And what makes it worse is that because we have a progressive tax system
which rises disproportionately during inflation (and thus whittles down
government debt), so governments will have a disproportionate drop in the
tax-take as the wages of the lower lobe declines. Serious!
K
At 10:52 16/12/2010 -0800, you wrote:
I think the evidence, at least anecdotal, suggests that you are probably
right... And the process seems to be happening extremely quickly.
M
-----Original Message-----
From: Keith Hudson [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Wednesday, December 15, 2010 8:24 PM
To: 'RE-DESIGNING WORK,INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION'; Michael Gurstein
Subject: RE: [Futurework] Income divide deepening in Toronto
Mike,
I take your point. Nevertheless, the general observation I made about the
developing hourglass jobs structure is, I think, true enough overall in
all advanced countries.
Keith
At 10:56 15/12/2010 -0800, you wrote:
Keith,
I haven't looked at the base study but I don't think it says what you
think it says.
Note that this would appear to be a study of the "City" of Toronto rather
than of Metro Toronto... So, there are probably other factors at work
here as well including increasing age segregation--the inner city is
probably becoming younger and more studenty (and thus less wealthy), more
immigrant (in a city of immigrants)--with the middle class moving out to
the suburbs.
This phenomenon is of course, very well known in the US (the hollowing
out of the inner city), but has been avoided somewhat in Canada because
of stronger planning laws, the tendency to maintain educational
institutions in urban environments, the absence of race polarization and so on.
Mike
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Keith Hudson
Sent: Wednesday, December 15, 2010 7:19 AM
To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION,EDUCATION
Subject: Re: [Futurework] Income divide deepening in Toronto
Arthur,
This Toronto study is a superb example of the hourglass (or inverted
brandy glass) job structure phenomenon that we have talked about on
Futurework many times.
Over the past 300 years we have seen a pyramidal job structure change to
a column, which became a diamond shape (1950-1980 I suggest) which then
very quickly became nipped in the middle (about 1980 and onwards) into an
hourglass. In most advanced countries there seems to be a ratio of
something like a 3:1 or 4:1 between the lower part and the upper part
respectively. However, the upper lobe is a great deal larger than the
elite used to be in former (agricultural) times or even in early
industrial times. We don't have occasional millionaires and rare
billionaires in the world today as we used to, even in our own lifetimes:
we have millions of the former and hundreds of the latter.
If we're now approaching an era of little or no economic growth -- as
seems likely for various reasons -- together with an increasing
complexity of the better-paid jobs (and a continuing dumbing down of the
majority of jobs) -- then unless advanced countries carry out a radical
transformation of their state educational systems then, at best, a
permanent social divide will become entrenched or, at worst, the lower
part will gradually wither away as food and basic energy becomes
increasingly expensive and medical services deteriorate (and not to speak
of the ever-growing success of the hard drugs mafia).
Keith
At 09:29 15/12/2010 -0500, you wrote:
<http://www.thestar.com/article/906985>http://www.thestar.com/article/906985
Toronto is headed toward a scenario where nearly two thirds of residents
will be in the low income bracket by 2025, according to a study set to
be released Wednesday.
The latest update of the Three Cities within Toronto study from 2007
continues to paint a devastating pictureof income segregationby
neighbourhoods, according to one source who has seen the report.
Prior to this latest update, one released last year that was based on
the latest census data showed that 15 of the citys middle income
neighbourhoods have disappeared since 2001. The majority of these areas
reverted to low income, where individual earnings were 20 to 40 per cent
below the city average.
It shows that if current trends continue, a total of 10 per cent of the
city will be middle income earners by 2025; 30 per cent will be upper
middle income; and a whopping 60 per cent of Torontos residents will be
in the low to very low income bracket, sources say.
Thats quite a swing from 1970, when 66 per cent of Toronto
neighbourhoods were middle income, 15 per cent were upper income, and 19
per cent were low income
Keith Hudson, Saltford, England
<http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2010/12/>http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2010/12/
Keith Hudson, Saltford, England
<http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2010/12/>http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2010/12/
Keith Hudson, Saltford, England
<http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2010/12/>http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2010/12/
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