No matter how much the EU politicians stick up for the euro you can be certain that all the countries concerned have detailed plans for going back to their own currencies -- and almost overnight, too -- if necessary. I've just returned from a holiday in France and I asked one or two about whether they liked the euro or the franc. I got the impression that they'd like to have their own franc back. I would say it's almost certain that Italy will drop out of the euro within a few years. It's getting so deeply into debt and its state pension commitments are far more than it can afford that getting abkc to the lira and then inflating it is about their only way out of trouble (as well as helping their failing exports).
Keith
At 10:36 03/06/2005 -0400, you wrote:
Content-class: urn:content-classes:messagea straw in the wind??
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http://reuters.myway.com/article/20050603/2005-06-03T072109Z_01_N03232223_RTRIDST_0_NEWS-ECONOMY-ITALY-EURO-DC.html
Italy minister says should study leaving euro-paper
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this StoryJun 3, 3:21 AM (ET)
ROME (Reuters) - Italy should consider leaving the single currency and reintroducing the lira, Welfare Minister Roberto Maroni said in a newspaper interview on Friday.
Maroni, a member of the euro-skeptical Northern League party, told the Repubblica daily Italy should hold a referendum to decide whether to return to the lira, at least temporarily.
He also said European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet was one of those chiefly responsible for the "disaster of the euro."
The euro "has proved inadequate in the face of the economic slowdown, the loss of competitiveness and the job crisis," Maroni said.
In this situation, the answer is to give the government greater power to defend national industry from foreign competition and "to give control over the exchange rate back to the government."
Maroni is a front-line government minister but his views are not believed to be shared by those with far greater sway over economic policy, such as Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi or Economy Minister Domenico Siniscalco.
Maroni cited Britain as a virtuous example of a country whose economy "grows and develops, maintaining control over its currency."
When it was put to Maroni that Trichet on Thursday dismissed the idea that monetary union could break up, the minister replied: "Sure, he is one of those chiefly responsible for the disaster of the euro."
He added Trichet should try to convince hard-pressed small Italian businessmen that the euro was a success.
Maroni also dismissed the idea that Italy's struggling economy could face an Argentina-style financial disaster if it abandoned the single currency.
"We're already heading toward Argentina, that's why we have to change direction," he said.
Three years ago Argentina defaulted on its public debt.
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Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>
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