By George, I think he's got it! Harry \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
On Sun, Jul 29, 2012 at 8:26 PM, Ray Harrell <[email protected]> wrote: > That's not education, that's coaching. > > REH > > -----Original Message----- > From: [email protected] > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Harry Pollard > Sent: Sunday, July 29, 2012 11:07 PM > To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION > Cc: Keith Hudson > Subject: Re: [Futurework] Brilliant analysis of future jobs and trends > > But, what if the education enslaves? > > Harry > \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ > > On Sun, Jul 29, 2012 at 9:25 AM, Ray Harrell <[email protected]> wrote: >> Next thing we will see will be studies on the genuine value of governments >> versus wild west corporations. "Governments don't help all that much, > may >> as well not have them and trust your gun." The neo-Corporatist right > wing >> has been pushing such studies for at least ten years here. Personally, > I >> believe education and competence is the only basis of freedom. Only >> education can conquer the insecurity that is the root of the mental > slavery >> we are encountering at the moment. There is a lot of writing about this >> by the American Founders and especially Thomas Jefferson. >> >> >> >> REH >> >> >> >> From: [email protected] >> [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Keith >> Hudson >> Sent: Sunday, July 29, 2012 1:13 AM >> To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, , EDUCATION >> Subject: [Futurework] Brilliant analysis of future jobs and trends >> >> >> >> Quite the most brilliant analysis of education and job trends in >> America I have yet read appears as an op-ed on Bloomberg website. I've >> copied it here in case it is soon replaced. >> >> Keith >> >> How Recession Will Change University Financing >> >> A. Gary Shilling >> >> The latest recession will probably be seen as a turning point for >> college and university financing. >> >> Indeed, the initial reaction by many youths to soaring unemployment >> was to stay in or return to college to wait out the bad times and get >> better prepared to face a tough job market. For-profit and community >> colleges have been especially attractive, and in the fall of 2011, >> there were 22 percent more students enrolled in the nation's 1,200 >> community colleges than in the fall of 2007. Nevertheless, less than half > graduate. >> >> Also, those now leaving college are finding few jobs. Only 54 percent >> of those age 18 to 24 are employed, the lowest share since data began >> to be collected in 1948, and the unemployment- rate gap between this >> demographic group and all working-age adults is the widest on record. >> Only 49 percent of graduates from the classes of 2009 to 2011 found >> jobs within their first year out of school, compared with 73 percent >> of those who graduated three years earlier. About 54 percent of >> bachelor's- degree holders under 25, or about 1.5 million people, were > jobless or underemployed last year. >> >> In addition, there is now research challenging the economic value of a >> college education. Data comparing the average earnings of college >> graduates at each age with those of workers with only a high-school >> diploma indicate that the first group has an advantage of $1 million >> or more for full-time work from age 25 to 64. But college-bound >> students usually have better abilities, better grades, more maturity, >> better support from home, higher test scores and better job prospects >> than those who enter the workforce out of high school. >> >> Lifetime Income >> >> Furthermore, the raw lifetime-income differences don't account for >> tuition costs, interest on student loans, lost wages while in college, >> and the discounting of future earnings. >> >> Various studies that take these things into account indicate that each >> year of college adds 6 percent to 10 percent to annual incomes, so >> lifetime earnings increase by a range of $300,000 to $600,000, not $1 >> million or more. The College Board calculates that using 2008 data, a >> student entering college in 2010 at age 18 who borrows his way to a >> degree earns enough by age 33 to make up the cost, including wages forgone > and loan interest. >> That's a 5 percent to 6 percent return on investment - -- meaningful >> but not huge. These results partly reflect the 184 percent increase in >> real tuition costs in the past 20 years, which has occurred as the >> real pay of college graduates has risen only 9 percent. >> >> The cost of college certainly makes raising children more expensive. >> The Agriculture Department reports that a family with $59,410 to >> $102,870 in pretax income will spend almost $300,000 to raise a child >> for the first 17 years. But that doesn't take into account the unpaid >> time spent on parenting, including income forgone by parents who stay >> at home or work less in order to care for their offspring. It also >> doesn't consider the opportunity costs of not investing the money >> spent on the child, or college costs. There are estimates that raising >> a child to age 22, including college, would about triple the cost, to > about $900,000. >> >> With few job prospects and high levels of student loans -- 55 percent >> of the >> 2010 graduates of four-year public institutions left school with debt >> averaging $22,000 -- many young people are disillusioned. The average >> real debt for new graduates rose 24 percent from 2000 through 2010. >> And about a third of those who are employed take jobs that don't >> require a four-year degree. >> >> Liberal Arts >> >> Most thought that a bachelor's degree was the ticket to a well-paid >> job, and that the heavy student loans were worth it and manageable. >> And many thought that majors such as social science, education, >> criminal justice or humanities would still get them jobs. They didn't >> realize that the jobs that could be obtained with such credentials >> were the nice-to-have but nonessential positions of the boom years >> that would disappear when times got tough and businesses slashed costs. >> >> Some of those recent graduates probably didn't want to do, or were >> intellectually incapable of doing, the hard work required to major in >> science and engineering. After all, afternoon labs cut into athletic >> pursuits and social time. Yet that's where the jobs are now. Many >> U.S.-based companies are moving their research-and-development >> operations offshore because of the lack of scientists and engineers in >> this country, either native or foreign-born. >> >> For 34- to 49-year-olds, student debt has leaped 40 percent in the >> past three years, more than for any other age group. Many of those >> debtors were unemployed and succumbed to for-profit school ads that >> promised high-paying jobs for graduates. But those jobs seldom >> materialized, while the student debt remained. >> >> Moreover, many college graduates are ill-prepared for almost any job. >> A study by the Pew Charitable Trusts examined the abilities of U.S. >> college graduates in three areas: analyzing news stories, >> understanding documents and possessing the math proficiency to handle >> tasks such as balancing a checkbook or tipping in a restaurant. >> >> The results were deplorable. Half the graduates of four- year colleges >> and three-quarters of those from two-year institutions lacked the >> skills to understand credit-card offers. They also couldn't interpret >> tables relating exercise to blood pressure or understand > newspaper-editorial arguments. >> >> And what's expected of students at all levels has been dumbed down >> tremendously in recent decades. Perfect scores on SATs used to be >> unheard of. Now they're routine. >> >> Furthermore, the best graduate students in the top universities are >> often foreigners. And they come from countries that have much cheaper >> education systems. Yet American 15-year- olds rank in the middle of >> the pack in math, reading and science scores, and their high-school >> graduation rates are below international averages. >> >> Education Standards >> >> As higher-education quantity has soared, quality has dropped. Many >> institutions are mere diploma mills, graduating students of limited >> capability. Wall Street companies and management consultants fawn over >> MBAs from Stanford and Harvard, but won't even interview the legions >> of night-school MBAs, who were taught by poorly paid adjunct >> professors at lesser institutions. >> >> The realization that many recent college graduates were poorly >> prepared for nonexistent jobs, that they will be burdened for years >> with crushing student loans along with the resulting frustration, may >> be bringing about a great >> revelation: Going to college doesn't make you smart and ready for a >> good, well-paid job. There's little causal relationship between going >> to college and financial success despite the statistical link. And you >> can't prove causality with statistics. >> >> Indeed, causality probably runs the other way. Today, most smart >> people go to college, especially as the top institutions beat the >> bushes for able, but disadvantaged, students with brains who lack legacy > or other connections. >> But bright people would be successful without college, as was common >> before the days when a degree became almost mandatory. This direction >> of causality is also suggested by the high dropout rates of low- >> income students, who often lack the intellectual preparation for >> college. Furthermore, those who demonstrate the brains needed for >> college while in high school usually enter four-year institutions and > graduate. >> >> A minimum of a bachelor's degree is needed to be considered for a >> decent job; it's the initial screen used by most employers. And, of >> course, employers generally are assured that top school graduates have >> the best prospects for success -- whether it's because those >> institutions do a great job at education or because they attract the >> cream of the crop. At the same time, so many people graduate from >> college that even bartenders have degrees. Did the chemistry courses >> teach them how to mix martinis? The money spent on people who don't >> require more than a high-school diploma for their jobs is wasted, as is > their time in college. >> >> Vocational Training >> >> If it becomes widely apparent that college doesn't make people smart, >> high-school students will probably be much more efficiently directed >> to institutions that match their capabilities. Those with high IQs, >> grades and test scores will be encouraged to attend four-year colleges >> and universities. Those in the middle will be guided to community >> colleges with the option of transferring to four-year institutions if >> they do well. And less-able students will be channeled toward >> vocational training for occupations that suit them and often pay very > well. >> >> Employers could encourage the rationalization of post- secondary >> education to match ability with the proper educational and training >> institutions by making it clear that a college or graduate degree by >> itself doesn't cut much ice. Those who don't come from credible >> institutions or can't pass rigorous tests need not apply. This would >> discourage many from spending their time and money on worthless >> degrees and encourage them to pursue more fruitful education and training. >> >> Just consider the demand for carpenters, plumbers, electricians and >> mechanics, and the high pay they now command, even in this weak economy. >> Community colleges with two-year courses in technical specialties are >> training people for these jobs and for manufacturing positions such as >> machinists, robotics specialists and other highly skilled trades. An >> estimated 600,000 skilled middle-class manufacturing jobs remain >> unfilled nationwide, even as millions of Americans are still >> unemployed. German companies with operations in the U.S. such as >> Siemens AG, Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and Robert Bosch GmbH are > transferring their nation's system here. >> It involves apprentice programs in partnerships with technical schools. >> >> The student-loan glut is depressing college financing, but so too are >> other woes unleashed by the recession. With high unemployment, >> depressed incomes, still-reduced investment portfolios and collapsed >> house prices, alumni giving is under pressure. And it is likely to >> remain so in the >> slow-economic- growth atmosphere of deleveraging that will probably >> take another five to seven years to complete. >> >> The financial status of students' parents will remain troubled for the >> same reasons. Many, as they approach retirement, will confront vastly >> inadequate savings and need to save for their own well-being, as well >> as to help finance their kids' educations.Home equity used to be >> available to fund children's college tuition, but no more. >> >> Declining Appeal >> >> In 2010, one-third of parents surveyed by the education- lender Sallie >> Mae strongly agreed that children should attend college for the >> experience, regardless of the effect on their potential earnings. In >> 2011, that number slipped to 24 percent. >> >> Most college endowments have recovered from the huge losses of 2008, >> but remain more cautious, with weaker gains likely in future years. >> They are now prepared for lower returns as they emphasize dividends, >> investment-grade bond interest and other here-and-now income rather >> than pie-in-the-sky capital gains. >> >> According to a new study by student-loan provider Sallie Mae (SLM), >> grants and scholarships fell 15 percent in the 2011-2012 academic year >> to $6,077 on average from $7,124 in 2010-2011. This category includes >> money from colleges as well as scholarships from other institutions >> and federal funding such as Pell grants. >> >> State governments, hard-pressed by persistent budget deficits and >> vastly underfunded pension plans, are cutting costs, including aid to >> state colleges and universities. After decades of growth, state >> funding for higher education has fallen 15 percent since 2008, >> adjusted for inflation. Federal funding for university research is also > declining. >> >> Responses to the crisis in higher-education financing are developing >> and varied. Some institutions are raising tuition. Some are >> reorienting their programs away from the liberal arts and toward training > for careers. >> >> While some institutions are considering tuition freezes as a way of >> containing costs, the University of the South known as Sewanee, has >> gone even further. Last February, Sewanee cut tuition and fees for the >> 2011-2012 academic year by 10 percent. Last November, the school >> announced that for current students, costs for the 2012-2013 year were >> frozen at $41,518. Then in January of this year, the university froze >> the annual costs for incoming freshmen in 2012 at $44,630 for four years, > or through the spring of 2016. >> >> Sewanee Experiment >> >> Sewanee wants to address the spiraling costs of higher education, the >> lingering effects of the recession and the siphoning-off of prospects >> by state schools where student costs are rising in many cases due to >> cuts in state funding, even though costs remain lower than at private >> colleges. The tuition cut and freezes also reduce the pressure to buy >> attractive students with merit scholarships and help Sewanee compete >> with other private schools, where tuition and fees continue to rise >> much faster than the consumer price index. Sewanee now plans to > concentrate its financial aid on needy students. >> >> The marketplace has responded very positively to these actions. >> Applications for this fall have risen 15 percent from last year, and >> the quality of applicants has improved. The entering freshman class in >> 2011 numbered 433, up from 401 in 2010. >> >> The school has also become more selective, offering admission to 56 >> percent, compared with 60 percent earlier. It will be interesting to >> see if other colleges follow Sewanee's lead. >> >> (A. Gary Shilling is president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. and author of >> "The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow >> Growth and Deflation." The opinions expressed are his own. This is the >> second in a two-part series.) >> >> >> >> Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com >> >> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> Futurework mailing list >> [email protected] >> https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework >> > > _______________________________________________ > Futurework mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework > > _______________________________________________ > Futurework mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [email protected] https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
