But, what if the education enslaves? Harry \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
On Sun, Jul 29, 2012 at 9:25 AM, Ray Harrell <[email protected]> wrote: > Next thing we will see will be studies on the genuine value of governments > versus wild west corporations. "Governments don't help all that much, may > as well not have them and trust your gun." The neo-Corporatist right wing > has been pushing such studies for at least ten years here. Personally, I > believe education and competence is the only basis of freedom. Only > education can conquer the insecurity that is the root of the mental slavery > we are encountering at the moment. There is a lot of writing about this > by the American Founders and especially Thomas Jefferson. > > > > REH > > > > From: [email protected] > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Keith Hudson > Sent: Sunday, July 29, 2012 1:13 AM > To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, , EDUCATION > Subject: [Futurework] Brilliant analysis of future jobs and trends > > > > Quite the most brilliant analysis of education and job trends in America I > have yet read appears as an op-ed on Bloomberg website. I've copied it here > in case it is soon replaced. > > Keith > > How Recession Will Change University Financing > > A. Gary Shilling > > The latest recession will probably be seen as a turning point for college > and university financing. > > Indeed, the initial reaction by many youths to soaring unemployment was to > stay in or return to college to wait out the bad times and get better > prepared to face a tough job market. For-profit and community colleges have > been especially attractive, and in the fall of 2011, there were 22 percent > more students enrolled in the nation’s 1,200 community colleges than in the > fall of 2007. Nevertheless, less than half graduate. > > Also, those now leaving college are finding few jobs. Only 54 percent of > those age 18 to 24 are employed, the lowest share since data began to be > collected in 1948, and the unemployment- rate gap between this demographic > group and all working-age adults is the widest on record. Only 49 percent of > graduates from the classes of 2009 to 2011 found jobs within their first > year out of school, compared with 73 percent of those who graduated three > years earlier. About 54 percent of bachelor’s- degree holders under 25, or > about 1.5 million people, were jobless or underemployed last year. > > In addition, there is now research challenging the economic value of a > college education. Data comparing the average earnings of college graduates > at each age with those of workers with only a high-school diploma indicate > that the first group has an advantage of $1 million or more for full-time > work from age 25 to 64. But college-bound students usually have better > abilities, better grades, more maturity, better support from home, higher > test scores and better job prospects than those who enter the workforce out > of high school. > > Lifetime Income > > Furthermore, the raw lifetime-income differences don’t account for tuition > costs, interest on student loans, lost wages while in college, and the > discounting of future earnings. > > Various studies that take these things into account indicate that each year > of college adds 6 percent to 10 percent to annual incomes, so lifetime > earnings increase by a range of $300,000 to $600,000, not $1 million or > more. The College Board calculates that using 2008 data, a student entering > college in 2010 at age 18 who borrows his way to a degree earns enough by > age 33 to make up the cost, including wages forgone and loan interest. > That’s a 5 percent to 6 percent return on investment - -- meaningful but not > huge. These results partly reflect the 184 percent increase in real tuition > costs in the past 20 years, which has occurred as the real pay of college > graduates has risen only 9 percent. > > The cost of college certainly makes raising children more expensive. The > Agriculture Department reports that a family with $59,410 to $102,870 in > pretax income will spend almost $300,000 to raise a child for the first 17 > years. But that doesn’t take into account the unpaid time spent on > parenting, including income forgone by parents who stay at home or work less > in order to care for their offspring. It also doesn’t consider the > opportunity costs of not investing the money spent on the child, or college > costs. There are estimates that raising a child to age 22, including > college, would about triple the cost, to about $900,000. > > With few job prospects and high levels of student loans -- 55 percent of the > 2010 graduates of four-year public institutions left school with debt > averaging $22,000 -- many young people are disillusioned. The average real > debt for new graduates rose 24 percent from 2000 through 2010. And about a > third of those who are employed take jobs that don’t require a four-year > degree. > > Liberal Arts > > Most thought that a bachelor's degree was the ticket to a well-paid job, and > that the heavy student loans were worth it and manageable. And many thought > that majors such as social science, education, criminal justice or > humanities would still get them jobs. They didn’t realize that the jobs that > could be obtained with such credentials were the nice-to-have but > nonessential positions of the boom years that would disappear when times got > tough and businesses slashed costs. > > Some of those recent graduates probably didn’t want to do, or were > intellectually incapable of doing, the hard work required to major in > science and engineering. After all, afternoon labs cut into athletic > pursuits and social time. Yet that’s where the jobs are now. Many U.S.-based > companies are moving their research-and-development operations offshore > because of the lack of scientists and engineers in this country, either > native or foreign-born. > > For 34- to 49-year-olds, student debt has leaped 40 percent in the past > three years, more than for any other age group. Many of those debtors were > unemployed and succumbed to for-profit school ads that promised high-paying > jobs for graduates. But those jobs seldom materialized, while the student > debt remained. > > Moreover, many college graduates are ill-prepared for almost any job. A > study by the Pew Charitable Trusts examined the abilities of U.S. college > graduates in three areas: analyzing news stories, understanding documents > and possessing the math proficiency to handle tasks such as balancing a > checkbook or tipping in a restaurant. > > The results were deplorable. Half the graduates of four- year colleges and > three-quarters of those from two-year institutions lacked the skills to > understand credit-card offers. They also couldn’t interpret tables relating > exercise to blood pressure or understand newspaper-editorial arguments. > > And what’s expected of students at all levels has been dumbed down > tremendously in recent decades. Perfect scores on SATs used to be unheard > of. Now they’re routine. > > Furthermore, the best graduate students in the top universities are often > foreigners. And they come from countries that have much cheaper education > systems. Yet American 15-year- olds rank in the middle of the pack in math, > reading and science scores, and their high-school graduation rates are below > international averages. > > Education Standards > > As higher-education quantity has soared, quality has dropped. Many > institutions are mere diploma mills, graduating students of limited > capability. Wall Street companies and management consultants fawn over MBAs > from Stanford and Harvard, but won’t even interview the legions of > night-school MBAs, who were taught by poorly paid adjunct professors at > lesser institutions. > > The realization that many recent college graduates were poorly prepared for > nonexistent jobs, that they will be burdened for years with crushing student > loans along with the resulting frustration, may be bringing about a great > revelation: Going to college doesn’t make you smart and ready for a good, > well-paid job. There’s little causal relationship between going to college > and financial success despite the statistical link. And you can’t prove > causality with statistics. > > Indeed, causality probably runs the other way. Today, most smart people go > to college, especially as the top institutions beat the bushes for able, but > disadvantaged, students with brains who lack legacy or other connections. > But bright people would be successful without college, as was common before > the days when a degree became almost mandatory. This direction of causality > is also suggested by the high dropout rates of low- income students, who > often lack the intellectual preparation for college. Furthermore, those who > demonstrate the brains needed for college while in high school usually enter > four-year institutions and graduate. > > A minimum of a bachelor’s degree is needed to be considered for a decent > job; it’s the initial screen used by most employers. And, of course, > employers generally are assured that top school graduates have the best > prospects for success -- whether it’s because those institutions do a great > job at education or because they attract the cream of the crop. At the same > time, so many people graduate from college that even bartenders have > degrees. Did the chemistry courses teach them how to mix martinis? The money > spent on people who don’t require more than a high-school diploma for their > jobs is wasted, as is their time in college. > > Vocational Training > > If it becomes widely apparent that college doesn’t make people smart, > high-school students will probably be much more efficiently directed to > institutions that match their capabilities. Those with high IQs, grades and > test scores will be encouraged to attend four-year colleges and > universities. Those in the middle will be guided to community colleges with > the option of transferring to four-year institutions if they do well. And > less-able students will be channeled toward vocational training for > occupations that suit them and often pay very well. > > Employers could encourage the rationalization of post- secondary education > to match ability with the proper educational and training institutions by > making it clear that a college or graduate degree by itself doesn’t cut much > ice. Those who don’t come from credible institutions or can’t pass rigorous > tests need not apply. This would discourage many from spending their time > and money on worthless degrees and encourage them to pursue more fruitful > education and training. > > Just consider the demand for carpenters, plumbers, electricians and > mechanics, and the high pay they now command, even in this weak economy. > Community colleges with two-year courses in technical specialties are > training people for these jobs and for manufacturing positions such as > machinists, robotics specialists and other highly skilled trades. An > estimated 600,000 skilled middle-class manufacturing jobs remain unfilled > nationwide, even as millions of Americans are still unemployed. German > companies with operations in the U.S. such as Siemens AG, Bayerische Motoren > Werke AG and Robert Bosch GmbH are transferring their nation’s system here. > It involves apprentice programs in partnerships with technical schools. > > The student-loan glut is depressing college financing, but so too are other > woes unleashed by the recession. With high unemployment, depressed incomes, > still-reduced investment portfolios and collapsed house prices, alumni > giving is under pressure. And it is likely to remain so in the > slow-economic- growth atmosphere of deleveraging that will probably take > another five to seven years to complete. > > The financial status of students’ parents will remain troubled for the same > reasons. Many, as they approach retirement, will confront vastly inadequate > savings and need to save for their own well-being, as well as to help > finance their kids’ educations.Home equity used to be available to fund > children’s college tuition, but no more. > > Declining Appeal > > In 2010, one-third of parents surveyed by the education- lender Sallie Mae > strongly agreed that children should attend college for the experience, > regardless of the effect on their potential earnings. In 2011, that number > slipped to 24 percent. > > Most college endowments have recovered from the huge losses of 2008, but > remain more cautious, with weaker gains likely in future years. They are now > prepared for lower returns as they emphasize dividends, investment-grade > bond interest and other here-and-now income rather than pie-in-the-sky > capital gains. > > According to a new study by student-loan provider Sallie Mae (SLM), grants > and scholarships fell 15 percent in the 2011-2012 academic year to $6,077 on > average from $7,124 in 2010-2011. This category includes money from colleges > as well as scholarships from other institutions and federal funding such as > Pell grants. > > State governments, hard-pressed by persistent budget deficits and vastly > underfunded pension plans, are cutting costs, including aid to state > colleges and universities. After decades of growth, state funding for higher > education has fallen 15 percent since 2008, adjusted for inflation. Federal > funding for university research is also declining. > > Responses to the crisis in higher-education financing are developing and > varied. Some institutions are raising tuition. Some are reorienting their > programs away from the liberal arts and toward training for careers. > > While some institutions are considering tuition freezes as a way of > containing costs, the University of the South known as Sewanee, has gone > even further. Last February, Sewanee cut tuition and fees for the 2011-2012 > academic year by 10 percent. Last November, the school announced that for > current students, costs for the 2012-2013 year were frozen at $41,518. Then > in January of this year, the university froze the annual costs for incoming > freshmen in 2012 at $44,630 for four years, or through the spring of 2016. > > Sewanee Experiment > > Sewanee wants to address the spiraling costs of higher education, the > lingering effects of the recession and the siphoning-off of prospects by > state schools where student costs are rising in many cases due to cuts in > state funding, even though costs remain lower than at private colleges. The > tuition cut and freezes also reduce the pressure to buy attractive students > with merit scholarships and help Sewanee compete with other private schools, > where tuition and fees continue to rise much faster than the consumer price > index. Sewanee now plans to concentrate its financial aid on needy students. > > The marketplace has responded very positively to these actions. Applications > for this fall have risen 15 percent from last year, and the quality of > applicants has improved. The entering freshman class in 2011 numbered 433, > up from 401 in 2010. > > The school has also become more selective, offering admission to 56 percent, > compared with 60 percent earlier. It will be interesting to see if other > colleges follow Sewanee's lead. > > (A. Gary Shilling is president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. and author of “The > Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and > Deflation.” The opinions expressed are his own. This is the second in a > two-part series.) > > > > Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com > > > > _______________________________________________ > Futurework mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework > _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [email protected] https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
