That's not education, that's coaching. REH
-----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Harry Pollard Sent: Sunday, July 29, 2012 11:07 PM To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION Cc: Keith Hudson Subject: Re: [Futurework] Brilliant analysis of future jobs and trends But, what if the education enslaves? Harry \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ On Sun, Jul 29, 2012 at 9:25 AM, Ray Harrell <[email protected]> wrote: > Next thing we will see will be studies on the genuine value of governments > versus wild west corporations. "Governments don't help all that much, may > as well not have them and trust your gun." The neo-Corporatist right wing > has been pushing such studies for at least ten years here. Personally, I > believe education and competence is the only basis of freedom. Only > education can conquer the insecurity that is the root of the mental slavery > we are encountering at the moment. There is a lot of writing about this > by the American Founders and especially Thomas Jefferson. > > > > REH > > > > From: [email protected] > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Keith > Hudson > Sent: Sunday, July 29, 2012 1:13 AM > To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, , EDUCATION > Subject: [Futurework] Brilliant analysis of future jobs and trends > > > > Quite the most brilliant analysis of education and job trends in > America I have yet read appears as an op-ed on Bloomberg website. I've > copied it here in case it is soon replaced. > > Keith > > How Recession Will Change University Financing > > A. Gary Shilling > > The latest recession will probably be seen as a turning point for > college and university financing. > > Indeed, the initial reaction by many youths to soaring unemployment > was to stay in or return to college to wait out the bad times and get > better prepared to face a tough job market. For-profit and community > colleges have been especially attractive, and in the fall of 2011, > there were 22 percent more students enrolled in the nation's 1,200 > community colleges than in the fall of 2007. Nevertheless, less than half graduate. > > Also, those now leaving college are finding few jobs. Only 54 percent > of those age 18 to 24 are employed, the lowest share since data began > to be collected in 1948, and the unemployment- rate gap between this > demographic group and all working-age adults is the widest on record. > Only 49 percent of graduates from the classes of 2009 to 2011 found > jobs within their first year out of school, compared with 73 percent > of those who graduated three years earlier. About 54 percent of > bachelor's- degree holders under 25, or about 1.5 million people, were jobless or underemployed last year. > > In addition, there is now research challenging the economic value of a > college education. Data comparing the average earnings of college > graduates at each age with those of workers with only a high-school > diploma indicate that the first group has an advantage of $1 million > or more for full-time work from age 25 to 64. But college-bound > students usually have better abilities, better grades, more maturity, > better support from home, higher test scores and better job prospects > than those who enter the workforce out of high school. > > Lifetime Income > > Furthermore, the raw lifetime-income differences don't account for > tuition costs, interest on student loans, lost wages while in college, > and the discounting of future earnings. > > Various studies that take these things into account indicate that each > year of college adds 6 percent to 10 percent to annual incomes, so > lifetime earnings increase by a range of $300,000 to $600,000, not $1 > million or more. The College Board calculates that using 2008 data, a > student entering college in 2010 at age 18 who borrows his way to a > degree earns enough by age 33 to make up the cost, including wages forgone and loan interest. > That's a 5 percent to 6 percent return on investment - -- meaningful > but not huge. These results partly reflect the 184 percent increase in > real tuition costs in the past 20 years, which has occurred as the > real pay of college graduates has risen only 9 percent. > > The cost of college certainly makes raising children more expensive. > The Agriculture Department reports that a family with $59,410 to > $102,870 in pretax income will spend almost $300,000 to raise a child > for the first 17 years. But that doesn't take into account the unpaid > time spent on parenting, including income forgone by parents who stay > at home or work less in order to care for their offspring. It also > doesn't consider the opportunity costs of not investing the money > spent on the child, or college costs. There are estimates that raising > a child to age 22, including college, would about triple the cost, to about $900,000. > > With few job prospects and high levels of student loans -- 55 percent > of the > 2010 graduates of four-year public institutions left school with debt > averaging $22,000 -- many young people are disillusioned. The average > real debt for new graduates rose 24 percent from 2000 through 2010. > And about a third of those who are employed take jobs that don't > require a four-year degree. > > Liberal Arts > > Most thought that a bachelor's degree was the ticket to a well-paid > job, and that the heavy student loans were worth it and manageable. > And many thought that majors such as social science, education, > criminal justice or humanities would still get them jobs. They didn't > realize that the jobs that could be obtained with such credentials > were the nice-to-have but nonessential positions of the boom years > that would disappear when times got tough and businesses slashed costs. > > Some of those recent graduates probably didn't want to do, or were > intellectually incapable of doing, the hard work required to major in > science and engineering. After all, afternoon labs cut into athletic > pursuits and social time. Yet that's where the jobs are now. Many > U.S.-based companies are moving their research-and-development > operations offshore because of the lack of scientists and engineers in > this country, either native or foreign-born. > > For 34- to 49-year-olds, student debt has leaped 40 percent in the > past three years, more than for any other age group. Many of those > debtors were unemployed and succumbed to for-profit school ads that > promised high-paying jobs for graduates. But those jobs seldom > materialized, while the student debt remained. > > Moreover, many college graduates are ill-prepared for almost any job. > A study by the Pew Charitable Trusts examined the abilities of U.S. > college graduates in three areas: analyzing news stories, > understanding documents and possessing the math proficiency to handle > tasks such as balancing a checkbook or tipping in a restaurant. > > The results were deplorable. Half the graduates of four- year colleges > and three-quarters of those from two-year institutions lacked the > skills to understand credit-card offers. They also couldn't interpret > tables relating exercise to blood pressure or understand newspaper-editorial arguments. > > And what's expected of students at all levels has been dumbed down > tremendously in recent decades. Perfect scores on SATs used to be > unheard of. Now they're routine. > > Furthermore, the best graduate students in the top universities are > often foreigners. And they come from countries that have much cheaper > education systems. Yet American 15-year- olds rank in the middle of > the pack in math, reading and science scores, and their high-school > graduation rates are below international averages. > > Education Standards > > As higher-education quantity has soared, quality has dropped. Many > institutions are mere diploma mills, graduating students of limited > capability. Wall Street companies and management consultants fawn over > MBAs from Stanford and Harvard, but won't even interview the legions > of night-school MBAs, who were taught by poorly paid adjunct > professors at lesser institutions. > > The realization that many recent college graduates were poorly > prepared for nonexistent jobs, that they will be burdened for years > with crushing student loans along with the resulting frustration, may > be bringing about a great > revelation: Going to college doesn't make you smart and ready for a > good, well-paid job. There's little causal relationship between going > to college and financial success despite the statistical link. And you > can't prove causality with statistics. > > Indeed, causality probably runs the other way. Today, most smart > people go to college, especially as the top institutions beat the > bushes for able, but disadvantaged, students with brains who lack legacy or other connections. > But bright people would be successful without college, as was common > before the days when a degree became almost mandatory. This direction > of causality is also suggested by the high dropout rates of low- > income students, who often lack the intellectual preparation for > college. Furthermore, those who demonstrate the brains needed for > college while in high school usually enter four-year institutions and graduate. > > A minimum of a bachelor's degree is needed to be considered for a > decent job; it's the initial screen used by most employers. And, of > course, employers generally are assured that top school graduates have > the best prospects for success -- whether it's because those > institutions do a great job at education or because they attract the > cream of the crop. At the same time, so many people graduate from > college that even bartenders have degrees. Did the chemistry courses > teach them how to mix martinis? The money spent on people who don't > require more than a high-school diploma for their jobs is wasted, as is their time in college. > > Vocational Training > > If it becomes widely apparent that college doesn't make people smart, > high-school students will probably be much more efficiently directed > to institutions that match their capabilities. Those with high IQs, > grades and test scores will be encouraged to attend four-year colleges > and universities. Those in the middle will be guided to community > colleges with the option of transferring to four-year institutions if > they do well. And less-able students will be channeled toward > vocational training for occupations that suit them and often pay very well. > > Employers could encourage the rationalization of post- secondary > education to match ability with the proper educational and training > institutions by making it clear that a college or graduate degree by > itself doesn't cut much ice. Those who don't come from credible > institutions or can't pass rigorous tests need not apply. This would > discourage many from spending their time and money on worthless > degrees and encourage them to pursue more fruitful education and training. > > Just consider the demand for carpenters, plumbers, electricians and > mechanics, and the high pay they now command, even in this weak economy. > Community colleges with two-year courses in technical specialties are > training people for these jobs and for manufacturing positions such as > machinists, robotics specialists and other highly skilled trades. An > estimated 600,000 skilled middle-class manufacturing jobs remain > unfilled nationwide, even as millions of Americans are still > unemployed. German companies with operations in the U.S. such as > Siemens AG, Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and Robert Bosch GmbH are transferring their nation's system here. > It involves apprentice programs in partnerships with technical schools. > > The student-loan glut is depressing college financing, but so too are > other woes unleashed by the recession. With high unemployment, > depressed incomes, still-reduced investment portfolios and collapsed > house prices, alumni giving is under pressure. And it is likely to > remain so in the > slow-economic- growth atmosphere of deleveraging that will probably > take another five to seven years to complete. > > The financial status of students' parents will remain troubled for the > same reasons. Many, as they approach retirement, will confront vastly > inadequate savings and need to save for their own well-being, as well > as to help finance their kids' educations.Home equity used to be > available to fund children's college tuition, but no more. > > Declining Appeal > > In 2010, one-third of parents surveyed by the education- lender Sallie > Mae strongly agreed that children should attend college for the > experience, regardless of the effect on their potential earnings. In > 2011, that number slipped to 24 percent. > > Most college endowments have recovered from the huge losses of 2008, > but remain more cautious, with weaker gains likely in future years. > They are now prepared for lower returns as they emphasize dividends, > investment-grade bond interest and other here-and-now income rather > than pie-in-the-sky capital gains. > > According to a new study by student-loan provider Sallie Mae (SLM), > grants and scholarships fell 15 percent in the 2011-2012 academic year > to $6,077 on average from $7,124 in 2010-2011. This category includes > money from colleges as well as scholarships from other institutions > and federal funding such as Pell grants. > > State governments, hard-pressed by persistent budget deficits and > vastly underfunded pension plans, are cutting costs, including aid to > state colleges and universities. After decades of growth, state > funding for higher education has fallen 15 percent since 2008, > adjusted for inflation. Federal funding for university research is also declining. > > Responses to the crisis in higher-education financing are developing > and varied. Some institutions are raising tuition. Some are > reorienting their programs away from the liberal arts and toward training for careers. > > While some institutions are considering tuition freezes as a way of > containing costs, the University of the South known as Sewanee, has > gone even further. Last February, Sewanee cut tuition and fees for the > 2011-2012 academic year by 10 percent. Last November, the school > announced that for current students, costs for the 2012-2013 year were > frozen at $41,518. Then in January of this year, the university froze > the annual costs for incoming freshmen in 2012 at $44,630 for four years, or through the spring of 2016. > > Sewanee Experiment > > Sewanee wants to address the spiraling costs of higher education, the > lingering effects of the recession and the siphoning-off of prospects > by state schools where student costs are rising in many cases due to > cuts in state funding, even though costs remain lower than at private > colleges. The tuition cut and freezes also reduce the pressure to buy > attractive students with merit scholarships and help Sewanee compete > with other private schools, where tuition and fees continue to rise > much faster than the consumer price index. Sewanee now plans to concentrate its financial aid on needy students. > > The marketplace has responded very positively to these actions. > Applications for this fall have risen 15 percent from last year, and > the quality of applicants has improved. The entering freshman class in > 2011 numbered 433, up from 401 in 2010. > > The school has also become more selective, offering admission to 56 > percent, compared with 60 percent earlier. It will be interesting to > see if other colleges follow Sewanee's lead. > > (A. Gary Shilling is president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. and author of > "The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow > Growth and Deflation." The opinions expressed are his own. This is the > second in a two-part series.) > > > > Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com > > > > _______________________________________________ > Futurework mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework > _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [email protected] https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [email protected] https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
