Karen,
I think America is very close now to its end-game in Iraq. Channel 4 News
has just been showing the amazing sight of an American supply convoy stuck
in the Green Zone for the past two days and nights -- either not able or
not willing to supply the American command post at Baghdad airport 15 miles
away. The troops were playing football. I don't think it matters one little
bit now what the Baker-Hamilton Report will say tomorrow or what Bush may
decide -- or try to decide -- in the next few days.
Channel 4's John Snow interviewed the Iraqi Interior Minister who very
skilfully evaded a question of whether he had, or had not, seen the
Baker-Hamilton Report due out tomorrow -- despite being promised
consultation on it before its publication. What he said was that that the
Iraqi government was expanding its security forces.
And at some speed! Not a 6-month, 9-month, 12 month programme. The
following clip showed a lot of these under "training". No longer scenes of
recruits being marched around a barrack square being shouted at by sergeant
majors Waterloo style. What we saw instead seemed like an energency to me.
Rank after rank of young men (from outside Baghdad apparently), not in
uniform, disassembling and assembling Kalashnikoffs.
I think that Maliki has had enough of Bush now, and so has the rest of the
Shia-inclined Iraqi government. I think there's an anti-Sunni pogrom in the
making. That's the impression I got. Whether the government security
forces are in league directly with the Mahdi Army and/or with the Badr
faction of the Shias I have no idea. Possibly both will support it.
I think Iran has won hands down in its confrontation of Bush. And I think
this is now thoroughly absorbed in Iraq. If the Iraqi government and the
Shia militias move against the Sunnis in Baghdad then they will bank on
Saudi Arabia not being able to do anything in direct support. (SA might at
this moment be threatening to cut off oil exports to America but Bush is
now so weak that he cannot stop any possible pogrom in Iraq -- if this is
what is being decided upon. But Saudi Arabia surely cannot be contemplating
any reduction in oil exports as a whole -- with a mounting national debt it
is too desperate now for finance.)
Bush has lost -- not only tactically in Iraq and politically in the whole
of the Middle East but, worst of all, for him and America, he might have
totally lost the plot at home, too, if Saudi Arabia stops or even reduces
its long-term oil exports. America would undoubtedly be able to replace
that oil on the spot market in due course -- but in the meantime what a
blow to Bush and the American economy! Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Iran have all
got their very different reasons for hating Bush but, for a few brief days
or weeks they might be very united -- without needing any consultation or
conspiracy -- in wanting to humble Bush.
I may be wrong. The present stalemate may drift on . . . and on . . . and
on . . . but somehow I think that some sort of end-game -- or the end of
the beginning -- or whatever else it may be called -- is about to take
place. If I'm right, then Bush is about to eat dirt. But will the Democrats
rally round him as good patriotic Americans or will they have the courage
to do what they haven't done so far -- impeach him and Cheney? We'll see.
We also saw Robert Gates being interviewed by the Congressional committee.
He didn't have any ideas and, even if he had, he didn't strike me as
someone who could implement anything. He struck me as being as much a
nonentity as Rumsfeld was a monstrosity.
Keith Hudson
At 08:56 05/12/2006 -0800, you wrote:
With the anticipation of a long awaited prince for a barren throne, the
Baker-Hamilton Commission aka Iraq Study Group is due to release its much
debated report on Wednesday. Much ink has been used analyzing whether this
will precipitate change in the White Houses war policy or just provide a
convenient stalling to do avoid immediate action. Inherently, an
independent commissions report cannot be activated quickly and given the
nature of this White House to ignore, spin, stall and become invisible
when it comes to answers, we should expect no quick action beyond wordsmithing.
<snip>
Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>
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