Hope you had a nice breakfast. :>))
REH From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Keith Hudson Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2012 5:19 AM To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, , EDUCATION Subject: [Futurework] Why the Dalai Lama will win The only reason so far for the success of China is that it has copied all the consumer products that have been invented in the West and as much of the latest technology as it can lay its hands on. However, since 1901, when Nobel prizes were instituted (and also when all the technologies and scientific ideas of the West were almost fully available to China), the country has won only 9 scientific prizes whereas America, Germany and the UK have won over 320 between them. Unless China were to radicalize its highly authoritarian education system, which squeezes out the creativity of its children from their earliest years, then it's unlikely to win more than a dozen more scientific prizes in the next century (except, of course, for the rapidly increasing number of Chinese scientists who will have been taught in Western schools and who dare to think laterally because they have absorbed the non-Confucian culture). In balance of payments terms, China is going to be successful for a long time yet. It will need another 20 years or so to bring its coastline population of 600 million up to the average standard of living of the West (or as we 'enjoyed' it prior to 2008). It will take another 30 or so years for China to bring the rest of its 700 million rural population up to scratch even if all goes well with sufficient available world resources (in competition against the resource requirements of at least 2 billion in India, Brazil and Indonesia). I cannot see the second phase occurring in China because the major cities of the coastline will probably wrench their way out of centralized control and become largely independent city-states as, indeed, Hong Kong has largely remained since the British released their (non-democratic) control in 1997. The new provinces will not only monopolize the production of profitable exports but also the resources that are imported. Like the 80-class (that is, inadequately educated majority) of the Western countries, which is now increasingly dependent on state welfare benefits, the poor of the rural interior of China will, quite simply, not replenish themselves in sufficient numbers and will largely die out. What will be the future of the 20-class (that is, the adequately educated and connected class) of the West? More specifically, what will be the future of the 20-class in America, Germany and the UK? Together with a small number of exceptionally creative cultures such as Finland, Israel, Singapore or Switzerland, this is where the leading edge of research in neuroscience and genetics is to be found and likely to be maintained in the coming decades. The reason for this that both of these research areas are so complex that they increasingly require high connectivities between specialists researchers and large teams of researchers. Thus nascent ideas and commercial development in these two growth sectors will not be anywhere near as copiable as they have been hitherto in, say, engineering, nor can key personnel be recruited as individuals. But the 20-class of the West is also not replenishing its numbers itself at present. Will it, too, decide to fade away voluntarily as the increasingly impoverished 80-class has been doing for the past 30 years? Hardly. As the population falls away, and as immigration resistance of the West intensifies in order not to share their increasingly meagre welfare benefits, then the beauties and attractiveness of the natural world will be all the more available. And, as any parent knows, such enjoyment is greatly reinforced when there are children to share them with. The 20-class is likely to start having family sizes above two children in the coming years as they survive the present recession in good heart. But even if the 20-class doesn't breed enough children, neuroscience and genetics can help them specifically (in addition to their broader commercial development). Neuroscience tells us that large-scale rear-brain culling takes place before puberty. Too much culling (because of a poor informational and attention-ful family environment) is capable of blunting a child's mind greatly by the age of 5 years-old and almost completely so by the age of puberty. An inadequate brain is then largely irremediable. Skills that haven't developed by then are never teachable from then onwards to any high level. Also, genetics tells us that high intelligence is not so much the product of a few special genes but several hundred of them. High talent is more the product of DNA which does not have too many sub-optimal genes, whether dominant or recessive, rather than having anything unusual about it. Any 'ordinary' child, given a secure, affectionate upbringing with good socializing and educational opportunities at a very young age, and with good skill training to follow and a daily existence with sufficient spare time to think can produce what we call 'genius' or at least a 'brilliant' mind. And how will the 20-class recruit the talented numbers they require for continuation? It will do so in exactly the same way that the Dalai Lama used to be recruited by the Buddhist monks of Tibet or the Living Sun Goddess was (and continues to be) in Hindu Nepal. And if you want to know how they were recruited without the modern benefits of neuroscience and genetics, but fully consonant with them, please write to me. I have gone on long enough this morning and breakfast calls. Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com <http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/>
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