>> > other than that it is the kind that produces reproductive success. 
>>>>>>> > FW, if that's not a tautology, it's a pretty tight circle.   
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> As usual, let’s decamp to more neutral ground in the hope of having an 
>>>>>>> ordinary negotiation.
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> Suppose that, in your overweening pursuit of the study of metaphor, you 
>>>>>>> never noticed that there is a once/4-year gathering called The 
>>>>>>> Olympics.  Also never learned what any of its so-called “events” are, 
>>>>>>> what they are about, how they work, and how one differs from another.  
>>>>>>> My hypothetical here is meant to define a condition of having “very 
>>>>>>> little prior information” about some phenomenon that we can, 
>>>>>>> nonetheless, still reasonably unambiguously circumscribe.
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> But a quick inspection shows that a subset of the participants (who all 
>>>>>>> together seem to be called “athletes”) are given metal disks and stand 
>>>>>>> on some kind of 3-tiered podium, while other athletes do not.  Being a 
>>>>>>> statistician — a skill so helpful in the study of metaphor that it was 
>>>>>>> worth taking the time out to learn — you immediately recognize that 
>>>>>>> this is a kind of marking that can be used to partition the athletes.  
>>>>>>> Taking notice, for the first time, of some of the conversation in the 
>>>>>>> society around you, who seem not nearly so devoted to metaphor and thus 
>>>>>>> have time to do other things, you gather that these marked people seem 
>>>>>>> to be called “winners” (or better, “medalists”, this “winning” thing is 
>>>>>>> a finer sub-partition; I’ll mis-use “winner” to label the most salient 
>>>>>>> marking for this little parable).  It’s handy to have such a term, for 
>>>>>>> use in later sentences, so they become less tedious than the ones I 
>>>>>>> have been typing so far. 
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> You also note that while there is only one 3-tiered podium and 
>>>>>>> metal-disk set per one “event”, there seem to be many such distinct 
>>>>>>> “events”, so some kind of event name gives you a second kind of marking 
>>>>>>> you can put on the athletes.  Moreover, interestingly, the “event” 
>>>>>>> label is again a proper partition (or at least seems to be; this one is 
>>>>>>> less cut-and-dried than the observation that everyone carrying a metal 
>>>>>>> disk is not someone not-carrying a metal disk, so we are wary; the 
>>>>>>> event label seems to be a bit more abstract): every athlete is in some 
>>>>>>> “event” set, and it appears that no athlete is in more than one of 
>>>>>>> them.  As with the “winners” label, you learn that there are 
>>>>>>> conventionalized names for the events, and you can find a look-up table 
>>>>>>> if you need one or another of them. 
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> Now, I can make a list of statements that seem to be of two different 
>>>>>>> kinds (scare quotes here indicate my statisticians’ attribute labels; 
>>>>>>> in my condition of very little prior knowledge, I don’t claim I have 
>>>>>>> any more semantics for them than I listed above):
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> 1. Every “winner" is someone marked as having won something.
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> 2a.  Every winner in the “gymnastics” event is shorter than the average 
>>>>>>> over all the participants;
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> 2b.  Every winner in the “high jump” event is taller than the average 
>>>>>>> over all the participants; 
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> … (we could presumably look for other such summary statistics that seem 
>>>>>>> to be unusually regular and to carry different values in different 
>>>>>>> “events”).
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> I would say sentence 1 is “a tautology”, or close enough to it for the 
>>>>>>> purpose of this negotiation.  Maybe I should use EricC’s good, and 
>>>>>>> slighly more flexible term, “truism”.
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> Now you may write a protest email:  But the sentences 2a, 2b, have not 
>>>>>>> told me what constitutes “competition” in these “events”: “gymnastics” 
>>>>>>> and “high jump”, and given me the rule book for scoring them.  Okay.  
>>>>>>> And they didn’t cook your dinner and do the dishes afterward either. 
>>>>>>> Life is hard.  And more a propos (breaking my little 4th wall here), 
>>>>>>> the path to a fully-adequate “causal” theory through statistical 
>>>>>>> inference is like the Road to Heaven: narrow, tortuous, and inadequate 
>>>>>>> to many things one can rightly want to know.  That’s what other 
>>>>>>> sciences are then for. 
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> But if you claim: The sentences 2a and 2b didn’t give me _any 
>>>>>>> information_ about these “events”, and couldn’t have, because they are 
>>>>>>> tautologies, I would say you made an error.  Of course, the real Nick 
>>>>>>> would not say that, so we are all safe.
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> The above parable is, of course, about selection.  I didn’t say 
>>>>>>> anything about heredity.  But if I had happened to note that height is 
>>>>>>> a fairly heritable trait, I could have spun out a much longer story, 
>>>>>>> and defined some Bayesian-posterior conditional probabilities, which 
>>>>>>> would be shown to have properties such as: the posterior probability, 
>>>>>>> under various ceteris paribus conditions, for a child of a high-jump 
>>>>>>> winner to turn out another high-jump winner is higher than for that 
>>>>>>> child to turn out a gymnastics winner, and so forth.  The amalgamation 
>>>>>>> of both of those stories would go in the direction of Fisher’s 
>>>>>>> fundamental theorem.  It would leave out all the stuff that Fisher left 
>>>>>>> out of emphasis in his mad pursuit of his covariance term as an analog 
>>>>>>> to the thermodynamic 2nd law (a non-valid analogy, as it turns out to 
>>>>>>> be easy to show), and that Price included didactically (and here, to 
>>>>>>> EricC’s answer):  that I didn’t even mention that the tall people might 
>>>>>>> get drafted into wars and put into an infantry to fire rifles over tall 
>>>>>>> dijks, while the short people might be drafted into Special Forces and 
>>>>>>> sent on missions to attack through underground tunnels, and so the 
>>>>>>> number of survivors could depend on many factors about which war their 
>>>>>>> country had started, in what theater, and against what opposition, etc. 
>>>>>>>  These are the world of everything-else that Fisher lumped together 
>>>>>>> into “deterioration of the environment”, as Steve Frank (and I think 
>>>>>>> also Price) lays out.  They are probably not well-analogized to 
>>>>>>> “mutation”, but in genetics, mutation also goes into the same bin in 
>>>>>>> the Price equation — _outside_ the term of Fisher’s fundamental theorem 
>>>>>>> — as the “deterioration” effects.  The accounting identity is flexible 
>>>>>>> enough that we don’t need analogies to use it; we can formulate a 
>>>>>>> version for whatever statistics our phenomenon-of-interest supplies.
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> Anyway; at issue:  Seriously, do we have a problem in scientific work, 
>>>>>>> of people being unable to gain partial knowledge about phenomena 
>>>>>>> through sentences of the kinds 2a, 2b, because they can’t tell the 
>>>>>>> difference between those and sentence 1?  In the world where I live, I 
>>>>>>> don’t see evidence for this mistake.
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> Eric
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. 
>>>>>>> / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..
>>>>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>>>>>> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe   /   Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom 
>>>>>>> https://bit.ly/virtualfriam 
>>>>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,GvQhgG8mgl44zu_Tqszk_wQFcC3LBswQyBsmnoa7umwcI4cM2jGPGmAYotJwNMri0nXMbYayX6uZw5iDa5Mn0zM5Lzi9_LPGwP2Q6dG2zkm1Zw,,&typo=1>
>>>>>>> to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com 
>>>>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,23DEBEu6zm1j58j5JsswXw4R4hnyuhIceP4fdD1lMWDKru8V9CE3qD4-RYjtV5Jy9hfTf9uHOrhrlBi_RdYMT7jsteJtGiX2nEMNJisxFedZstuD_29M3FA,&typo=1>
>>>>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 
>>>>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,Ec4s1UwqPKENLyqkHX4Ib_R7EzxFYgc2j7jZdKdzIhORPykt1347aKvaSNnoCQ4Arvb6m2_GLwAwKSl29d-U5DrlMczDc4AHiyyrX-KaGBCrMK9RdKapkw,,&typo=1>
>>>>>>> archives:  5/2017 thru present 
>>>>>>> https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ 
>>>>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,wWOjZ0Q8WKeZG4U9_UBc_a11JtFDvedQPCTS8FL1Usmbm4F-EJO5IWv_Ignpmf4vTC3CO23cIKVFR_FtMZC8DWD4hyxlN0c7hdOfez8KEw,,&typo=1>
>>>>>>>   1/2003 thru 6/2021  http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
>>>>>> .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. 
>>>>>> / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..
>>>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>>>>> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe   /   Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom 
>>>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,kwN2JIDPqIj9UxOfed-aORUfsTjJO1DufRCI0ppHAlXiormfdNykgyPSWLfGlw5BiruUeiaRfbSG8W1tubwpfhSXeau4oRt3nvXTRhaRUQDZn1ezcoU,&typo=1
>>>>>> to (un)subscribe 
>>>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,kQqYu7I-SVHGT_AjFnLh-XWpOng69axviT6aY8I-XQhC5yk80tH2Ke3qOfyvs8l3RCZeAkeZoIR8TnddaWkwLAXTuoc5QvUR8RvkfEpSQA4,&typo=1
>>>>>> FRIAM-COMIC 
>>>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,Scpn5Z6qKVVYYNEU1u9CRDlFHpw1wgOZOdNM_lN_6PGv3Act07AQi7IpeyFshe33FmWkTI9CAG8DxLRlNRkf96ox2bRdyp5XC_cgCr8eGG_qVIaFKTZQtQ,,&typo=1
>>>>>> archives:  5/2017 thru present 
>>>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,NLxA-XaYLw7kDphTWfVR6urQXoJSKIwq0etxJd8ER-oc2b18abBXo9Qeee2OhAh_25GSqFBFw3JCMtIdxzYZ2dNpnjUjp4hMFRrpN814z2HxmIPhG0rfxUF-CQ,,&typo=1
>>>>>>  1/2003 thru 6/2021  http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
>>>>> 
>>>>> .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / 
>>>>> ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..
>>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>>>> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe   /   Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom 
>>>>> https://bit.ly/virtualfriam 
>>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,zA-G5QKVxSPBJmAMP_AJzjZBgLoWIDEwNhUXDpDE-ij5HxoUybuXHsL7hq3XSjcaie2WQdh2hKkTDoZpSv083KPYvq8qWzFQDpts4RVeb0UxKke--9Km&typo=1>
>>>>> to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com 
>>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,YuoMqhAnODFK7gL8VQKwXiuMZPGgTcNdV3JgB-s9IGxudIzKjP_2nuVrv9XASA2GmtPpabPVY1SoV_P65J8zfqHN98PEQERGPn4JY3pb&typo=1>
>>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 
>>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,RTuBnYPs7aSXh6PCRgC3eltQzFenug0NrzICyO63IHxkmDRWr5as1yZl_aRfSuQdRBjUi6qNKJ8UnKmwUBClw5Wo4YjechJlRTyTQYdOsg,,&typo=1>
>>>>> archives:  5/2017 thru present 
>>>>> https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ 
>>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,-sgioWyoJ9Vy0MyLRBgl8ZQKbLOXF9VqGGTEutRE5wJioXcx3l2BEzHSM8_-tGX-WDZdF5260g7Uh0Nx9QOxyVNE4HeeRJ0JlF_paQyH75-KjEXPeg-W9RQpyVuR&typo=1>
>>>>>   1/2003 thru 6/2021  http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>> --
>>>> Nicholas S. Thompson
>>>> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology
>>>> Clark University
>>>> [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
>>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson 
>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson&c=E,1,TtGHguBztcaI183g6Goerj-O4VoUmgxpx6RFwy76dnUtcD6dMcEs2GfRLne1FYCYIv9JZQ_Qlp0DYwPIxqwUF0P5yyaODACw5wXNyxIS_4NA3OoABA1XdQ,,&typo=1>
>>>> https://substack.com/@monist 
>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fsubstack.com%2f%40monist&c=E,1,mMVE-osMfLMKveVRGsDNOLbCQxE2gtCfa9lLV-tXT5ooNLpQD3mqsdWZrYkDx7mKJDcf7XYJbAAs76SMkAt7fhk6zh8pI_xm2uaiDg2olbukzFktpA,,&typo=1>
>>> 
>>> 
>>> --
>>> Nicholas S. Thompson
>>> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology
>>> Clark University
>>> [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson 
>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson&c=E,1,2XwwB39XAWBxm8sZIiJJtQaGopoq86JnxTvN46gGqo6aH0noWqqKl_l7rB_k-DozfW1XYaJks5IPwIsYhgQEFcMMYaST1TtrgzyaPODraxU,&typo=1>
>>> https://substack.com/@monist 
>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fsubstack.com%2f%40monist&c=E,1,svFJjYNZT04uLonFV0yujfOyRi6wCR5qc-O348ai4iwT5_F08j6oi7TW8PPCmquF6PKjGNjXrIdHlZlDzzHj1-5A3toxXWZa5j7dj8mSyCtOtir_evUN4QOA5A,,&typo=1>.-
>>>  .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... 
>>> --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..
>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe   /   Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom 
>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,1Yj3oXBfXU9FL5YgY7_61lUY6S944YYnB3lhy68u4K0zPI0_lLJl4_qjp8pcYomUasPvoVenzsSlxfJNtZS8lkb_ALVAI9XA-ws_REd_mBz6DeUH5u3xUKaLb4A,&typo=1
>>> to (un)subscribe 
>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,0_T3p9FRn72Wb576gUkbP3yykjXY0kTI-AElcl-eqAWYU5womwJJ5TSlBwcpkYmObXMkPxa-cqkpKy04LnwF9q_s1uc78x2KFJsgvxP6LOgk5twjJd_wXnHKPa0S&typo=1
>>> FRIAM-COMIC 
>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,9_aFoYc8LEBvlTRa6JAb15n0L4Hhp9lNSuX13T_IT-91Oq1jkfJ6EgnCAuLWMPdqpP-KDjnAUT7o3BnwzAIHxkvOxLzAfkPL3aSIq7ro&typo=1
>>> archives:  5/2017 thru present 
>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,lMJPwQ_tUH-IPBwp6f2KXYAEarkDc0KOAA6TwZdPbWwifDQprErklE2-hCs5OWhc1DmB88QWKxpEPkPKXWnNOWMIFzI2Nsv2-XLYgRhUcGlyR_J5clz3J8k1pQ,,&typo=1
>>>  1/2003 thru 6/2021  http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
>> 
>> .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / 
>> ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe   /   Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom 
>> https://bit.ly/virtualfriam 
>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,EHRAq7ghLpjsl4ZHF55qmSa36UhxkealN7ABfO5qkV1J2Mu-lYC4DrN5c9FnHwPRLggzrNN6rWaSOsNed8iBIyLpQVXv1Rorh78hIsygsvEtQ-gJ03xn58aZUZ2Y&typo=1>
>> to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com 
>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,CPvtQP2Uq9O6hx6OoaGqvcOng_hflp90R4THZAMnk-bf2VdAlQHEaFMMukttoZR2uyYsZgR26YJosoJyZ-dw7iTGPHXyIAlnuaqMN8_mLVj8za6HIQln1mmHQapE&typo=1>
>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 
>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,b3AvXhVEy1N77hAdXidLqY4OnlxMl_fkKC4MfVp9DHPWwtZDZjxApEeZrUcZw35Dve69osD9oJEpNlPcXDkCs7aZTCrlkMPel65x03DIYwaqmCcXTc5c&typo=1>
>> archives:  5/2017 thru present 
>> https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ 
>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,eFxPkHDLGdpdeTO-gztrhV4LEU-uCg8Vl8HgGV-NYUbjcqSv9dEjbcOW599M-ZdEWWYP_ahE2rpzPG6T4mNxVaoyagEc53ho0qfIezO1GwnGWEy0i95YVw,,&typo=1>
>>   1/2003 thru 6/2021  http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
> 
> 
> 
> --
> Nicholas S. Thompson
> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology
> Clark University
> [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson 
> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson&c=E,1,yOlkmrrUeTaGeYex3-BP2up_KTKEECrDeXyMl2bn9HMBnlqmOWOhGvMQOKYLoybbMqLzqnZSs7-_jUa1hkV7hkzl30kqZYwyMpt1XgLahOOdGMUu_KCS&typo=1>
> https://substack.com/@monist 
> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fsubstack.com%2f%40monist&c=E,1,sECLaBy8NN4JIxn0K_XdKJaqDL_5f-DBJjVXY18AdRfpb1OgG3a0kH415SIPlY-o8cIJxjTizTCnZ6jKbQKh39BkP19S9307-0f-Ic2zdY6d&typo=1>.-
>  .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... 
> --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe   /   Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom 
> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,tC0PdYiCVSRc7b8jz4x7Yig5Hz71QYRfF3irlQEjCQChVMEQeyRN9YpFygqtdMjjNaAY26D2u5JvjHK-zYJYexEHINcvJUeaY1w-_Oh9zuU78r-Vy2mwuJHIdvnH&typo=1
> to (un)subscribe 
> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,2jJpuVLI2AmmQBLt5lXMu7iYyu1XmT5ctf5oDB0lgfOJhgZFy9kEb5BrFx8O8jEnVxJiV8UKNrvg45SI5-G0cNgA8zmL9lA54oNbx1TwbTkm0RE,&typo=1
> FRIAM-COMIC 
> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,YtDpEX1fabSs1AlCN26XsY-EWjggWd8DwKaaGy4-VIPf0iFrJLBmyul8mQ5A7Q2Btig_DA8y8zKiI4bE9mWoTBg_21KyKki9nm5aCZijj-OY-rl5iliL&typo=1
> archives:  5/2017 thru present 
> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,NvWsaA57CgBqzhKbNfM7nTbeUEIi3Nz3UaZ__wXB6K9DGDMn3mhCOKtx-Y5A9I84BYiPEgB3aTVYkxRGfBJEFfhZoK6HEIhqbrDn_FY5&typo=1
>  1/2003 thru 6/2021  http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/

.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... 
--- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe   /   Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom 
https://bit.ly/virtualfriam
to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
archives:  5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/
  1/2003 thru 6/2021  http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/

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