I believe you "hit the nail on the head."
REH From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Keith Hudson Sent: Thursday, December 16, 2010 3:02 PM To: 'RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION'; Michael Gurstein Subject: Re: [Futurework] Income divide deepening in Toronto And what makes it worse is that because we have a progressive tax system which rises disproportionately during inflation (and thus whittles down government debt), so governments will have a disproportionate drop in the tax-take as the wages of the lower lobe declines. Serious! K At 10:52 16/12/2010 -0800, you wrote: I think the evidence, at least anecdotal, suggests that you are probably right... And the process seems to be happening extremely quickly. M -----Original Message----- From: Keith Hudson [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Wednesday, December 15, 2010 8:24 PM To: 'RE-DESIGNING WORK,INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION'; Michael Gurstein Subject: RE: [Futurework] Income divide deepening in Toronto Mike, I take your point. Nevertheless, the general observation I made about the developing hourglass jobs structure is, I think, true enough overall in all advanced countries. Keith At 10:56 15/12/2010 -0800, you wrote: Keith, I haven't looked at the base study but I don't think it says what you think it says. Note that this would appear to be a study of the "City" of Toronto rather than of Metro Toronto... So, there are probably other factors at work here as well including increasing age segregation--the inner city is probably becoming younger and more studenty (and thus less wealthy), more immigrant (in a city of immigrants)--with the middle class moving out to the suburbs. This phenomenon is of course, very well known in the US (the hollowing out of the inner city), but has been avoided somewhat in Canada because of stronger planning laws, the tendency to maintain educational institutions in urban environments, the absence of race polarization and so on. Mike -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Keith Hudson Sent: Wednesday, December 15, 2010 7:19 AM To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION,EDUCATION Subject: Re: [Futurework] Income divide deepening in Toronto Arthur, This Toronto study is a superb example of the hourglass (or inverted brandy glass) job structure phenomenon that we have talked about on Futurework many times. Over the past 300 years we have seen a pyramidal job structure change to a column, which became a diamond shape (1950-1980 I suggest) which then very quickly became nipped in the middle (about 1980 and onwards) into an hourglass. In most advanced countries there seems to be a ratio of something like a 3:1 or 4:1 between the lower part and the upper part respectively. However, the upper lobe is a great deal larger than the elite used to be in former (agricultural) times or even in early industrial times. We don't have occasional millionaires and rare billionaires in the world today as we used to, even in our own lifetimes: we have millions of the former and hundreds of the latter. If we're now approaching an era of little or no economic growth -- as seems likely for various reasons -- together with an increasing complexity of the better-paid jobs (and a continuing dumbing down of the majority of jobs) -- then unless advanced countries carry out a radical transformation of their state educational systems then, at best, a permanent social divide will become entrenched or, at worst, the lower part will gradually wither away as food and basic energy becomes increasingly expensive and medical services deteriorate (and not to speak of the ever-growing success of the hard drugs mafia). Keith At 09:29 15/12/2010 -0500, you wrote: http://www.thestar.com/article/906985 Toronto is headed toward a scenario where nearly two thirds of residents will be in the low income bracket by 2025, according to a study set to be released Wednesday. The latest update of the Three Cities within Toronto study from 2007 continues to paint a devastating pictureof income segregationby neighbourhoods, according to one source who has seen the report. Prior to this latest update, one released last year that was based on the latest census data showed that 15 of the citys middle income neighbourhoods have disappeared since 2001. The majority of these areas reverted to low income, where individual earnings were 20 to 40 per cent below the city average. It shows that if current trends continue, a total of 10 per cent of the city will be middle income earners by 2025; 30 per cent will be upper middle income; and a whopping 60 per cent of Torontos residents will be in the low to very low income bracket, sources say. Thats quite a swing from 1970, when 66 per cent of Toronto neighbourhoods were middle income, 15 per cent were upper income, and 19 per cent were low income Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2010/12/ Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2010/12/ Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2010/12/
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