Greetings, Another key variable not addressed in the posting has to do with the numerical definitions of low/middle/high income levels.
Economists and sociologists routinely try to account for things like inflation, the CPI, etc., by adjusting these standards. Sometimes we will even see distinctions made between urban and rural, or developed country and LDC "standards". of course, the adjustments are frequently subjective if not arbitrary. As one can readily imagine, without explicit description of the standards used in the time periods being compared, the kind of shifts in statistics announced by the summary posting is next to useless. Cheers, Lawry On Dec 15, 2010, at 1:56 PM, Michael Gurstein wrote: > Keith, > > I haven't looked at the base study but I don't think it says what you think > it says. > > Note that this would appear to be a study of the "City" of Toronto rather > than of Metro Toronto... So, there are probably other factors at work here as > well including increasing age segregation--the inner city is probably > becoming younger and more studenty (and thus less wealthy), more immigrant > (in a city of immigrants)--with the middle class moving out to the suburbs. > > This phenomenon is of course, very well known in the US (the hollowing out of > the inner city), but has been avoided somewhat in Canada because of stronger > planning laws, the tendency to maintain educational institutions in urban > environments, the absence of race polarization and so on. > > Mike > -----Original Message----- > From: [email protected] > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Keith Hudson > Sent: Wednesday, December 15, 2010 7:19 AM > To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION,EDUCATION > Subject: Re: [Futurework] Income divide deepening in Toronto > > Arthur, > > This Toronto study is a superb example of the hourglass (or inverted brandy > glass) job structure phenomenon that we have talked about on Futurework many > times. > > Over the past 300 years we have seen a pyramidal job structure change to a > column, which became a diamond shape (1950-1980 I suggest) which then very > quickly became nipped in the middle (about 1980 and onwards) into an > hourglass. In most advanced countries there seems to be a ratio of something > like a 3:1 or 4:1 between the lower part and the upper part respectively. > However, the upper lobe is a great deal larger than the elite used to be in > former (agricultural) times or even in early industrial times. We don't have > occasional millionaires and rare billionaires in the world today as we used > to, even in our own lifetimes: we have millions of the former and hundreds of > the latter. > > If we're now approaching an era of little or no economic growth -- as seems > likely for various reasons -- together with an increasing complexity of the > better-paid jobs (and a continuing dumbing down of the majority of jobs) -- > then unless advanced countries carry out a radical transformation of their > state educational systems then, at best, a permanent social divide will > become entrenched or, at worst, the lower part will gradually wither away as > food and basic energy becomes increasingly expensive and medical services > deteriorate (and not to speak of the ever-growing success of the hard drugs > mafia). > > Keith > > At 09:29 15/12/2010 -0500, you wrote: >> http://www.thestar.com/article/906985 >> >> Toronto is headed toward a scenario where nearly two thirds of residents >> will be in the low income bracket by 2025, according to a study set to be >> released Wednesday. >> >> The latest update of the Three Cities within Toronto study from 2007 >> continues to paint a devastating pictureof income segregationby >> neighbourhoods, according to one source who has seen the report. >> >> Prior to this latest update, one released last year that was based on the >> latest census data showed that 15 of the citys middle income neighbourhoods >> have disappeared since 2001. The majority of these areas reverted to low >> income, where individual earnings were 20 to 40 per cent below the city >> average. >> >> It shows that if current trends continue, a total of 10 per cent of the city >> will be middle income earners by 2025; 30 per cent will be upper middle >> income; and a whopping 60 per cent of Torontos residents will be in the low >> to very low income bracket, sources say. >> >> Thats quite a swing from 1970, when 66 per cent of Toronto neighbourhoods >> were middle income, 15 per cent were upper income, and 19 per cent were low >> income > > Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2010/12/ > > > _______________________________________________ > Futurework mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
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